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The junta’s efforts in this regard started on Oct. 9 when Nobel Peace Prize winner Aung San Suu Kyi, who remains under house arrest, was driven to a government guesthouse to meet acting U.S. Charge d'Affaires Thomas Vajda, British Ambassador Andrew Heyn, who represented the European Union, and Australian Deputy Head of Mission Simon Christopher Starr for an hour to discuss the possible lifting of sanctions on Burma.
The surprise meeting with diplomats followed two consultation sessions in early October between Suu Kyi and the junta's liaison and Labor Minister Aung Kyi, to discuss her proposal of Sept. 25 to help end sanctions against the regime.
Now the United States has sent a remarkable mission to Burma to engage the military junta after decades of unfriendliness. Kurt Campbell, assistant secretary of state for East Asian and Pacific affairs, and Scot Marciel, his deputy, are scheduled to visit Burma on Nov. 3 and 4.
Campbell said the mission would head to Burma to follow up on talks held in September in New York with the minister of science, technology and labor, U Thaung. This meeting marked the highest-level U.S. contact with the regime in nearly a decade.
The U.S. diplomats will visit the remote administrative capital of Naypyidaw on Tuesday to meet Prime Minister Thein Sein, and will travel to Rangoon (Yangon) the next day to meet Suu Kyi and executive committee members of her National League for Democracy, a source in Rangoon said on condition of anonymity.
But the Americans are not likely to be granted a meeting with Than Shwe, head of the junta. It seems that he will be playing the game behind the curtain, as usual.
During testimony on Oct. 21 before a U.S. House of Representatives committee, Campbell cautioned, "We expect engagement with Burma to be a long, slow, painful and step-by-step process."
The National League for Democracy, the party of detained opposition icon Aung San Suu Kyi, welcomed the planned visit as a "good thing."
"They will also meet the NLD when they come. We welcome their visit and hope that Daw Aung San Suu Kyi will be allowed to meet Mr. Campbell,” party spokesman Nyan Win confirmed to the media.
The last time Suu Kyi met Western diplomats, Than Shwe spoke the same day in the capital about the general elections scheduled for 2010. He stressed that he would not yield to demands from domestic and international critics who say that the country’s military-sponsored Constitution should be revised ahead of next year’s elections.
The 2008 Constitution, the junta said, was “approved” by more than 90 percent of eligible voters during a referendum in May 2008. This outcome was widely dismissed as a sham, but the regime has disregarded calls from the international community and Burma’s main opposition party, the NLD, to review the Constitution.
Although there are 10 registered political parties in Burma, most of them are stock still. An electoral law is needed to allow new parties to form and register to contest the elections.
The NLD has set conditions for its participation in the elections, demanding changes in the Constitution of provisions that are not in harmony with democratic principles, and an all-inclusive free and fair poll under international supervision.
The Western democracies and U.N. Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon have warned that the world community would not recognize the election results unless the NLD participates and Suu Kyi is freed from house arrest, where she has been kept for 14 of the past 20 years.
The majority of Western nations have demanded that Than Shwe must release Suu Kyi and over 2,100 other political prisoners as a first step toward democratization in the country, which has been under military rule since 1962.
Burma has been under international sanctions since 1988, when the military mercilessly cracked down on pro-democracy demonstrations, leaving an estimated 3,000 people dead. The United States and European Union increased their sanctions after the junta refused to acknowledge the NLD's victory in 1990 elections, and then arrested opponents and suppressed all opposition. Most of the sanctions target the top generals in particular.
In addition to U.S. and EU sanctions, the regime is presently suffering assorted sanctions from Australia, Canada and Japan. It has been without development assistance from international financial institutions such as the World Bank, the International Monetary Fund and the Asia Development Bank. If the regime ignores calls to prepare for a free and fair election prior to 2010, international sanctions are likely to increase.
Than Shwe hinted this year that he would be willing to open a political dialogue with Suu Kyi if she agreed to work together on the sanctions issue. However, in a speech to the War Veterans Organization, he said that some powerful nations were playing many ways to force and influence Burma under various pretexts.
Thus, there is a contradiction between the regime’s engagement with Western diplomats and the aggressive speech at the war veterans’ meeting. The main aim of allowing the Lady to meet the diplomats seemed to be to ease the sanctions and persuade the world to support Burma’s version of “disciplined democracy.”
Military sources say the senior general and his top operators face difficulty in promoting their seven-step roadmap. The top brass are divided on the elections, and some high-ranking officers want to negotiate for genuine peace with the opposition, including Aung San Suu Kyi.
But Than Shwe, a former psychological warfare officer used to cracking down on his opponents, doesn't dare risk freeing his archrival Suu Kyi for fear she could defeat him. Suu Kyi, on the contrary, has shown no disinclination to discuss any topic. She has willingly called for talks with the junta since she founded the NLD.
Campbell’s mission should convince Than Shwe to cooperate in finding a solution to the political deadlock in the poverty-stricken country. The military regime must stop finding fault with the Lady, the NLD and the ethnic parties.
The military junta has unilaterally declared plans to hold the country's first election in two decades next year as part of its seven-step roadmap, which is actually designed to entrench the military's hold on power. People around the world are keenly watching whether the United States’ ongoing special diplomatic mission to the military-ruled country can make a significant breakthrough.
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(Zin Linn is a freelance Burmese journalist living in exile in Bangkok, Thailand. He works at the NCGUB East Office as an information director and is vice president of Burma Media Association, which is affiliated with the Paris-based Reporters Sans Frontiers. ©Copyright Zin Linn.)
