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Still to be established is the complicity of Pakistan itself. The government has called the terrorists “non-state actors” in an attempt to save the Pakistani security services from embarrassing revelations.

There was an immediate call for retribution in India, but Britain and the United States persuaded India to give the Pakistani government time to act internally. India relented, but kept the battle-axe ready lest the Pakistanis failed to take the friendly advice.

Indian nerves were further frayed by the revelation that additional terrorists stayed on the mother ship when ten of them headed to Mumbai. They could be hiding anywhere on the western Indian coast and could unleash fresh terror anytime. That again prompted calls for Indian retribution.

With India ready to mount commando raids to Muzaffarabad in Pakistan-occupied Kashmir and to Muridke in Lahore, the Pakistanis went ahead and arrested a few of the masterminds of the Mumbai terror strike. It was a clever ploy to calm the United States and follow U.N. directives.

These arrests did not impress India, however. The lone surviving terrorist in Mumbai is leading Indian and U.S. investigators to new revelations. Had he not been taken alive, the Indian case would have been weak; his survival has been the key to the investigations. He is the one that pointed an accusing finger at Pakistan’s Inter-Services Intelligence and the Lashkar- e-Taiba terror group.

The Pakistani action robbed India of an opportunity to grab the key leaders of the terror outfit, but did nothing to the Pakistani army or intelligence agency. If left untouched, soon they will pick another target in India.

The Pakistanis today have few options. They must dismantle the terror and jihadi infrastructure and the ISI’s jihadi mindset. Otherwise they will face retribution.

Here is a possible scenario:

It is an air action day. The Pakistani air force, noting that India is hours away from action, sends its F-16s on a pre-emptive strike on forward Indian air bases. The F-16s find their mark on two Indian airfields but their major strike, destined for New Delhi and Agra, fizzles out.

These strikes are stopped dead in their tracks, with half a dozen strike planes shot down over New Delhi skies. The strike bound for Agra, which is a major Sukhoi and air defense base, comes via Rajasthan. It is a big error on Pakistan’s part. Although the F-16s have the endurance to do the job, they are helpless in front of Indian Sukhoi fighters.

With nowhere to run, they fall victim to the highly superior Sukhois. None of the F-16s return to tell the tale. Within hours of the outbreak of hostilities, half of Pakistan’s F-16s fighters have hit the dust.

Now it is India’s turn to turn the heat on. There is no need to hit Pakistan’s air bases after its losses. The Indian objectives are the training bases for the ISI and Lashkar-e-Toiba in Karachi, Lahore and Pakistan-occupied Kashmir.

The Indian navy, having sailed close to Pakistani waters a few days earlier, unleashes the same attack it executed in December, 1971. It attacks port facilities in Karachi, this time with 300-kilometer-range BrahMos missiles. The fires in Karachi port are reminiscent of 1971.

The Pakistani navy comes out in the open and fights a bitter battle. Two Indian destroyers are hit with Exocet missiles, putting them out of action. In return, two Pakistani submarines and four destroyers are sunk. The Pakistani navy begins retiring toward Gawadar port, hoping that India will give chase and draw the Chinese into action, but India is in no mood to pursue them.

With victories in the air and sea, India begins the task of leveling the terror camps in Pakistani-occupied Kashmir, Lahore and Karachi. First is the Muridke terror camp near Lahore. By the end of the day it is repeatedly attacked. Civilian causalities are inevitable; it is the price they have to pay for so many attacks on civilians in India.

Next to be leveled are known terror camps in Pakistan-occupied Kashmir. Surprisingly, the Pakistani air force does not intervene, having lost its will to defend the terrorists. It must preserve its strength for a second day of strikes on Indian economic targets.

As night falls, raids on each other’s forward bases continue without great success. The second day of battle will be crucial for both India and Pakistan.

On the second day, the Pakistani air force’s air armada of 30 planes in a well-rehearsed maneuver takes off to cripple India’s offshore oil drilling platform in the Arabian Sea. If successful, India’s domestic oil supply will be cut. Unfortunately for the Pakistanis, the Indian air base at Jamanagar stands in the way. This airbase is Pakistan’s first priority, and waves of Pakistani planes come to attack it, damaging the base, runway and control tower.

The ground air defense performs well. They keep the Pakistanis from making repeated runs over the base. At the same time an Indian trap specifically set to destroy the returning Pakistani planes is sprung. Lacking fuel and ammunition for close combat, they fall prey to India’s newly acquired beyond visual range strike. None of the attacking planes escapes back to Pakistan. Ejecting pilots are captured.

The Pakistani planes advancing to the Indian oil-drilling platform are now without a fighter escort, and are met with another iron fist. India’s naval air arm and shore-based fighters take up the fight. With nowhere to run and completely off-course, they ditch themselves in the sea. The Indian navy picks up a few surviving pilots.

India then goes for Pakistan’s ISI headquarters in Rawalpindi. It is the most difficult exercise for India in this garrison town, with a major airbase to its credit. Still, the attack must be executed even with great loss of life and planes. It is India’s stern message to the Pakistani army.

Six Jaguar fighter-bombers, equipped with bunker buster bombs and missiles, take off from a forward airbase in Punjab in late afternoon. They are escorted by a flight of MIGs and Mirage fighter-bombers. In all 18 planes are involved. Their mission: to attack the ISI headquarters. This is a four-hour mission fraught with danger. Remaining F-16s from Sargodha and Rawalpindi air bases will make this mission difficult. If unsuccessful, it will be a major morale boost to the Pakistanis.

This mission meets the anticipated results; although three attacking MIGs, two Mirages and a surveillance plane are downed, the Jaguars find their mark. Two of the attacking Jaguars are also hit by ground fire. The remaining four reach their target and unleash their napalm and bunker buster bombs over the ISI headquarters. When they escape, it is a smoldering ruin with its underground command center torn out like a can of beans opened violently. India’s No. 1 enemy and the terrorists’ headquarters has been given a deathblow.

Day two is also highly successful for India. With its basic objectives complete India waits for the next Pakistani move.

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(To be continued. Part II scenario – Israelis take the fight to Pakistan. This is a fictional scenario, and is not intended to describe actual events.)

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(Hari Sud is a retired vice president of C-I-L Inc., a former investment strategies analyst and international relations manager. A graduate of Punjab University and the University of Missouri, he has lived in Canada for the past 34 years. ©Copyright Hari Sud.)