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North Korea promised early this year to disable its main nuclear complex in Yongbyon, north of Pyongyang, and give a declaration of all its nuclear activities by the end of the year in return for international energy aid.
With the deadline just days away, however, the North has yet to carry out its obligation to provide a complete accounting of its nuclear programs. It has cited delays in the delivery of aid, which could jeopardize the landmark aid-for-disablement deal reached during six-nation talks last February.
Seoul officials, who have long floated optimism about the implementation of the nuclear accord, are increasingly concerned about a possible revival of the nuclear crisis, which could pour cold water on the festive inauguration of South Korea's new president in February.
Foreign Minister Song Min-soon has acknowledged efforts to end the North's nuclear weapons programs are "at a crossroads" due to the delayed denuclearization timetable.
"It is true that we are currently facing an obstacle," Song told a press briefing Thursday. "We are now focusing efforts on overcoming the obstacle" to keep the disarmament process on track, he said. "The nuclear disablement issue is like uncharted waters. The most important thing is to ensure progress amid stability."
Song cited the North's persistent denial of a uranium enrichment program as among the issues hindering the meeting of a year-end deadline for Pyongyang to declare its nuclear programs.
"We believe the North's uranium enrichment program is an issue that needs to be discussed further among related countries," he said.
Washington is calling for Pyongyang to fully clear up the suspicions about a uranium-based weapons program, including questions about how the centrifuges and aluminum tubes it had bought were used. But Pyongyang has flatly denied the existence of a uranium enrichment program.
The United States and North Korea also disagree on the amount of plutonium -- used to make nuclear bombs and warheads -- that the communist nation has produced. According to Japan's daily Tokyo Shimbun, the North's preliminary report said it has produced only some 30 kilograms of plutonium, far less than the 50 kilograms that Washington believes the North was capable of producing.
With the mounting disputes, the North has warned that it would slow work to disable its Yongbyon nuclear complex because of delays in the provision of the promised aid. As economic compensation was "being delayed," the North had "no option but to adjust the speed of the disablement process," Hyon Hak Pong, vice director-general of the North's Foreign Ministry, was quoted as saying by Japan's Kyodo News in its Pyongyang dispatch.
This was the first time for the North to threaten to stall the denuclearization process for "political" reasons, according to South Korean officials.
Under the Feb. 13 nuclear accord, the North's negotiating partners in the six-way talks have promised to give Pyongyang 500,000 tons in heavy fuel oil and the other 500,000 tons in energy-related equipment or alternate products.
The North received 150,000 tons of oil each from the South in July, China in September, and the United States in October. But Russia has missed a November shipment of 150,000 tons. The South also provided 5,010 tons of steel products to renovate its power plants earlier this month.
Seoul officials and analysts said the delay in the North's disablement and declaration is largely aimed at winning bigger concessions from the dialogue partners. Yoon Young-kwan, a Seoul National University professor and former foreign minister, interprets the North's delay as a tactic to boost its "leverage" to win more concessions from the Bush administration, which is eager for a diplomatic achievement with regard to North Korea.
"The North is expected to slow down the disablement work for one year or a year and a half, waiting for the next administration in Washington," Yoon told a policy forum in Seoul.
Cheon Seong-whun, a researcher at the government-run Korea Institute for National Unification in Seoul, said the North wants to press the United States to remove Pyongyang from its list of terrorist-sponsoring countries and end its restrictions against the North under the Trading with the Enemy Act.
But the United States is standing firmer against the North, calling for a complete and accurate declaration of all of Pyongyang's nuclear programs. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice has warned of "a crucial step" against the North if it fails to comply with its nuclear obligations.
Apparently in an angry response, the North's state-run Rodong Shinmun newspaper accused "bellicose forces" in the United States of behind-closed-doors preparations to ignite a second Korean War.
"This cast doubt on whether the United States really wanted dialogue, or whether it was attempting to mentally disarm North Korea and mount a surprise attack," it said, raising doubt about the future of the hard-won disarmament process.
