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This will take bilateral ties beyond 2020 and focus on Afghanistan-Pakistan relations, which currently affect all nations worldwide. The decision by Russia not to have any defense dealings with countries inimical to Indian sensibilities was one of the highlights of the summit.
The contrast with the drift in India’s relations with the United States could not be starker. In one year the current U.S. administration has dampened relations from the high reached under the previous U.S. government, notwithstanding the fact that the same political party, the Congress Party, is still in power in India after winning a thumping majority in general elections in May last year.
The Indo-U.S. nuclear power agreement attained under the George W. Bush administration remains unimplemented, as the U.S. side seeks to foist its laws on India, which the Indian Parliament will not countenance.
Defense cooperation has also slowed to a crawl. Major Indian organizations remain on the U.S. Entity List – which imposes restrictions on entities whose activities are deemed a threat to U.S. security and foreign policy interests – and U.S. laws like the Communications and Information Security Memorandum of Agreement are being legally examined with a fine tooth comb by the government of India.
U.S. President Barack Obama’s vision of a nuclear-free world desires all countries to sign and ratify documents like the Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty and the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, even though the U.S. Senate refuses to do his bidding at home.
At the same time, improvements are quietly being made to U.S. nuclear warheads, as approved by Obama, to enhance the reliability of these weapons in the 21st century – while the same improvements are denied to other countries. These contradictory stances will not bear fruit in this enlightened world.
Drastic budget cuts for U.S. armed forces have forced the U.S. military industrial complex to look toward India, which has embarked on a major military modernization program, for business. But these U.S. companies are hobbled by Cold War rules and regulations. Competing nations like Russia, the European Union, Britain and Brazil are walking away with lucrative contracts, as they do not have the kind of strict end user monitoring specifications that the United States imposes.
Meanwhile, U.S. energy lifelines in the Indian Ocean are being secured by the forward deployment of the Indian Navy at choke points in cooperation with U.S. ships. As numbers are dwindling rapidly in the U.S. Navy, due to a weakened economy, the reality of the situation at this end of the world is slowly dawning on U.S. politicians.
The first taste of the new geopolitical reality was handed out to the Americans at the climate talks in Copenhagen in February 2010 by the BASIC countries – Brazil, South Africa, India and China. The Obama plan to commence withdrawal from Afghanistan in 2011 has further weakened the U.S. diplomatic position. The rising powers of Asia, symbolized by India, Russia, China and the ASEAN nations, are preparing for the future in 2010.
There is still a vast body of people in India who believe that the United States has a lot to offer to democracies. But the narrow focus of the present U.S. government in talking only to the military in Pakistan, and the spectacle of seeing the U.S. president go cap in hand to negotiate with China, are discouraging even such people.
But there is still a way forward for the United States. The concert of democracies begun in 2008 should be pursued; in the maritime field the U.S. Navy is still by far the preeminent power. The finest U.S. export to the world is still its education system. Manufacturing could still come back to North America from China if only Wall Street would eschew financial engineering and the U.S. government would promote real engineering at home.
The rule of law is very weak in China – as Google is discovering. It would be better for U.S. companies to relocate to India, where the judiciary fiercely guards its independence. Many international companies are basing their research and development in India today, where the rules on foreign direct investment are very progressive for this type of industrial activity. Major U.S. commercial and manufacturing interests, which have been the country’s lifeblood, would do well to refocus from China to India.
The Russians are taking advantage of Indian laws and creating joint ventures with the Indian government and private enterprises, with government encouragement. In return, India has been given a contract with Russian company Elkon to mine uranium.
India’s Oil and Natural Gas Corporation is being accommodated in the Siberian oilfields; the Indian Space Research Organization is accessing Russian satellites and communications systems in civil and military applications; new contracts for civil and military aircraft are being drawn up between India’s Hindustan Aeronautics Ltd. and Russia’s Sukhoi Company; and Rosatom, Russia’s state nuclear energy corporation, is building 16 civil nuclear plants in India with Nuclear Power Corporation. .
These contracts were on the table for at least two years, but the short-term focus of the Americans has cost them not only the loss of these billion-dollar contracts but thousands of jobs – perhaps more as spinoffs in sales, marketing and maintenance contracts.
A rough calculation indicates that of the US$150 billion India wants to spend in five years, the Russian prime minister has walked away with at least half the budget. This is the result of a lack of long-term geopolitical vision and business sense in the United States – rather surprising, as the Indian economy is geared to consumption at home which translates into exports for the supplying nation, and that to a billion plus people, on par with China.
Considering the demographic challenge facing China due to its one-child policy, by 2020 India’s population under 35 years of age will be leading global economic growth. With both leading political parties in India pursuing similar economic growth plans, the economic future of India is in safe hands for this century.
India’s democracy, its soft power, English language skills, information technology industry, strong judiciary and need for infrastructure in virtually every field of business is and will be a strong catalyst for growth in this century. The United States needs the vision to focus on making India its partner and not a client as it rebuilds.
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(Captain Devindra Sethi is an alumnus of India's National Defense Academy, the College of Defense Management, the College of Naval Warfare, and the War College in St. Petersburg, Russia. He is a successful entrepreneur in the maritime industry and fluent in English, Russian and Hindi. He can be contacted at devsethi@gmail.com ©Copyright Devindra Sethi.)
