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With the competition accelerating, other small countries in Southeast Asia are weighing in and choosing sides, but South Korea has hesitated to join either bloc.
Considering its decades-long military alliance with the United States, aimed at curbing communist expansion in the region, it would seen natural for South Korea to join forces with the U.S.-led "ocean" camp that includes Japan, Australia, Singapore and India. Close U.S. ties are also necessary to resolve the North Korean nuclear crisis that has sharply raised military tensions on the peninsula, which has been keeping foreigners from investing in the geopolitically risky South Korea.
But the bilateral security alliance has been weakened in the wake of South Korean President Roh Moo-hyun's pursuit of a new role as a "balancer" between the region's great powers, in a departure from the country's traditional policy which was heavily focused on Washington.
Since taking office in 2003, Roh has sought to distance his country from the United States, while seeking unconditional reconciliation with North Korea. He has pledged to lay the groundwork for a self-defense system that would be independent of the United States within 10 years, before his five-year term ends in early 2008. He has also pushed to take back wartime control of South Korean troops from the U.S. military as part of efforts to bolster the country's self-defense capability, despite concerns that it would weaken the security alliance.
Seoul's relations with Japan have also steadily worsened in the aftermath of simmering history and territorial disputes. During the three days he spent in Sydney for a gathering of 21 Pacific Rim leaders over the weekend, Roh did not get together with Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, indicating strained bilateral ties. Roh did hold summit talks with his Chinese, Russian and Vietnamese counterparts on the sidelines of the Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) forum, however.
The series of moves has sparked speculation that Seoul is tilting toward China, South Korea's biggest trading partner. China has been South Korea's largest export destination since 2003, replacing the United States. China currently accounts for more than 20 percent of South Korea's total exports. Some lawmakers and scholars here have called for stronger ties with China to diminish U.S. influence in South Korea.
But South Korea can hardly join the Chinese-led "continental" security camp that includes Russia and Central Asian countries, ignoring its long alliance with the United States, which is still dominant in the region and greatly helped South Korea repulse North Koreans backed by China during the 1950-53 Korean War.
Seoul's concerns mounted when the United States, Japan and Australia used the APEC forum to build a trilateral military alliance, apparently targeted at China. The three allies joined forces with India and Singapore last week to launch their first military drills near the strategically sensitive Straits of Malacca, which followed a landmark military exercise in April among the United States, Japan and Australia.
South Korea was not invited to join the five-nation military exercise, though the Straits of Malacca is the key route for the energy-poor country to import oil and gas from the Middle East. South Korean officials downplayed Seoul's absence in the exercise, saying it will take more time to form a new security structure. South Korea's basic position is still to maintain a wait-and-see stance for the time being, government officials said. But analysts warn South Korea could be isolated from the security arrangements if it fails to have a clear position, saying a new security structure is rapidly evolving in the region.
"A new Cold War structure appears to be taking shape in the region with the deepening rivalry between ocean and continental forces," Lee Shin-hwa, a political science professor at Korea University in Seoul, said, referring to a series of military moves by the China-led camp.
Last week, China and Russia staged a joint military drill in an apparent response to the U.S.-led security camp's drills. The exercise came less than a month after China, Russia and Central Asian countries held six-nation joint military drills in Siberia, facing Japan. It was the first time that all six members of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization -- China, Russia, Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, and Kyrgyzstan -- participated in the joint military exercise.
"South Korea should refrain from sitting on the fence and align with countries that share the same values to raise its stake in the camp," Lee said.
