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Does the military build-up reflect misplaced Chinese reasoning that India can be dismissed as too orthodox to be taken seriously? The Chinese publication Global Times implied exactly that on Sept. 16. The answer is that China, in the last 50 years, has never taken India seriously.
Today, the Chinese military is a hugely expanded and modernized force, much stronger than what the United States faced in Korea in 1950, or India encountered in 1962, or the Russians faced in 1967 at the Ussuri River.
China’s US$60 billion plus military expenditure supports the 2.4 million People’s Liberation Army, 300,000 air force personnel and 200,000 servicemen in the navy. In addition, about US$30 billion a year is spent on a military industrial complex in central China, which is at the center of its three-tier modernization program. Although the military expenditure appears very large, it supports a very large manpower base and therefore is average.
China keeps about 1 million men on its eastern seaboard across from Taiwan, 200,000 at the Vietnamese border and about the same number in Tibet opposite India. Around 600,000 are based on the northern border to confront any Russian aggression and the balance lie in central China as reserves. In the past two decades, China’s military logistics have benefitted from greatly improved communications systems.
Although China appears to possess an intimidating force, it is simply too many military boots deployed across the country. In comparison, Taiwan with U.S. help, Russia with its own military power and India with Israeli, Russian and U.S. hardware are not sitting idly waiting for the Chinese to walk over them. Their combined military strength far exceeds China’s. Their military hardware, excluding nuclear weapons and strategic missiles, is on par or better than China’s. So China cannot pose a grave danger to them.
The Chinese army also has a few disadvantages. In Tibet, it is handicapped by a hostile population and uncertain communication lines. Against Taiwan, the presence of the U.S. 7th Fleet frustrates its ambitions. Against Vietnam, their 1979 victory brought such big losses of men and materials that China may not wish to fight again.
China’s military doctrine is as ancient as China itself. It can be summed up in two strategies: on land, fight the enemy with overwhelming force; at sea, breach any naval blockade that undermines China’s trade or security. Therefore, there is a big emphasis on building a navy. The current military budget roughly translates into 60 percent for the army, 25 percent for the navy and 15 percent for the air force.
Until about 10 years ago, China had a largely outdated military. In the last few years, China has begun a three-stage 50-year military modernization program. From 1990 to 2010, it will upgrade its military hardware with Russian and local supplies. The second stage, from 2010 to 2020, will see the introduction of modern weapons. Their induction will be accelerated allowing China to emerge as a leading power in the region. In the third stage, from 2020 to 2050, China hopes to become a world power.
The Chinese navy is the current focus of this modernization. In the last 10 years, it received 10 submarines and four modern destroyers, and several naval defense systems, all from Russia. Future plans include building aircraft carriers and matching fighter aircraft. Additional modernization includes landing ships and nuclear powered submarines, and long-term plans include building a navy capable of sailing long distances. The new naval base on Hainan Island is a challenge to the U.S. 7th Fleet.
Some military hardware in China’s arsenal is copies of Russian products whose capacity is dubious and performance average. In the last 50 years, China increased its military force to offset the disadvantage of poor-quality military hardware.
The Chinese air force will dump all its second-generation aircraft, dating back to the 1960’s, and replace them with SU-27s imported from Russia and local copies of F-16s dubbed the J-10. These fighter jets are capable except that their weapons systems, electronics and avionics are outdated. Without imported military technology, these cannot be improved. The import of AWACS from Israel would have changed the ball game. However, timely U.S. intervention prevented the technology transfer.
China will expand its strategic missiles in the coming decades, more to intimidate than to attack. These could never be used without a befitting reply. So these weapons are expected to stay in silos or in storage only.
China’s largest force, its army, has stayed fairly modern over the years. By improving mobility and communications it has a definite advantage over its neighbors. Capable of fighting short wars across its borders, it is a very potent force. The army with conventional missiles and cruise missiles could overwhelm its adversary. So its modernization is less important now.
China’s neighbors are preparing to meet its threat, however. Taiwan, Japan and India are at the forefront of military modernization. India, with its annual US$24 billion defense expenditure and 1.3 million servicemen in the army, navy and air force, is comparable to China. Its modernization plan includes purchases valued at US$40 billion in the next five years.
India’s advantage is its access to Israeli, French, Russian and now U.S. technology. Its Su-30 with Israeli avionics and Russian missiles is far more potent than China’s Su-27. Its future contracts for fighter aircraft with Russian, U.S. or French interests, together with Israeli AWACS, will put it leagues ahead of China.
French and Russian submarines in India’s hands together with two aircraft carriers and a major naval base in the western port of Karwar, similar to the one in Hainan, could disable any Chinese efforts to sneak into the Indian Ocean. Soon Indian nuclear-powered submarines will be prowling Chinese seas as well.
India’s advantage is reduced if its main rival, Pakistan, is factored in. If Pakistan entered the fray on behalf of China, other powers would similarly join in to dissuade Pakistan.
Although China has a capable military in Tibet, India could disable its communications lines within days after the outbreak of hostilities. Therefore, China’s military infrastructure close to the Tibetan border with India has its disadvantages.
The Taiwanese are always ahead of China’s military buildup. China can never stage a successful military action across the Taiwan Strait as long as the U.S. 7th Fleet is around. The acquisition of U.S. Aegis naval ships could neutralize China’s current advantages.
Fighting the Russians is an impossible dream for the Chinese, as they know all of China’s military hardware and so can easily neutralize it.
In short, China’s military modernization is largely intended to intimidate its neighbors. At the same time, the neighbors are keeping up with new military technologies to eliminate any large-scale Chinese military success.
China has a hawkish view of itself, but should not take its neighbors so lightly. It needs better advice on its military capabilities and better information about those of its neighbors.
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(Hari Sud is a retired vice president of C-I-L Inc., a former investment strategies analyst and international relations manager. A graduate of Punjab University and the University of Missouri, he has lived in Canada for the past 34 years. ©Copyright Hari Sud.)
