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Indications are that China’s efforts have achieved some result. North Korea’s Premier Kim Yong-il stated in a meeting with Wen that denuclearization was the will of the late President Kim Il-sung, which the country had never abandoned. North Korea would be willing to accomplish this objective through bilateral and multilateral talks, Kim said.
Meanwhile, the two sides signed a series of economic and trade agreements, which showed that in exchange for the desired diplomatic attitude North Korea would receive many substantial benefits.
As a matter of fact, by repeatedly shifting its attitude toward the nuclear issue, North Korea has gained considerable harvest throughout the years. On one hand, it has received a steady supply of food and energy aid. On the other hand, these benefits have failed to effectively stop the country from developing its nuclear weapons and conducting nuclear tests.
Although international society has seen through this trick – which smacks of blackmail – for a variety of reasons they have had no choice but to keep paying the bill. In the face of North Korea’s continuously improved nuclear technology, the other countries can only feel tired and helpless.
One has to admit that North Korea has employed a clever diplomatic strategy – making use of its own unique geographical location and complicated relations with major world powers in order to seek its own interest. Also, current President Kim Jong-il is indeed a master acrobat, adept at walking a tightrope.
However, such cleverness may prove shortsighted. It could be successful as a tactic, but a failure as a long-term strategy. Although North Korea has diplomatically pursued its own interests in recent years, this could put the country in a difficult strategic predicament in the future, with little room to retrieve the situation.
First, it is not easy for North Korea to win by nuclear blackmail the reconciliation it desires with the United States. For the United States, whether or not it has official ties with North Korea is not really significant; it is more concerned over its strategic position in Northeast Asia. At present, and for the immediate future, the United States wants the nuclear issue on the Korean peninsula suspended so it can strengthen its military and strategic position in Northeast Asia.
Further, its hidden intention is to balance a rising China. As soon as the United States establishes official ties with North Korea, it will have to face the challenge of terminating the Cold War arrangements on the peninsula and withdrawing its troops – which it doesn’t want to do.
Second, North Korea has obviously lost China’s trust. It slapped China in the face twice with its last two nuclear tests. Yet China has continued its aid to North Korea, against its own will.
A spokesman for the Chinese Foreign Ministry has described relations between China and North Korea as “normal,” ignoring the fact that the two have signed a military pact that is still in effect. This shows that China is unwilling to take responsibility for North Korea’s security, which is not a good thing for the isolated country.
The last and most critical issue is that the international tension caused by the nuclear issue has strengthened North Korea’s “military first” policy, which is difficult to change. If continued, this military first system will further worsen the country’s unbalanced economic structure, create more economic problems and hinder its development in the long run.
As a result, it will become more difficult for North Korea to move toward the kind of openness and reforms that China has implemented, causing it to be further isolated and cut off from help. Under tough economic circumstances, the Kim family would further enhance its “military first” policy and worsen its economic problems. This will lead to a vicious cycle and a road of no return.
Perhaps Kim Jong-il will have passed away when that day arrives. But since he wants his descendents to hold on to state power, he had better not go too far in playing the nuclear card. He and his offspring had better focus their energy on improving the country’s domestic and international situation to ensure its sustainable development.
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(Li Kaisheng teaches international relations at Xiangtan University in Xiangtan city, Hunan province, China. He holds a doctorate in law. This article is translated and edited from the Chinese by UPI Asia.com; the original may be found at http://blog.sina.com.cn/s/blog_4e20bb500100fntq.html ©Copyright Li Kaisheng.)
