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Land warfare is ongoing in an “arc of crisis” stretching from Israel to Pakistan, as terrorist suicide bombers battle regular state armies. These non-state actors employ hit-and-run tactics in a closely coordinated manner to cause maximum damage to civil society.
These terrorists have no qualms about causing collateral damage to civilians, hospitals, train stations, schools and colleges. Two prime examples in recent times are the 9/11 attacks on the World Trade Center in New York and the Pentagon in Washington, and the attacks in Mumbai exactly one year ago, when ten young suicide bombers held the city and the government to ransom for 60 hours and caused damage worth millions of dollars.
The destruction caused in the 9/11 attacks changed the United States from an open society to a fortress. And India is spending more than a billion dollars to revamp its coastal security and marine policing.
Sea warfare changed radically after the U.S. warship USS Cole was attacked and crippled in Aden harbor on Oct. 12, 2000 by a simple fishing boat packed with explosives. The boat, guided by two suicide bombers, cost a few thousand dollars but disabled a US$300-million destroyer for over three years.
Sea pirates operating in and off the Somalia coast also employ jihad-style tactics. They can use simple contact and antenna-moored mines to cause extensive damage to expensive surface and subsurface sea combatants.
The captains of SSBN and SSN ballistic nuclear submarines and aircraft carriers give mined areas a wide berth. The damage caused to the U.S. Navy’s missile-guided frigate, the USS Samuel B. Roberts, in 1989 by a floating mine had the embarrassing consequence that warships entering the Gulf began taking cover behind tankers and ships that they should have been protecting.
U.S. amphibious operations planned during Operation Desert Storm in the Gulf in 1991 were nullified as mines laid by Iraqi forces hit landing ships.
The end of the Cold War changed the naval emphasis to littoral warfare, or operations in coastal waters. However, ships built for mid-ocean combat are seriously hampered in coastal waters and a complete revamp is occurring in major navies. Littoral combat ships are now under production to meet the requirements of the 21st century navies.
Air warfare in asymmetric combat was redefined on Sept. 11, 2001 when al-Qaida terrorists used civilian aircraft kamikaze style to bring down the twin towers of the World Trade Center in New York. This innovative methodology focused attention on civilian air travel as never before and governments worldwide rushed to prevent a recurrence.
Many nations have beefed up their security to guard against terrorist threats involving hot air balloons, light aircraft and commercial airlines as potential weapons to launch attacks.
High-tech devices like unmanned aerial vehicles are used by the United States in Afghanistan and Pakistan to bomb terrorist hideouts. They are also used to carry out surveillance over a limited area prior to manned missions.
However, terrorists have found new ways to beat such technology by mapping every turn, dip and ditch in the topography and ambushing foreign army troops by leading them into falsely camouflaged targets. Pakistan recently claimed victory over the Taliban by a sustained bombing campaign in Waziristan – but U.S. and British army commanders wanted to know where the dead bodies were. The limitations of air forces in asymmetric war campaigns are being increasingly revealed.
Countering the asymmetric warfare employed by terrorists is high on the agenda at government-to-government meetings, especially between the United States, China and India.
All terrorist paths currently converge in the Afghanistan-Pakistan region. Pakistan is seriously wilting and is on the threshold of becoming a failed state like Somalia. A terrorist attack to capture Pakistan’s nuclear warheads is a nightmare scenario.
If the terrorists achieve such a capability, the monarchies of the oil-rich countries of the Middle East will be the first targets. This tactic to cause death and destruction in the energy-exporting economies would not only cause massive disruption within the Gulf region but also worldwide, especially to oil-importing nations.
The hit-and-run tactics of terrorists that arrive unseen and melt into the background can be combated by search-and-destroy missions of capable forces. Boots on the ground are what matter. They can be launched from mobile sea forces with the increased use of helicopters.
Asymmetric warfare will be with us well into this century unless a meeting of minds occurs and weapons are converted into ploughshares.
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(Captain Devindra Sethi is an alumnus of India's National Defense Academy, the College of Defense Management, the College of Naval Warfare, and the War College in St. Petersburg, Russia. He is a successful entrepreneur in the maritime industry and fluent in English, Russian and Hindi. ©Copyright Devindra Sethi.)
