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D-Day came and went for Thailand’s Red Shirts, who had determined to drive out top government and Privy Council leaders through protests on Wednesday. The day passed, and other than fractious political factions becoming more divided, things remained relatively unchanged.
But protests continued against alleged interference in the country’s political affairs by certain Privy Council members, including the council’s president. On Wednesday, in the northeast city of Nakhonratchasima, next to the revered Thao Suranaree shrine, Red Shirt protestors burned a coffin in effigy. Written in Thai on the coffin were the words, “His Majesty…General Prem…People’s Alliance for Democracy…Government of Thieves…Born…Died April 8, 2009.”
There are two schools of thought as to what “His Majesty” was intended to mean. First that it referred to the king, and second that it was a mockery of His Majesty’s chief Privy Councilor General Prem Tinsulalonda, who is being portrayed by the Red Shirts as someone acting in a style only the king is entitled to.
Whichever meaning was intended, the burning was clearly disrespectful to the monarchy. Demands for Prem to resign obviously run against the perceived wishes of the king. The burning was also witnessed by local senior police officers who did nothing to stop the demonstration.
Police were also recently in failure mode when it came to the arrest of a Red Shirt who smashed in the back window of Thai Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva’s vehicle while he was inside it in the resort city of Pattaya. Although initially arrested, according to reports, the culprit then asked the police in the station to let him go outside for a smoke. They did so, and the rest is history.
The prime minister on Thursday was reportedly under stress and not in a mood to give interviews to the media. Abhisit is also under fire from several quarters because of his lack of action both in government affairs and against the anti-government demonstrators. Listening to him recently on television, it seemed as if he was still in university assessing hypothetical moves in an online chess game. His seeming lack of resolve and demonstrated lack of initiative in settling current political strife is seriously undermining his administration and the country’s reputation.
With a weak government – the Democrats have traditionally been perceived as too polite and weak – combined with an adamant anti-government faction that is assailing those close to the king, Thailand’s current stability, as indicated previously, is best discussed in hypothetical terms.
What could have been done to date to help restore stability and confidence? First, strong resolve is needed, and with it actions like the use of water cannons to disperse demonstrators and selected arrests done quietly but efficiently. As well, many have suggested that the government should interrupt the Red Shirt DTV signal that is now regularly airing speeches to the nation by former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra, and goading his supporters to undermine the government any way they can.
The ousted billionaire premier is going for broke in his efforts to garner overwhelming national grassroots support for his return as head of government. During a Thursday broadcast on DTV, he used a metaphor to describe the country’s current prime minister as a fruit on a poisoned tree. He added that the fruit would also be poison and not good for consumers. Heavy applause followed, interrupted by Thaksin calling for Abhisit to resign and claiming that he wants to see genuine democracy restored in the nation.
It’s too bad that Thaksin’s memory is so short. During his nearly seven-year run in the saddle he did everything a budding dictator could do to undermine the media, threaten trade relations with those that displeased him, tarnish the country’s human rights record and make himself the world’s 14th richest person.
Many also suspect that Thaksin was personally behind the now five-year-old unsolved disappearance and murder of Muslim defense lawyer Somchai Neelapaijit. Actually, the disappearance was sort of resolved in court, with four out of five accused police officers implicated, but only one was actually sentenced. The sentence was hardly severe; the convicted officer was out on appeal the same day. Somchai’s widow rightfully wonders why.
As for the immediate future, Thaksin is obviously now confident that he has the upper hand in destabilizing the Thai government until the ruling elite sign some sort of safe passage order and allow him back into the country, despite the warrants out for his arrest.
Killers, kidnappers, rapists and robbers in Thailand have traditionally had an easy time getting off the hook if they are well-connected. So it is no great challenge for Thaksin to be invited back for reconciliation with his opponents. The trouble is that Thaksin would request pardons for his 111 former Thai Rak Thai political leaders, his own pardon and restoration to power. This could mean the subsequent return to Thaksin’s earlier reportedly rapid pace of corruption.
Given the combination of economic weakness, burdensome debt, political see-sawing and unprecedented calling into question the role of the monarch’s advisers and their alleged interference in politics, making a bet that Thaksin won’t be back on his own terms is taking a high risk. If and when he does return – and he is certainly aware of this – there could be an effort to assassinate him on the one hand, or bargaining over the terms that will lead to his eventual return to the driver’s seat. Bet on the latter.
A wild card exists, however. It is Thaksin’s former supporter in Buriram province, Newin Chidchob, whose father is Parliament speaker. Newin was recently seen on television crying that Thaksin had wrongly treated him. Apart from the tears, Newin is seen as a stronger personality than Abhisit and possibly a better candidate for prime minister.
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(Frank G. Anderson is the Thailand representative of American Citizens Abroad. He was a U.S. Peace Corps volunteer to Thailand from 1965-67, working in community development. A freelance writer and founder of northeast Thailand's first local English language newspaper, the Korat Post – www.thekoratpost.com – he has spent over eight years in Thailand "embedded" with the local media. He has an MBA in information management and an associate degree in construction technology. ©Copyright Frank G. Anderson.)
