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Russia’s recognition of the two breakaway Georgian regions of South Ossetia and Abkhazia, after sending troops in to purportedly defend these regions from Georgian troops, set the tone for non-cooperation between the major powers on this issue. Georgia also cut off diplomatic relations with Moscow.
Both Russia and NATO have sent military vessels to the Black Sea, in addition to the U.S. ships, signifying that a military confrontation seems imminent.
This emerging crisis resembles the two Berlin crises as well as the Cuban missile crisis during the Cold War, which nearly led to war between the former Soviet Union and the United States. Tensions always remained high between the two superpowers owing to their ideological differences and geopolitical rivalry.
Within their spheres of influence, the two superpowers each deployed powerful weapons, with the ultimate weapon their nuclear bombs, capable of destroying the Earth a hundred times. The North Atlantic Treaty Organization led by the United States and the Warsaw Pact controlled by the former Soviet Union maintained an uneasy balance through negotiations when necessary.
With the end of the Cold War in the 1990s, the two former opponents began to cooperate with each other, exemplified by military agreements, economic cooperation and strategic engagements as shown by NATO’s new relations with Russia and common commitment to fighting terrorism.
On the other hand, as a historically influential nation, Russia cannot forget its former glory or completely abandon its global ambitions. Since 1991, Russia began a series of economic reforms. Vladimir Putin, who succeeded Russian President Boris Yeltsin in 1997, was able to improve the economy and also revive its military capabilities, gaining tremendous prestige in Russia and around the world. Although Putin handed his presidency to his chosen successor, he took the post of prime minister and remains a major force in Russian politics.
On the other hand, since the Cold War the United States has expanded its military influence into areas formerly considered part of Russia’s domain, particularly in Eastern Europe. Since 1999, eastern countries including Poland, Hungarian and the Czech Republic have gained NATO membership. In April, NATO signed accession protocols with Albania and Croatia, opening the way toward their membership in the organization.
In addition, the U.S.-led NATO conducted wars in the former Yugoslavia, which eventually resulted in its break-up into several separate states. More recently Kosovo declared independence and was recognized by the United States, with which Russia strongly disagreed. The United States was also accused of encouraging “color revolutions” in Central Asian countries, which Moscow regarded as threatening Russian stability.
Russia assumes that Western countries, particularly the United States, are using Georgia as a pawn in an ongoing game of strategic competition – particularly when they talk of admitting Georgia to NATO. The war in Georgia was Russia’s response to this encroachment on its traditional territory. Not surprisingly Russia chose to recognize the two Georgian states, in a tit-for-tat response to Western states’ recognition of Kosovo’s independence.
Although the crisis appears to be escalating toward confrontation between Russia and the United States, it is unlikely to generate another Cold War, for several reasons.
First, the mindsets of the nation states have changed greatly since the end of the Cold War. Both the people and their political leaders have realized the danger, indeed the madness, of confrontation. In the new era of globalization states prefer economic cooperation over military confrontation. National interests are pursued not with hard power but by soft power.
Secondly, while geopolitics still influences international relations, it is different from the Cold War era, when the balance of power caused states to befriend their enemy’s enemies. Weak states had to ally with the two major military blocks, while lesser powers like China were a card to be played between the two superpowers.
However, in the present international circumstances, states no longer feel the necessity of aligning themselves with a superpower. Small states still fear their potential enemies, but will not risk their basic values or interests to ally with a big power. For instance, China is a potential ally of Russia, but facing its own secession issues, it will not support Moscow in recognizing breakaway states.
Most importantly the big powers, such as China, Japan and the European countries, will never risk their interests by confronting the United States. Globalization has made their economies, technologies and politics interdependent, as well as their people and their welfare. What’s more, ideology no longer exerts an influence over states or dictates their behavior in an international crisis.
Thirdly, both Russia and the United States are well aware that neither the independence of Kosovo nor that of the Georgian breakaway regions is in their core interest. When real confrontation comes they will back off and negotiate, using their influence over smaller nations merely as bargaining chips.
Therefore the present Georgia crisis will not bring about another Cold War. It will diminish sooner or later. Still, it is advisable for states to exercise caution in using military power as a component in negotiations over conflicts. It is also important to be aware of cultural and historical factors with the potential to escalate conflicts into major confrontations. Prudent politicians should make efforts to dissolve the “the clash of civilizations” that Samuel Huntington has warned about.
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(Dr. Zhang Quanyi is associate professor at Zhejiang Wanli University in Ningbo, China, and a guest researcher at the Center for the Study of Non-traditional Security and Peaceful Development at Zhejiang University in Hangzhou. His research interest revolves around the creation of a world state. He can be contacted at qyzhangupi@gmail.com. ©Copyright Zhang Quanyi)
