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In this third part of a hypothetical scenario following the terror attacks in Mumbai, India, Pakistan looks to attack India’s nuclear facilities after India destroys its uranium and plutonium production facilities and two nuclear weapons production facilities in Punjab.
Pakistan’s target is India’s nuclear research and development facility in Trombay near Mumbai and the nuclear power plant in Rana Pratap Sagar in the Indian state of Rajasthan. Indian’s other nuclear facilities are further away and not easy targets.
From Pakistan’s perspective an attack on Trombay has greater value. If successful, it could halt India’s nuclear program for years. However, the Pakistanis have a problem. A bulk of their top line jet fighters have either been destroyed or disabled. Older French-built Mirage–III and Chinese-made fighters are an easy prey for Indian fighters. A large armada of planes could succeed in attacking Trombay but would leave the country defenseless.
A naval bombardment is possible only if Pakistan’s navy ventures into the open sea. So is a suicide commando mission, which could knock down some facilities at Trombay. Getting 40 marine commandos to Trombay is problematic, however.
The terrorist captured in Mumbai has confessed seeing Pakistan’s army personnel undergoing marine commando training in Karachi. Some years ago, Pakistan had sought U.S. help in training its marine commandos which had been provided. Based on these facts a naval commando raid on Trombay looks possible.
India, on the other hand, tallies up its air losses of the past three days. Some forward airbases in Rajasthan, Punjab and Kashmir have been bombed while the one at Jamnagar has been knocked out of action. These were heavy losses and it cannot afford more now. So, risky operations are curtailed.
In addition, India has a major task ahead. Two nuclear weapons facilities in Sindh and two in Baluchistan have been missed. These have to be neutralized permanently; otherwise India’s future is bleak. Out of frustration, Pakistan could use the remaining nuclear weapons on India and ignite a nuclear war.
On the fourth day of battle, India plans a decisive raid on the Sindh nuclear weapons sites. Israeli tactical help is requisitioned. The Israelis do not wish to share intelligence received from the United States directly with India, but they agree to lead Indian planes to the exact locations of the nuclear weapons complex. They will fly their AWACS and electronic warfare planes to help the Indians.
Early in the morning, 16 Indian fighters and bombers fly from bases in Rajasthan in the direction of two nuclear weapons sites in Sindh province. For this mission, Indian jets fly at treetop level to avoid detection. Two Pakistani air patrol pilots on sentry duty first spot the incoming Indian armada and sound the alarm. Pakistani Air Headquarters orders all available fighters to the combat zone.
An epic air battle ensues. Pakistan targets the electronic warfare planes first, which are rescued by two Indian fighters. Within six minutes of battle, six Pakistani and six Indian planes are downed. Pakistani planes fly west to regroup. Seizing the opportunity, Indian bombers unleash their bombs dead on target. The exploding ammunition in the facility confirms the hit while the remaining Indian planes escape aided by Israeli AWACS.
An Indian air battle commander turns back to confirm the extent of the damage. This is a mistake. A Pakistani missile fired from the ground hits the wing of his plane, which plunges to the ground.
In the meanwhile, Pakistani naval commandos in a bid to attack Trombay leave Karachi for an unknown destination, which is a trick to fool Indian intelligence. They are heading to Sir Creek area, an inhospitable location. The sea journey from there to Trombay will take only two days.
The heavily equipped commandos leave Sir Creek a day early for the planned hostilities. But, on seeing an Indian naval flotilla headed for Karachi on the first day, they break radio contact with their base in Karachi to prevent Indians from intercepting their radio signals. They spend two days at sea waiting and then on the fourth day they head for Trombay.
As most of India’s navy ships are pursuing Pakistani ships in and around Karachi, the commandos have clear sailing from Sir Creek until about 30 miles from their target.
The Indian Coast Guard completely misses the approaching commando boats, which are in stealth mode and stay undetected. Just then, a fishing trawler accidentally comes into the commandos’ path and is immediately shot. Within four minutes the trawler sinks. However, the trawler captain radios marine control in Mumbai about the approaching enemy boats before abandoning ship.
Since the Mumbai carnage, the marine and port authorities have been extraordinarily alert. As they sound the alarm, surveillance planes begin scouring the sea. It is late in the evening and darkness has engulfed the sea. The commandos with their deadly cargo are only an hour away from their intended target.
It does not take long for Indian naval intelligence to track the commando’s destination. They have 45 minutes to get their act together. If the commandos come close to their target, then with a few well-placed shots, they can disable the reactor and wreak havoc at the nuclear laboratories. The Indian Navy rushes two fast patrol boats to the area. Flares begin to light the sea.
The commandos are now in communication with their local shore help who inform them that their position has been discovered. In a hurry they pick the research reactor as their first target and get ready to launch an attack. To their utter surprise, a surveillance plane appears overhead, which is guiding shore defenses toward the commando boats.
Unmindful of danger, the Pakistanis approach the reactor area and fire their first missile. It hits the target. But this light missile does not have enough punch and bounces off the smooth surface of the reactor dome and instead hits a nearby control room and ancillary facilities. Damage is heavy. Two more missiles fired concurrently hit the laboratories next to the reactors, which catch fire. Within minutes, the commandos have inflicted considerable damage.
With their initial salvo, the position of the commandos is now known. An Indian naval shore-based fighter locks the coordinates obtained from the surveillance plane. As the commandos ready their second salvo, the fighter overhead fires its homing missile. It hits one of the boats loaded with missiles and ammunition, which explodes in a fireball. The other two commando boats are now in mortal danger.
Within minutes, fast Indian naval patrol boats set their sights on the commando boats. Escape is impossible. They decide to fight and take shots at the patrol boats instead of their original target. But they are no match for the superior Indian naval boats, which sink the second commando boat. The third disappears in the darkness of the sea.
The Pakistani raid on Trombay is a success and the nuclear facility is considerably damaged. Now, if the Pakistanis follow it with an air attack, Trombay will be history. But that does not happen.
At the end of the day Pakistan’s losses are high; it has lost most of its nuclear sites except the one in Baluchistan. In return it has downed a dozen Indian planes and damaged the nuclear facility at Trombay.
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(To be continued. Part IV scenario – Missile war, fight to the finish. This is a fictional scenario, and is not intended to describe actual events.)
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(Hari Sud is a retired vice president of C-I-L Inc., a former investment strategies analyst and international relations manager. A graduate of Punjab University and the University of Missouri, he has lived in Canada for the past 34 years. ©Copyright Hari Sud.)
