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Sino-French relations grew chilly this month due to French President Nicolas Sarkozy’s insistence on meeting with the Dalai Lama in Poland on Dec. 6. As is well-known, China regards the Dalai Lama as a separatist, therefore such a meeting is considered interference in issues of Chinese sovereignty and territorial integrity, which China regards as its core interests.

Ahead of the planned meeting, China reacted by canceling the 11th China-European Union summit due to be held Dec. 1, as Sarkozy is the current EU president. Analysts expect China to take further action over what they see as France’s uncooperative behavior.

China’s strongest move would be to cancel the contracts signed during Sarkozy’s last visit to China in November, 2007. The two countries signed over US$20 billion in deals related to nuclear energy, aviation and environmental protection.

Deputy Foreign Minister He Yafei summoned France’s ambassador to China, Herve Ladsous, to an emergency meeting in Beijing to express China’s grave concerns over the issue. On his part, Ladsous expressed irritation over widespread personal attacks against Sarkozy by Chinese Internet users.

Chinese netizens have dubbed Sarkozy “Napolean the Second” and questioned his political integrity for what they see as a political turnaround, throwing cold water on relations that had been closer after last year’s deals and Sarkozy’s visit to Beijing for the opening of the Olympic Games in August.

Some Chinese citizens have once again been calling for a boycott of French goods, which could impact brand-name goods as well as the French supermarket chain Carrefour. A similar wave of anti-French sentiment swept China ahead of the Olympic Games as a Chinese disabled athlete was attacked by protesters during the Olympic torch relay in Paris. Sarkozy later apologized over the incident.

Sarkozy also angered Chinese citizens by threatening to boycott the Olympic Games last spring, over human rights issues. It was only due to efforts by both governments that tempers were soothed and Sino-French relations placed back on track.

Analysts fear that the French president’s latest move may have pushed relations to their lowest level since 1991, when France sold US$2 billion worth of warships to Taiwan. In response, China cancelled several joint venture projects, including contracts worth billions of U.S. dollars. China later also asked France to close its office in the southern city of Guangzhou.

Will Sino-French relations suffer further this time? What further measures will the Chinese government take to express its dissatisfaction? And how will the government manage the wave of nationalism again sweeping the country, to serve its diplomatic interests?

Based on the long history of their love-hate relationship, it can be predicted that China and France will experience a brief “cold war.” Yet their relationship will not break.

If China overreacts, it may cause a reverse international reaction, not only strengthening the Dalai Lama’s position and influence, but also possibly destabilizing China.

France is likely to take some kind of action to mollify China. In his meeting with China’s deputy foreign minister, Ladsous, the French ambassador, pointed out that Sarkozy met the Dalai Lama as a spiritual leader, not as an advocate of Tibetan independence – even though China did not find this explanation acceptable.

Ladsous also stressed that the two countries have many issues to tackle, including trade, cooperation in building a nuclear power plant, automotive factories, energy and environmental protection, as well as human rights.

Strategically, China has always counted on its relations with Europe as a counter-balance to U.S. unilateralism. This was particularly true during the Cold War.

From the French presidency of Charles de Gaulle in the 1960s until that of Jacques Chirac, which ended last year, China and France experienced a long honeymoon of strategic cooperation. France was the first Western country to forge diplomatic relations at an ambassadorial level with China, in 1964. In October, 2006, when Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao met with Chirac in Beijing, he described Sino-French relations as “a tree full of life.”

A strategic relationship not only refers to economic cooperation for material gain, but also a shared vision that goes beyond short-sighted interests. The two countries can find common ground on issues related to the global financial crisis, food and energy security and climate change. They have a solid foundation and enough shared interests to ensure that their relationship will go forward, despite differences.

Politicians as well as scholars are increasingly recognizing that all human beings are living in an interdependent world. It is in everyone’s interest for countries to cooperate more rather than confront each other. This requires a willingness to recognize and respect each other’s areas of sensitivity and avoid unnecessary friction while focusing on shared interests and cooperating to resolve global problems.

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(Dr. Zhang Quanyi is associate professor at Zhejiang Wanli University in Ningbo, China, and a guest researcher at the Center for the Study of Non-traditional Security and Peaceful Development at Zhejiang University in Hangzhou. His research interest revolves around the creation of a world state. He can be contacted at qyzhangupi@gmail.com. ©Copyright Zhang Quanyi)