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China scored a major victory in 1962 when it uprooted the Indian Army from the border town of Tawang. China later withdrew, and things were quiet until five years ago, when Chinese efforts to upgrade the area's infrastructure began again.
China's main aim is again the town of Tawang. Capturing it would catapult China into the master of Asia. China is confident of another military victory, based on its huge military buildup in the last 5-10 years, fueled by piles of cash earned by exports.
On the books, China's economy is double and its population 20 percent higher than India's. But Chinese statistics are questionable and the country exports 60 percent of its GNP. A recent report by the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace does not support China's economic assertions.
Economic aspects aside, China plans to spend US$57 billion on defense this year, with the navy as the favored service. The communist leadership can spend this huge amount with no questions asked, without parliamentary debate or scrutiny.
India spends about US$26 billion and has a lukewarm military modernization program that is frequently bogged down in parliamentary debates and approval processes. Hence the Chinese are way ahead in military buildup, although they are short on sophisticated arms technology. India bridges the volume gap with advanced arms from Israel, France and Russia.
The flip side of the equation is that China faces the might of the U.S. Seventh Fleet and the ultra-modern militaries of Taiwan and Japan, which ties down the bulk of its spending in the eastern sector.
Chinese reserves in Central China and armies facing India in Tibet, Russia, Myanmar, Thailand and Vietnam are long on manpower and short on punch -- which they overcome by building up an overwhelming numerical advantage.
India has similar issues, as 70 percent of its military budget is tied down in facing Pakistan and the Kashmiri front.
From 1962 till about 1995, all was quiet on the India-China border; occasional face-offs between border patrols were seen as mere posturing. The last large-scale firefight took place in 1967 at Nathula in Sikkim, where the Chinese received a severe mauling at the hands of Indian artillery over six days. The conflict ended by personal order from China's Chairman Mao Zedong. Since then not many shots have been fired.
Resolving border disputes has been a slow process, however. Through claims and counterclaims, China has let it be known that, for the sake of their prestige, they want the town of Tawang. It is prepared to withdraw all other claims. But India cannot agree to transfer the unwilling population of a town with a famous Buddhist monastery to China.
During endless talks at political and official levels in the past five years, China has struck an aggressive note. The tough talk has been well coordinated with its infrastructure improvement. In addition, the Chinese do not like the fact that India is matching their economic progress -- it damages their prestige.
India has taken full note of all China's military posturing. It got an eye-opener in 2006 when the Chinese ambassador to India, during a visit to India of the Chinese president, publicly asked for the return of Tawang to China. This request was repeated again and again, most recently during Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh's visit to China in January this year. After this deadlock was made public, the prime minister decided to visit Arunachal Pradesh to assert India's claim over the region.
The message to China was clear: India will stand up and China's military option will be blunted.
What does China have in Tibet with which to threaten India?
Tibet is a flat plateau mostly covered with snow at an average height of 7,000 feet. It has a very short growing and grazing season. It was ruled by a Buddhist theocracy until 1950, when the Chinese marched in and made themselves at home. Occupation was a bit bloody, with Khampa rebels extracting a heavy toll from the Chinese occupiers.
Trouble with India began when the Dalai Lama, Tibet's religious ruler, fled to India in 1959. China did not take kindly to this and decided to teach India a lesson. In 1962, it struck in a mountain war akin to Hitler's capture of the Maginot Line in World War II. China captured Tawang in 20 short days, then withdrew under international pressure.
The border dispute slumbered during the Red Guard era, and the post 1976 leadership postponed the issue. With the arrival of a new generation of leaders, the dispute has been revived.
Militarily, India believes that China has about 160,000 troops in Tibet, mostly to maintain order in the country and for border guard duty. The road and rail networks are designed for the free movement of these troops all across Tibet. With the completion of the Tibet-China rail network China can very quickly add another 100,000 troops from their central reserve in a matter of six weeks.
China has also built a major air force capability with multiple air bases and forward airstrips. Large planes can only be deployed sparingly in Tibet, however, as they cannot take off and land at 7,000 feet with a full complement of armaments.
China is reportedly positioning its intermediate-range missiles in Tibet to counter any Indian missile developments. One report has stated that one or two ICBM bases are also operational. ICBMs are strategic weapons with a nuclear warhead, generally with a range of 8,000 to 15,000 kilometers. These are not of great value for striking India.
Then why would China position ICBM bases in Tibet? It may be that China is building Tibet into its major military backyard, along the lines of what the Soviets had in Siberia and the United States has in its central mountains.
If that is true, it explains why China rushed to build the rail link to Tibet. With the rail link they can constantly shuttle ICBMs into position and avoid detection. The flip side is that 700 bridges and tunnels along the railway make movement a bit slow, and blocking the railway is easy with pinpoint cruise missiles.
This would explain why the Chinese have increased military pressure on India. What is India doing to counter China's moves?
Prior to the Indian prime minister's visit to China, the defense minister had visited Arunachal Pradesh and reported back to him. He reported sighting a phenomenal buildup of military infrastructure at the border.
The Indian Cabinet decided to create two additional mountain warfare divisions in addition to the eight it already had. These will be Arunachal-specific combat units. In addition, India is shopping for 140 ultra-light artillery pieces, which will be easy to move around. A huge number of heavy lift and combat ready helicopters will add to India's punch.
All this will be supported by an ultra-modern air force, comprising AWACS and combat planes. India's missile force, not very large and Pakistan-specific, will come in handy if China threatens the country with strategic weapons.
Militarily this will blunt any Chinese designs on the Tawang area.
Infrastructure improvements in the area have been put on a fast track. A rail link to Arunachal's capital of Itanagar will be built soon. A trans-Arunachal highway is in the works. Soon the troops in all forward areas can be reinforced by road and by air.
India's preparations are nevertheless defensive in nature, designed to deny China an upper hand. A wild card in this equation is Pakistan. Realizing that India is busy in the north, Pakistan could try to take advantage in the west. That is where a strategic relationship with the United States is important. Only Washington can keep Pakistan in check.
It would appear that India has decided to stand up to China over Tawang. Chinese military pressure will soon be neutralized with a comparable Indian buildup. If the Chinese lose or are forced to a draw in the Himalayas, they will lose face. The wise move would be not to start a conflict.
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(Hari Sud is a retired vice president of C-I-L Inc., a former investment strategies analyst and international relations manager. A graduate of Punjab University and the University of Missouri, he has lived in Canada for the past 34 years. ©Copyright Hari Sud.)
