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They say the Kim Jong Il regime would not miss a "golden opportunity" to ensure its survival by normalizing ties with the United States which is seeking a "big deal" with the North to end the years-long nuclear standoff, which would be a diplomatic victory for the Bush administration.
The agreement in Geneva reached last weekend reflects the North's determination to end the nuclear standoff, analysts say. In a meeting with U.S. chief nuclear negotiator Christopher Hill, North Korea's Vice Foreign Minister Kim Kye-Gwan pledged to account for and disable all of its nuclear programs and facilities "by the end of the year."
The North already promised to shut down its nuclear facilities under the Feb. 13 agreement, but it was the first time for the country to agree on a timeline for denuclearization since the nuclear crisis erupted in late 2002. It was also the first time the North promised to declare and disable its uranium enrichment program, which could be used to make nuclear weapons, according to officials here.
South Korea has welcomed the North's agreement, though it was verbal, as a positive step toward disarmament and peace building on the Korean peninsula and a move to boost upcoming inter-Korean summit talks.
"The denuclearization agreement between North Korea and the United States is a part of the ongoing Korean peninsula peace process that would extend to the South Korea-U.S. summit, the six-party talks and the inter-Korean summit," President Roh Moo-hyun's spokesman said. "The South Korean government will make full and thorough preparations for the upcoming (diplomatic) events."
Roh plans to meet U.S. President George W. Bush on the sidelines of the APEC forum in Sydney on Friday. The meeting, which would focus on the North Korean nuclear issue, will be followed by six-nation nuclear talks next week and an inter-Korean summit in early October.
Officials said next week's six-way meeting could produce a documented agreement on the timeline to end the North's atomic programs. Foreign Minister Song Min-soon expressed a note of optimism, saying the disarmament process would enter "an untrodden path."
Suh Jae-jean, a researcher at the government-run Korea Institute for National Unification, said North Korea has come up with a "strategic choice" to get rid of its nuclear weapons programs in return for normalization of relations with the United States. "North Korea would abandon its nuclear weapons for survival," he said, noting the communist country has perceived better ties with Washington as the sole way to ensure its survival.
"The normalization of diplomatic ties with Washington will pave the way to form formal ties with Japan, which will provide the impoverished country a huge compensation fund for Tokyo's colonial rule," he said.
Hong Hyon-ik, a research fellow at Seoul's private Sejong Institute, also said the North is likely to dismantle all of its nuclear programs within next year. "North Korea and the United States are expected to exchange high-level officials late next month to prepare an end to the nuclear standoff before the Bush administration leaves office," he said.
But some analysts still remain skeptical about Pyongyang's commitment to dismantle its nuclear weapons, saying the North considers nuclear weapons as the ultimate deterrent to any effort to topple the communist regime. Pyongyang and Washington have yet to agree on how to disable plutonium-producing facilities, remove existing plutonium-based weapons and verify the disablement of the uranium-based weapons program, they said. The North could also retract its promises and turn the nuclear reactor on and reprocess the spent fuel at any time, the pessimists say.
