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Analysis: Clouds over North Korea nuclear talks

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Seoul, South Korea — South Korean government officials were embarrassed Monday when they were informed by China that the six-nation talks on North Korea's nuclear weapons have been postponed, apparently due to Pyongyang's protest. Seoul officials were hopeful that the six-way talks expected to open this week would produce tangible progress toward disabling the North's nuclear program, which could boost the inter-Korean summit slated for Oct. 2-4.

A possible agreement at the summit on ending Cold War hostilities between the two Koreas and expanding cross-border economic ties would be a major diplomatic achievement for the South's outgoing President Roh Moo-hyun, who wants to perpetuate his engagement policy toward the North. The officials had hoped that rapid progress in the nuclear talks, combined with a possible summit agreement, would help craft Roh's image as a peacemaker before he leaves office early next year.

The sudden delay in the multilateral nuclear talks has clouded this hope and revived signs of skepticism following allegations about nuclear connections between North Korea and Syria, as well as U.S. consideration of a military option to end Iran's nuclear drive.

The nuclear talks, involving the two Koreas, the United States, Japan, China and Russia, were earlier expected to be resumed Wednesday, two weeks ahead of the inter-Korean summit. But Seoul's Foreign Ministry said it has been notified by China that the talks could not take place.

"China gave us an official notice today that the six-way talks could not open on Sept. 19," the ministry said in a short press release. "The Chinese side said it would discuss with the others concerned to set the dates (for a next round nuclear talks)," it said.

China has hosted the six-nation talks since 2003, aimed at resolving the nuclear standoff in a diplomatic manner. After on-off negotiations, the multilateral talks have produced a landmark agreement on "disabling" the North's nuclear drive in return for massive economic and political benefits.

China failed to give any reason for the delay, but a ministry official here said the North had boycotted this week's talks to protest a delayed shipment of energy assistance from China. Under an aid-for-disarmament agreement reached in February, the North pledged to disable its nuclear programs in return for 1 million tons of heavy oil aid. China had promised to provide 50,000 tons of fuel oil by the end of August, following South Korea, which has completed the delivery of the first 50,000 tons of oil. But the Chinese oil aid has not reached the North yet, officials said.

Foreign Minister Song Min-soon also said a "technical" problem had caused the delay in the nuclear talks. "North Korea should not stall the nuclear talks for the technical reason. It is urged to return to the talks," Song told reporters.

Yang Moo-jin, a professor at the University of North Korean Studies in Seoul, said the North's boycott of the talks seems aimed at warning China and other countries involved against neglecting their part of the aid agreement and raising its leverage in future negotiations. Other analysts said the North's boycott is a protest over recent allegations that North Korea was assisting Syria with a possible nuclear program.

In a swift response to the report about nuclear ties, Kim Myong Gil, deputy chief of the North Korean mission to the United Nations, denied the allegation. "They often say things that are groundless," Kim told South Korea's Yonhap News Agency.

One day later, however, U.S. Defense Secretary Robert Gates warned that the United States would have a "real problem" if Syria and North Korea are collaborating on a nuclear program.

Fearful of new tensions brewing between Pyongyang and Washington, the South Korean diplomatic chief dismissed the allegation about the nuclear connection, saying no one has any concrete evidence to prove the suspicion. "If Syria received nuclear materials from North Korea, it must have a facility to store the nuclear material, but as far as I know, Syria does not have any nuclear (storage) facility," Song said.

North Korea has also expressed concern over speculations about preparations for a military strike against Iran for its alleged support of terrorism and its nuclear program. "The United States is attempting to deprive Iran of its right for nuclear development," said the North's official Rodong Sinmun newspaper.

South Korean officials are concerned that the North may further delay the planned inter-Korean summit, citing new tensions with the United States. The summit was originally scheduled for Aug. 28-30, but the North requested to delay it due to damage from serious flooding in the country. Any further delay could cloud the outlook for the summit and damage the fragile inter-Korean reconciliation process, analysts say.










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