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Counting its losses on the fifth day of the conflict, India has lost half of its frontline fighters; two destroyers damaged in a sea battle, three airbases damaged in the states of Punjab and Rajasthan and a badly hit air base in the city of Jamnagar are out of commission.
Pakistani losses are insurmountable. A bulk of its U.S.- made F-16 fighters have been destroyed and – barring a few nuclear bombs still intact in Baluchistan – its nuclear capability has been wiped out.
India has achieved its initial objective of destroying Pakistan’s terror infrastructure, including the headquarters of its spy agency, the Inter-Services Intelligence. Two submarines and two destroyers have also been sunk.
It is time to pursue peace or fight to the finish. A ground assault by Pakistani land forces in the Indian state of Jammu has not met its initial objectives and is a lost cause. India’s land forces are awaiting orders to push toward the cities of Multan and Bahawalpur in Pakistan’s Punjab state.
The Pakistanis have concentrated the bulk of their armor in the region between the Pakistani border town of Kasur and Khemkaran in India’s Punjab province. They want to avoid the mistakes made in their war against India in 1965, when they lost huge numbers of tanks in a battle here. Their plan is to control the Jalandhar-Beas Bridge and cut off India’s communication lines with its frontier forces in the states of Punjab and Jammu and Kashmir.
For India, the issue of Pakistan’s nuclear weapons still remains, as it was unable to destroy all its weapons in two days of air raids. Although the United States has information on Pakistan’s remaining nuclear arms, it has not passed it to the Indians. Concerned about Pakistan’s remaining nuclear stockpile, India activates its own nuclear command. The United States has the capacity to disable any nuclear attack on both sides and sends its warship, the Nimitz-class super carrier, to the Arabian Sea.
On the fifth day of hostilities, U.S. diplomatic hotlines with both India and Pakistan are very active. The United States wants an end to the hostilities, to which India agrees, but Pakistan wants revenge, largely encouraged by China. Pakistan informs the United States that it will respond with a nuclear attack if India makes any more moves.
China wants to help Pakistan with arms and aid but finds communication lines blocked. Sending supplies by air is dangerous with all airfields under Indian attack. The sea route is also difficult with the port of Karachi in flames. The only possible route to Pakistan is by land through the Karakoram highway, but it would take 20 days for supply trucks to reach the battle zone by this route.
The Pakistanis plead with the Chinese to open a northern front in Ladakh, India’s mountain hold in the northeast, but the area is blocked by snow. China’s only chance is to strike India’s northern airfields. The United States warns China to stay out of the conflict. The Russians endorse the American warning and urge the Chinese to stay out of the war, which is not theirs.
Failing to make any headway in the land battle and losing out at sea and in the air, Pakistan has one more offensive in place – a missile strike. The Pakistanis have a multitude of Chinese and North Korean missiles, which have a range of 300 to 1,200 miles. Though not highly accurate, they can still wreak havoc with conventional warheads. With nuclear warheads they could wipe out whole cities.
Knowing that the United States is monitoring the situation, Pakistan decides to strike with conventional warheads.
A salvo of six missiles positioned around Rahimyar Khan military base is readied for action. The target is India’s nuclear facility at Trombay, near Mumbai. A hit on the research reactors with a 1,000-pound explosive would practically flatten them.
The United States and India notice the Pakistani preparations. All available resources including multiple batteries of missiles to defend the Trombay facility are activated around Mumbai. As U.S. monitors have not picked up any nuclear activity in Pakistan, they inform India not to use nuclear weapons for a retaliatory strike.
The Indians complete their defense preparations and wait for the missile salvo. Mumbai is tense. Only seven minutes separate the missiles from their point of launch at Rahimyar Khan and the target near Mumbai. A successful hit could change the course of humanity.
Out of six missiles fired, three drop into the sea and race toward an offshore oil platform near Mumbai. The other three missiles head toward Mumbai. Tense Indian anti-missile crews track their trajectories. At about 100 miles from the target, India’s anti-missiles automatically take to the air.
These defensive missiles successfully intercept two incoming Pakistani missiles and destroy them. The third incoming missile is missed as it heads toward Trombay with 20 seconds to impact. Fingers crossed, everybody prays.
The missile misses the Trombay reactor site and hits a residential colony two miles from the target. Three high-rise buildings are affected. Hundreds are dead and injured.
The three missiles heading toward the oil-pumping platform are close to impact in 60 seconds. There is no anti-missile defense in this area, but the sea acts as a natural defense at long distances and confuses the missiles’ guidance systems. In short, its “circular error of probability of impact” gets bigger. Two of the missiles hit the sea floor about 500 meters from the oil platform, causing a big explosion in the sea. The impact sends huge but harmless waves toward the platform.
The third missile hits the platform’s helipad. The 1,000-pound explosive destroys everything above the main platform deck together with the oil-pumping hardware and the control room. Below the top deck damage is less severe, yet it is shaken like a tree. However, the platform had been deactivated since the outbreak of hostilities and there is no loss of life.
Pakistan has successfully destroyed India’s only offshore oil production facility. But it is still not satisfied and seeks revenge on India’s nuclear facilities, which it missed again.
At 11 p.m. on the sixth day of the ground battle, near Khemkaran in Punjab, a Pakistani armor division commander orders his staff to make a decisive move into India. He gives the order without consulting his superiors, as the commander is mad at the Indians and the Israelis for destroying Pakistan’s nuclear facilities. He picks a route to enter India, believing that the Indians will not know it, and prepares to launch a surprise attack the next day.
Pakistan’s army command, however, finds out about the plan and orders the commander not to implement it, thinking the Indians know the entry route. However, the commander refuses the order from his superiors. The Indians, in fact, have known about this route for years and plan an ambush that will destroy the Pakistani frontline armor division.
Pakistani headquarters seeks U.S. help to stop the errant commander. The United States responds by sending an armed drone into action. It has to act before the Indians ambush the Pakistanis.
The drone lets loose a Hellfire missile from 30,000 feet, which hits the command and control vehicle and blows it up. The commander is killed instantly and communications with his troops are broken.
The advancing troops are surprised at the developments. Junior commanders contact their headquarters and acknowledge orders to turn back. A major disaster for the Pakistani army has been averted.
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(To be continued. Part V scenario – Pakistan pursues peace. This is a fictional scenario, and is not intended to describe actual events.)
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(Hari Sud is a retired vice president of C-I-L Inc., a former investment strategies analyst and international relations manager. A graduate of Punjab University and the University of Missouri, he has lived in Canada for the past 34 years. ©Copyright Hari Sud.)
