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South Korean officials welcomed the first direct communication between top leaders of the two Cold War foes, saying it would give crucial momentum to negotiations over North Korea's nuclear programs. But many analysts remain skeptical that the North's nuclear issues will be resolved before Bush leaves office in early 2009, citing major sticking points -- a suspected uranium enrichment program, nuclear warheads and proliferation activities.
Bush's letter to North Korean leader Kim Jong Il was delivered by U.S. chief nuclear negotiator Christopher Hill, who met twice with North Korean Foreign Minister Pak Ui Chun during his visit to Pyongyang earlier this week.
Given that Hill handed the letter to Pak just hours ahead of leaving Pyongyang, the U.S. envoy is believed to have tried to meet Kim for direct delivery. But Hill could not meet the North Korean leader, who was out of Pyongyang for on-site inspection tours of farms run by the military, according to the North's media reports.
The White House confirmed the delivery of the letter addressed to "Dear Chairman" Kim Jong Il, adding that it stressed the need for North Korea "to come forward with a full and complete declaration of their nuclear programs."
"President Bush wrote letters to all the leaders involved in the six-party talks last Saturday, Dec. 1," National Security Council spokesman Gordon Johndroe said in a statement. "In these letters, the president reiterated our commitment to the six-party (nuclear) talks and stressed the need for North Korea to come forward with a full and complete declaration of their nuclear programs," he said.
South Korean officials also said President Roh Moo-hyun had received Bush's letter, in which the U.S. president said "this is a very important moment," and stressed concerted efforts for faithful implementation of the six-nation agreement on the denuclearization of North Korea.
The letters were sent out at a critical juncture in the denuclearization talks, with growing concerns about a delay in the process to disable the North's nuclear weapons programs. The six-nation disarmament talks, which were due to open this week, have been called off due to a delay in Pyongyang's declaration of its nuclear weapons programs.
In an aid-for-disarmament deal last February, North Korea promised to disable its key nuclear facilities and declare all its nuclear programs by year's end. But Seoul officials said the list of the North's nuclear programs is unlikely to come within this year.
After his visit to Pyongyang this week, Hill acknowledged "differences" with North Korea on what the nuclear declaration should include. Washington wants it to be "correct and comprehensive," and address a suspected uranium enrichment program and any proliferation activities.
Pyongyang has flatly denied the existence of a uranium enrichment program and any transfer of nuclear technology or materials to other countries. But Hill said his government has "evidence" that North Korea purchased equipment to enrich uranium. He called on Pyongyang to fully clear up the suspicions, which include questions about how it used centrifuges and aluminum tubes it is known to have purchased.
North Korea also remains reluctant to declare its current nuclear weaponry stockpile, including plutonium, which is used to make nuclear bombs and warheads.
South Korean officials, who had been downbeat over the delay, expressed hope that Bush's personal letter to the North Korean leader would create momentum toward ending the nuclear standoff.
Foreign Minister Song Min-soon described Bush's letter as a "message to call for the North's decision" in return for normalization of diplomatic relations between Pyongyang and Washington.
"Currently the nuclear issue is at a crossroads where it may proceed towards a stable phase or to a rough road," Song told a Seoul forum. "The United States is preparing to remove the North from the list of terror-sponsoring states if the declaration is carried out to an acceptable degree," Song said. "North Korea should not lose this opportunity."
Other officials said they expect a positive response from Pyongyang to Bush's letter, noting that the North's state media reported that Kim Jong Il had received the letter, without mentioning its contents.
"Kim might reciprocate by sending his letter to Bush," said Jeong Se-hyun, a prominent North Korea specialist who served as Seoul's pointman on the North.
But according to a recent survey of North Korea experts in Seoul, Washington, Tokyo, Beijing and Moscow, pessimism about the resolution of the nuclear standoff is mounting.
"Analysts are increasingly skeptical about an early resolution of the North Korean nuclear issue because there are many stumbling blocks," said Dong Yong-sueng, head of the North Korean team at the Samsung Economic Research Institute in Seoul, who conducted the survey.
