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In this fifth part of a hypothetical scenario following the terror attacks in Mumbai, India, Pakistan has incurred heavy losses and considers asking the United States and China to broker a ceasefire.

Indians, however, are in no mood to end hostilities unless Pakistan dismantles its entire jihadi infrastructure that includes its spy agency, the Inter-Service Intelligence. The United States backs India’s conditional demand to end the war.

In the meantime, India readies its missiles for another strike. This is in response to Pakistan’s strikes on Trombay and its oil platform off Mumbai. Liquid filled Prithvi-1 and Agni-1 and 2 missiles are readied for action in the states of Punjab and Rajasthan. The 1,000-pound conventional warheads with high accuracy are capable of knocking out an airbase or an entire logistics area. In addition, its recently acquired Smerch rocket system is deployed, which can destroy forward staging areas and troop concentrations with pinpoint accuracy. India is poised to fire its missiles.

On the seventh day of hostilities, analysts believe that Pakistan has made a grave tactical error by bombing Trombay and India’s oil platform and would suffer heavy consequences.

Four Prithvi-1 missiles leave their Indian launchers early in the morning. Three minutes later the first missile arrives at Pakistan’s Rahimyar Khan military base from where the missiles to Trombay and the oil platform were fired. The first missile impacts the base on the eastern edge of the cantonment while the second hits the city’s railway yard and control infrastructure. The third and fourth demolish the cantonment command and control and the ammunition dump. The target is a flaming hulk.

The Agni-1 missile launched from India’s northern state of Uttarakhand heads towards Pakistan’s Rawalpindi cantonment area. Its intent is more political than military, although Rawalpindi is a major military cantonment. By hitting the city, India wants to remind the Pakistani people that Rawalpindi is no longer invincible as originally made to believe by the Pakistani government.

The missile hits Chakalala airbase with thousand pounds of explosives. Its loud roar is heard for 20 miles. Everything at Chakalala including the air control tower, aircraft hangars and other infrastructure is reduced to ashes. The battle is not going Pakistan’s way and hints at pursuing peace.

Within minutes of the strike, Pakistan launches its 700-kilometer range Shaheen-1 missile at New Delhi. Although aware of the heavy Indian defenses around New Delhi, the missile is fired as a retaliatory move.

The missile hits the Hindon airbase near New Delhi and puts it out of commission. However, underground aircraft hangers escape destruction while everything on the ground is flattened.

Pakistan has confused India’s defense forces by changing the course of the missile several times during flight with a high altitude chase plane guiding it to its destination. Had India concentrated on shooting down the chase plane, results would be less severe for Hindon.

India readies a second major missile strike on Karachi harbor. If blocked, it will cut the U.S. supply line to Afghanistan and force the Americans to ask Pakistan to pursue peace. The strike also has a political purpose. By knocking a bulk of Pakistan’s port infrastructure it will isolate Pakistan from the rest of the world for a long time.

Three Agni-1 missiles are readied for action in central India. U.S. satellites monitoring India’s moves somehow miss the preparations. The missiles carry conventional warheads. Pakistan and the United States get the information but only after the missiles leave their launchers. This is an expensive strike for India, but India is in no mood to risk any more jet fighters.

As the missiles race through the six minutes of travel into Karachi, a U.S satellite signals Pakistani military headquarters that Karachi port will be history soon. Three minutes later, Pakistani army orders all available missiles to be readied for action. The Indian missiles strike Karachi port, turning it in smoldering ruins. Its petroleum, oil and lubricant storage depots had been destroyed earlier. This time, the port facilities become history.

Feverish preparations get under way in Pakistan to launch as many missiles as possible at India. Their targets are Mumbai, New Delhi and nuclear power stations. This is Pakistan’s last hurrah before pursuing peace.

At this stage, the U.S. president speaks with his Pakistani counterpart. So does the U.S. joint chief of staff with Pakistan’s chief of general staff. They tell the Pakistani top brass to end hostilities. They warn that the United States will intervene and destroy all missile sites if their advise of peace is not heeded. A similar message is then relayed to India.

The United States readies its 7th Fleet, fitted with Tomahawk missiles, in the Indian Ocean. The missiles can be launched very quickly.

India has completed its objectives while Pakistan wants to escalate the war to revenge its damage. India tells the U.S. president that if Pakistan attacks vital targets like New Delhi or its nuclear plants then it will retaliate in similar fashion.

Diplomacy is now in top gear. The U.S. president seeks British, Chinese, French and Russian help to broker peace negotiations. World leaders urge both sides for restraint and ask Pakistan to dismantle their entire jihadi infrastructure. Moreover, they do not want this war to turn into a nuclear exchange.

However, India and the United States are not sure whether all Pakistani nuclear bombs have been destroyed.

An early understanding is reached. In return for Pakistani restraint India will unblock the naval blockade of Karachi. Then, the United States will undertake a technical cum humanitarian effort to salvage whatever is left of Pakistan’s nuclear factories destroyed by the Israeli strike. Also, the United States will position its Patriot missiles in and around Islamabad, as Pakistanis do not trust India and Israel.

So far the tricky issue of Pakistan’s jihadi infrastructure and their spy agency, the Inter-Services Intelligence, has not been resolved. India insists that Pakistan should destroy both. However, they are Pakistan’s vital instruments for low intensity war in times of peace and Pakistan is not willing to give it up easily.

It is now a matter of time before diplomats hammer out a deal to dismantle Pakistan’s jihadi infrastructure and the ISI.

India has its own agenda - to push beyond the “Line Of Control” in Kashmir and grab Pakistani occupied Kashmir, which had been under Pakistani occupation for the last sixty years. If that comes true, then it will mean a permanent loss of prestige for the Pakistani army.

So far the media propaganda in Pakistan is that they are winning the battle. They have no idea that its nuclear capabilities have been wiped out. Soon the Pakistani leadership flashes a signal to the U.S. president of their agreement to most, if not all, of India’s demands.

The war heads for a conclusion after seven days of hostilities. India’s losses are considerable, but it has resources to replace them. These are expected in any battle with a worthy foe.

Pakistan’s offensive capability for the next half a century has been wiped out. Their air force, navy and nuclear capabilities have been badly damaged. Thanks to the United States, their land forces remain intact. With their major weapons gone, Pakistan will not be able to launch another Mumbai attack for a generation.

(This is a fictional scenario, and is not intended to describe actual events.)

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(Hari Sud is a retired vice president of C-I-L Inc., a former investment strategies analyst and international relations manager. A graduate of Punjab University and the University of Missouri, he has lived in Canada for the past 34 years. ©Copyright Hari Sud.)