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Obama's victory gives North Korea a choice

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Seoul, South Korea — Barack Obama's victory in the U.S. presidential election will offer a chance for North Korea to build confidence with the Democratic administration and achieve its long-standing goal of normalizing diplomatic ties with Washington, officials and analysts in Seoul say.

But they warn North Korea could face tougher challenges than it did with the Bush administration unless the communist country gives up its nuclear programs and other weapons of mass destruction.

"The election of Obama is welcome news for North Korea," a South Korean government official said, noting that the Democratic candidate has vowed to pursue "aggressive, sustained and direct diplomacy" in dealing with Pyongyang.

Obama has tried to distance himself from the Bush administration's hard-line policies toward North Korea, highlighted by his labeling of Pyongyang as a "rogue state" and a charter member of the "axis of evil."

During his campaign, the Democratic candidate also vowed to seek direct dialogue with North Korean leader Kim Jong Il to resolve the nuclear standoff if he won the White House race. This would be a stark departure from the policy of his Republican predecessor, who has ignored Pyongyang's calls for face-to-face talks.

"Mr. Obama's victory is likely to embolden North Korea in its bid for more concessions over the nuclear standoff,” the government official said.

North Korea has made no official comment on the U.S. election, but it has favored Obama in that its media has blasted his Republican rival John McCain as "a variant of Bush" and "nothing better than a scarecrow of neoconservatives."

Professor Park Han-shik of the University of Georgia, who recently traveled to Pyongyang, said the North hoped to see Obama win the election and was eager to have serious talks with the new Democratic administration.

"North Korea had hoped to improve ties with the United States, but it was blocked by the Bush administration's hard-line stance," Park told Seoul's Yonhap news agency representative in Atlanta.

In an apparent bid to demonstrate its hope of having serious talks with the new U.S. administration, Pyongyang has stepped up its campaign to show that its leader, Kim Jong Il, thought to have suffered a stroke in August, was healthy and governing state affairs.

Pyongyang's state-run media released a new batch of photographs of Kim's public appearances on the very day of the U.S. election, a move meant to quell rampant questions over his health and capability to run the nuclear-armed country.

The photos showed Kim, 66, posing with dozens of soldiers during his "on-site" inspection tours of two military units. On Sunday, official media released another set of photographs of Kim watching a football match. The reports did not say when or where the visits took place.

Seoul's government officials and analysts said the release of the photos just ahead of the U.S. presidential election seemed to be aimed at showing that the North's supreme leader is ready to meet the new U.S. leader.

"Improved ties with the United States is necessary for the North Korean leader to carry out his promise of making his impoverished country into a 'kangsong taeguk' (great country with a powerful military and economy) by 2012," said Kim Kun-shik, a professor at Kyungnam University in Seoul.

The North wants more economic and political benefits from the United States in return for disabling its nuclear weapons program, analysts say.

Pyongyang expects Obama to follow in the footsteps of his Democratic predecessor, Bill Clinton, who promised to provide light-water nuclear reactors for electricity in the North and other aid packages under a 1994 deal.

The Obama camp's foreign policy team includes Madeleine Albright, who visited Pyongyang and met the North Korean leader to discuss normalization of diplomatic ties between the two countries during the waning days of the Clinton administration.

A diplomatic source said Pyongyang and Washington would pursue a "comprehensive resolution" of the nuclear issue, the settlement of peace on the Korean peninsula and diplomatic ties after Obama takes office early next year.

"The two sides are expected to have high-level meetings and possibly summit talks as early as next year," the source said.

But many analysts in Seoul caution North Korea against excessive optimism, pointing out that the Obama administration would resort to tough policies if Pyongyang refused to abandon its nuclear drive.

They say U.S. Republicans and Democrats share the common policy goal of disarming North Korea of its atomic bombs and other weapons of mass destruction and curbing nuclear proliferation in the region and elsewhere.

"The two parties have just differed over how to achieve the goal," said conservative opposition lawmaker Song Young-sun, a former defense analyst. "Whereas Republicans pursue a pressure-first approach in dealing with the North, Democrats seek a dialogue-first stance," she said.

If the dialogue fails to bear fruit, Democrats would choose tougher options to end the nuclear standoff, Song and other analysts said, recalling that the Clinton administration was on the brink of launching a surgical strike on North Korea's Yongbyon nuclear facilities in 1994 despite strong opposition from the South Korean government.










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