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It is estimated that China pumps roughly 30 billion cubic meters of water every year into the northeast. Most of this water is for irrigation purposes and some is for domestic use. The water table has been dropping in these parts at the rate of 5 feet per year. In shallow aquifers, the water table has dropped from about 15 feet in 1959 to about 145 feet now. Other aquifers are running dry. In some places, the water table has dropped below 200 feet. All this has happened because farming depends on groundwater.
As a matter of fact, groundwater depletion in the Yellow River basin has reached such alarming proportions that the great river is unable to reach the ocean for months. The longest period was for 200 days, a few years ago, during a dry spell.
Mindful of impeding disaster, China has asked the World Bank groundwater advisory team to develop sustainable water management plans. If China does not contain the problem soon, then the impact on its agricultural economy could become serious within the next 20 years.
In addition, China is already dusting off a grandiose project of transferring water from the south to the north. The project will transfer 12 trillion gallons of water from the south to the north via three canal systems. Some parts of the canal systems are already under construction. The upper Yangtse River basin diversion project is marked to be the main source of water and is currently under planning and awaiting engineering approval.
Another water diversion project from the Tsandpo-Brahamaputra River in Tibet to the northeast is still in its conceptual stage. China could face great difficulty in this project since the river flows into India, which is unlikely to approve any Chinese plans to divert water, especially that which flows naturally into its territory. The urgent need for water could lead to a conflict between the two countries in a struggle to grab water resources.
Chinese agriculture might appear prosperous today, but it could go into a tailspin within the next two decades when its population exceeds 1.5 billion.
Rapid urbanization is an additional burden that is depleting groundwater. Large quantities of groundwater are pumped into cities for domestic use. Once drawn from the ground, it cannot be deposited back. Besides, cities do not have large catchment areas to store any unutilized water. In China, 300 large and small urban areas depend on groundwater. As per current estimates, the water withdrawal is so high that soon cities will face water shortages. A similar situation exists in India where bureaucratic tangles further compound the problem.
Other large cities in Asia like Bangkok and Jakarta, and Sydney in Australia, are all facing water shortages. A glaring example of excessive groundwater pumping is Mexico City. Because of its geography – surrounded by mountains – this city does not have access to any surface water. About 15 million residents of the city depend on the water aquifer below the land. Too much water withdrawal from the aquifer has resulted in its rapid depletion. This has created structural problems for new and old buildings, which are sinking.
In the United States, groundwater is responsible for half of domestic water usage. The country has been withdrawing groundwater at a faster rate than any other country. The Atlantic coast has been experiencing this problem for years. As a result, water in perennial streams is considerably low. Wherever coastal aquifers have emptied, saltwater intrusion has begun.
On the Gulf coast, groundwater pumping has increased tenfold over the past 50 years. As a result, groundwater has sunk to 200 feet, except in the Houston area where it has sunk to 400 feet, as opposed to 30 feet, earlier. This area is the most affected by saltwater intrusion. In the south and central desert areas, groundwater depletion is a more serious problem. As a result, the land surface continues to subside, resulting in damage to roads, buildings and other structures.
This is evidence that the U.S. is in no better shape than any other country, in terms of its depleting groundwater reserves.
Groundwater is normally replenished with rain and melting snow, which percolates slowly in the soil and collects in cavities as low as 30 to 40 feet and, in other places, 200 feet below the land surface. The replenishment process is slow and it takes millions of years for the aquifers to fill with water, although low-lying catchment areas fill up faster. Compared to the rate of replenishment taking place, it will be too late for aquifers to fill up in time to balance the depletion.
In conclusion, it appears that China, India and the United States, along with a few other countries, will run out of groundwater within two to three decades from now.
India created a problem for itself in its north and northwest regions by changing crop patterns. It switched to water-intensive rice cultivation and, since, has been on the verge of exhausting its groundwater. China is no better. Its northeast breadbasket that produces the bulk of the nations’ crops has already run out of water. Sadly, the United States is also exhausting its greatest natural water resource in the Ogallala aquifer.
Once lost, none of this water can be re-deposited and this will have catastrophic effects on life in general.
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(Hari Sud is a retired vice president of C-I-L Inc., a former investment strategies analyst and international relations manager. A graduate of Punjab University and the University of Missouri, he has lived in Canada for the past 34 years. ©Copyright Hari Sud.)
