Mumbai carnage Part 2: Israel joins India

By Hari Sud
Column: Abroad View

Published: January 02, 2009

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Toronto, ON, Canada, — In this continuation of last week's scenario, outlining a possible response from India to the Mumbai terror attacks, Israel allies with India to root out Pakistan’s weapons of mass destruction. While India is focused on snuffing out Pakistan’s terrorist infrastructure, Israel wants to prevent the clandestine spread of nuclear weapons to Arab nations.

Besides, Israel also wants to avenge the torture and murder of Israeli citizens in Nariman House during the Mumbai carnage. Instructions to carry out the terrorist operation were received from Pakistan, as unearthed by U.S. intelligence satellite networks.

Now, things are getting worse for the Pakistani army and air force. Its navy has retired to Gawadar after suffering major losses on the first day of battle. The United States agrees to indirectly support Israel by providing intelligence, but prefers to remain unidentified. However, it wishes to see Pakistan’s nuclear capability wiped out. Also, the war on terror in Afghanistan and protecting its supply routes through Pakistan weighs heavily on its mind.

Israeli intelligence has details of Pakistan’s nuclear program but is not sure where the weapons are located, as the Pakistanis shunt them as a safety precaution. The United States, however, knows their whereabouts and can guide Israeli jets to their exact location. The locks on the weapons – permissive action links -- provided by the United States in 2005 deny unauthorized access, but raise an alarm when shunted, giving the United States critical information on their location.

Although the Pakistanis try to disable the PAL locks, they risk disabling the weapon on each attempt. So, they decide to leave them as they are as the plan is to launch them quickly. They estimate 12 hours to a nuclear attack on India.

The Israeli-Indian joint mission is to first destroy Pakistan’s underground uranium and plutonium production facilities and then snuff out the bombs, which Pakistan has readied for action. Israel is entrusted with the first part and India with the second.

Israel does not want any Indian support for its part except landing facilities for its airborne warning and control system aircraft and electronic warfare planes, and other bombers and planes used for refueling.

On day three of the hostilities, Pakistan opens a front in the state of Jammu. With huge losses already suffered in the air and at sea, it is left with only one choice – to open up a land front in the Jammu area and cut the Indian supply line to Kashmir.

The Pakistani army opens up a division-level operation in the Chhamb sector, which comes as no surprise for India, which has anticipated it. India’s plan is to hold and stall, and deliver a knockout punch elsewhere. If the Pakistani action persists, then India’s plan is to cross the Line of Control and head toward Muzaffarabad in Pakistan-occupied Kashmir. India’s goal is to capture this city and neutralize its infrastructure, which is a hotbed for terrorists to launch terror activities against India.

Meanwhile, the Pakistanis are unaware that Israeli jets, loaded with laser and global-positioning-system-guided bombs, have taken off from three Israeli airfields. The jets stick to the sea route and begin their 4,500-kilometer journey over the Red Sea, Gulf of Aden and the Indian Ocean and then turn north and climb to a high altitude to pass over the Iran-Pakistan border. Their anti-radar detection devices help evade detection en route and are refueled twice in the air on their five-hour journey.

Pakistani intelligence gets word of the Israeli AWACS and electronic warfare planes in the air and issues a red alert for the Pakistani army and air force. All available fighters are scrambled to air patrol duty. Action on the Chhamb sector is halted, which has not made much headway anyway.

Israel attacks from the west where Pakistani air defenses are most vulnerable. They unleash their bombs on Sargodha, Chasma, Khushab and three other nuclear locations and destroy the heavily defended nuclear sites in a single blow.

Now, it is India’s responsibility to take out the six secret nuclear sites where nuclear warheads are mated to launch devices. They also have to destroy communication networks connected to these sites to ensure that no planes or missile-carrying trucks are able to move around.

The Israeli strike at Sargodha is highly successful and permanently seals the underground nuclear bunker where bombs are kept ready for action. Also, as the bunker is away from the main airfield, it fails to alert the airfield, thanks to Israeli electronic warfare planes flying in the vicinity.

Additional bunker busters are dropped from 30,000 feet at Chasma and Khushab where uranium is enriched and plutonium is processed 70 feet below ground level. Both targets are blown to bits. Israeli electronic warfare planes flying overhead confuse Pakistani defenses. Stealth paint on Israeli planes camouflages them, making it difficult for Pakistani fighters to find them.

After completing their missions, the Israeli planes land at Indian airfields. Pakistani planes pursue them but fly straight into the Indians waiting for them at the border and are forced to turn back.

Now it is India’s turn to dismantle the remaining sites holding nuclear weapons. Two are located in Punjab, two in Sindh and two in Balochistan. Thirty-six Indian jets take off from five different airfields for the mission. Their bunker busters open up the underground facilities where bombs are stored. In the Sindh desert, Pakistani bombers wait in readiness to take off when bombs are delivered to them. However, attacks by Indian bombers render the runways unserviceable.

If this strike is unsuccessful, a second Israeli mission will be flown. However, Indian bombers arrive in a well-rehearsed exercise over two locations in Punjab. Action in Sindh and Balochistan will follow suit.

Two sites in Punjab, 70 miles apart, are heavily defended. An 18-aircraft Indian armada flies over the targets late in the afternoon. The first wave of attack silences all the radar sites connected to the secret locations.

Then, electronic warfare planes jam and confuse the defenders. However, Pakistani planes take off from neighboring airfields to counter the Indians. Six Indian Sukhois meet 13 Pakistani defenders. The Pakistanis down two Indian Sukhois, but lose seven of their own. Now the way is clear to the secret sites. Indian bombers pound the locations. Ammunitions stored at the sites explode and the sky is filled with smoke.

Two nuclear sites in Sindh are incorrectly bombed as the camouflaged locations are hard to find. An Indian commander decides to make a second pass at low altitude, which proves disastrously wrong. Four Indian planes fall to Pakistani defenders.

The site in the mountains of Balochistan is repeatedly bombed but its location facing west has made it impossible to get good results as it is located a mile inside a natural cave. India loses four planes in this unsuccessful action.

At the end of the day, results are not encouraging for India. It has lost 10 top-line jets. In contrast, Israel successfully completed its mission.

(To be continued. Part III scenario – India seeks to denuclearize Pakistan. This is a fictional scenario, and is not intended to describe actual events.)

(Hari Sud is a retired vice president of C-I-L Inc., a former investment strategies analyst and international relations manager. A graduate of Punjab University and the University of Missouri, he has lived in Canada for the past 34 years. ©Copyright Hari Sud.)