Font size: 
U.S. society has been discussing whether or not to send in more troops. Obama has not yet made a decision, saying he wants to observe developments in Afghanistan, particularly with regard to the dispute over the presidential election.
One-third of the ballots in the first election round were declared void, lowering the total for current President Hamid Karzai to less than 50 percent and raising those of his challenger, Dr. Abdullah Abdullah, to nearly 31 percent. The second round of voting will now be held on Nov. 7.
However, whatever the outcome of the second round of voting, Obama is not likely to get what he has been waiting for – a united, powerful Afghan government. The next government, whether under the leadership of Karzai, Abdullah, or a power-sharing arrangement between the two, will remain plagued by corruption, factionalism and low efficiency. Also unchanged will be the government’s expectation of and dependence on support from the West, especially the United States.
On the other hand, U.S. policy will rise or fall based on what happens in Afghanistan. U.S. troops may be able to defeat the Taliban, but cannot eliminate the Taliban fighters. If the Taliban fighters continue to exist and cause casualties among U.S. troops, domestic pressure on Obama will rise to a point no president can withstand. In the end, the United States is very likely to act as it did in Iran or even earlier in Vietnam – winning a number of battles but finally losing the war, with no choice but to withdraw.
The reason the Taliban have grown in strength can be largely attributed to the Afghan people’s disappointment and anger at the Kabul government – they have no security, no reconstruction and no expectations of a better life. This has led some people to once again side with the Taliban.
Although the Taliban’s religious dogma may make some people uneasy, at least they can be expected to provide basic security and stability. As for democracy and freedom, well, when bombs are exploding over the people’s heads and they are going hungry, would they really care about such things?
Only the Kabul government can really remove the Taliban, but there is no sign that it is able to achieve this. Despite all the aid and support the U.S. government offers the Kabul government, it cannot replace it. In fact, such support can have negative effects – the more the United States supports it, the more the Kabul government looks like a puppet regime directed by a foreign force. This is no good for its reputation among the Afghan people.
For the Kabul government to win over the Taliban, relying on its own strength and winning the hearts of it citizens, it must have a strong local foundation, understand the people’s demands and serve as a truly local government. But neither the westernized Karzai nor Abdullah can accomplish this, nor can the original warlords.
What’s more, if U.S. troops are increased, the dependence of the Afghan government on the West will also increase. Consequently, the hope of seeing a powerful local government in Kabul will become more impossible.
Therefore, even as Obama’s efforts in the Afghan war become more focused, his hope of gaining victory grows more distant, unless the Kabul government can somehow magically change.
--
(Li Kaisheng teaches international relations at Xiangtan University in Xiangtan city, Hunan province, China. He holds a doctorate in law. This article is translated and edited from the Chinese by UPI Asia.com; the original may be found at http://blog.sina.com.cn/s/blog_4e20bb500100fwsb.html ©Copyright Li Kaisheng.)
