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It was a simple case of acting as a victim of terrorism and getting more money to fight terror. In this scheme, Pashtun tribesmen were to make sporadic attacks on Pakistani cities. But then things started to go wrong. The Taliban and al-Qaida decided to take Pakistan head on for helping the United States in its war on terror in Afghanistan, and terrorists began blowing up urban areas for real. The last attack on May 27 in Lahore left scores dead and wounded.
Pakistan received about US$10 billion in aid from the United States in the last eight years, most of which was spent on guns and fighter jets. When it appeared to the Pakistani leadership that they had overspent and were in financial difficulty in 2007-08, they sent newly elected President Asif Ali Zardari to China and Saudi Arabia to get an urgent $5 billion in loans – but his mission failed.
Undeterred, they invented a new crisis – the rise of the Pakistani Taliban – and alleged it was trying along with al-Qaida to capture nuclear weapons from Pakistan’s armory.
This unnerved the U.S. administration and generated sympathy for Pakistan in the U.S. Congress. Congress began the process of appropriating more money for Pakistan, thanks to the very friendly sentiments of John Kerry, the Senate Foreign Committee Chairman, and Secretary of State Hillary Clinton. Neither is a friend of Pakistan’s military generals, but both feel that U.S. interests are best served by funding the Pakistani military.
On the other hand, the emboldened Pakistani chapter of the Taliban began its campaign of terror, demanding full control of the tribal areas and enforcement of ancient Islamic law there. To make their point they decided to move close to the Pakistani capital, in Bunner district, about 60 miles from Islamabad.
This made the United States even more nervous. The Pakistanis knew it was a ruse, because it was they who had set the cat among the pigeons. Even the Pakistanis at this stage were unaware of the true intentions of the Taliban and al-Qaida, however.
The United States, misunderstanding the whole situation, decided to save Pakistan by pouring cash into it. Meanwhile al-Qaida and the Taliban felt they were gaining the upper hand and decided to go for psychological warfare. They came closer and closer to the capital.
In this whole situational comedy, Pakistan succeeded in getting US$2 billion a year more cash while the Taliban and al-Qaida gained prominence. Now Pakistan’s nuclear weapons arsenal can be expanded much more rapidly.
To the Pakistanis this money appeared too little; hence they decided to add to U.S. concerns by creating a humanitarian crisis. Creating these crises is a Pakistani specialty. They created 3.5 million refugees from Afghanistan from 1982 to 1989. As reported in the media, there are 3 million refugees this time. This seems too large a number to result from minor firefights in the mountains.
A ragtag bunch of tribesmen less than 4,000 in number is not a big deal for the heavily equipped 600,000-man Pakistani army. If the army decided to, it could squash the militants in one month. All it would have to do is move part of its huge army from the Indian border. But it doesn’t want to do that. If the Taliban and al-Qaida are eliminated then cash gratuities will disappear.
Today’s crisis is designed to keep the Americans guessing, again wrongly. The Pakistanis invented the Islamic court crisis in the Swat Valley a year ago, in 2008. This valley had Islamic courts as a medium of justice until 1969. That was one of the important reasons why the North West Frontier Province – the tribal belt – joined Pakistan in 1947 after the British left.
The tribal people wished to be left alone to govern themselves, which they did until 1969. Hence, imposing the same laws after 40 years of absence is not a big deal. But if it were done quietly Pakistan would not get U.S. cash. Therefore this crisis has to be kept simmering.
The other issue that has gone wrong is the U.S. drone attacks. Although the United States are attacking the Afghani chapter of the Taliban with missiles, people in the area are getting fed up. They tried persuading the Pakistani government to help stop these attacks, but Pakistan – in need of U.S. money – was not listening. Hence both the Taliban and al-Qaida decided to go after the Pakistani intelligence agencies, which were helping the United States mount these drone attacks. The terrorists decided to retaliate in the cities.
Who are the masterminds of the tribal insurgency? The triggers for this insurgency were the destruction of a mosque in Islamabad in 2007, and the murder of former Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto in December the same year. An Islamist leader of the frontier region, Baitullah Mehsud, was directly implicated in the Bhutto murder. He is well known to the Pakistani intelligence services. He is their reliable asset.
Maulana Fazalullah, leader of Tehrik-e-Nifaz-e-Shariah-Mohammadi, is the Swat insurgency leader. He has been providing support for the Afghani chapter of the Taliban for years. The Pakistani army uses him frequently; hence it is hard to tell who is a real patriot and who is stirring up trouble at the behest of the army.
Sufi Muhammad is another key leader and the brains behind the Swat Islamic court deal. He is also the father-in-law of Maulana Fazalullah. He is the key negotiator with the Pakistani government and the media face of the tribal insurgency.
All of them are well-known Pakistani intelligence services assets.
For the present, the Afghan war has slid into the background. There are fewer and fewer attacks on NATO forces in Afghanistan in the last three months. The most vaunted spring attack of the Afghani Taliban this year failed to materialize.
All attention is now focused on Pakistan’s tribal region. U.S. drone attacks have unnerved the al-Qaida leaders. At the same time, intertribal scores are being settled by providing misleading intelligence. Also the tribal militia is not as brave as projected. When encircled they hide behind civilians. Drone missiles do not distinguish between civilians and terrorists; hence more civilians are dead than terrorists.
At the moment the Pashtun people are fully roused and displaced. They will not go back to their homes easily, nor will they settle for anything less than complete control of their future. They will continue their guerilla fight as they did 150 years back with the British. Finally, at that time, the British retreated and created the tribal infrastructure to let them govern themselves. A similar deal will be the outcome of the current troubles.
The winner is always Pakistan. Now they have the U.S. cash. In return they will give up control of the tribal areas. The Pashtuns on the Afghani side will combine with the Pashtuns on the Pakistani side and carve out a nation. Pakistan will have to live with the new bunch or face perpetual terror.
Afghanistan may divide itself in the same way Yugoslavia split 10 years ago. The United States will have no choice but to accept the outcome.
Hence, all that money the United States has poured into Pakistan will be worthless in the end. If the current Pakistani drive in Swat succeeds, the victory will be only temporary. The tribal people will be back and begin trouble all over again.
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(Hari Sud is a retired vice president of C-I-L Inc., a former investment strategies analyst and international relations manager. A graduate of Punjab University and the University of Missouri, he has lived in Canada for the past 34 years. ©Copyright Hari Sud.)
