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For the past 10 years the United States has supported Pakistan as an ally in its war on terror, which has resulted in carte blanche for Pakistan to do whatever it wants in India. Therefore the United States will determine whether India and Pakistan go to war over the Mumbai attacks.

Today the United States could put pressure on Pakistan, economically and militarily, to hand over the perpetrators of the Mumbai attack to India. Any delay will allow the perpetrators to join Osama bin Laden and his group in Pakistan’s lawless Federally Administered Tribal Areas, where they may never be traced. The United States could hold up International Monetary Fund aid to Pakistan, or hold up all military deliveries until the perpetrators are captured and punished.

The probability of war between India and Pakistan after the Mumbai attacks has increased. These attacks were the deadliest yet on Indians and foreigners in the current year. Most previous attacks on civilians have looked more like internal matters than external threats, and any Pakistan connection was swept under the rug due to pressure from the United States and Britain.

However, British, Israeli and U.S. citizens were targeted in the latest attacks. Also, the possibility that some of the terrorists could be British citizens will make it hard to dismiss the Pakistan connection, if established.

Although the United States has advised caution in the blame game and discouraged retaliatory moves, with U.S. citizens gunned down by terrorists, the word “caution” will not cut the ice back home. Also, if India does not act now, it will be considered an impotent leviathan of Asia. Therefore, the perpetrators should be found soon and tried for their crimes.

The problem is that the perpetrators could be from Pakistan’s Inter-Services Intelligence, or groups it supports, although it is common for them to deny any role. Pakistani politicians may not be fully aware of this and so are less to be blamed.

According to British and U.S. reports, Pakistan’s secret service is hand in glove with all private terror groups in Pakistan. It was the ISI that executed the terror attack on the Indian Embassy in Kabul, Afghanistan this year, according to the U.S. Central Intelligence Agency. Pakistan’s political leaders repeatedly denied this, but they are never in the loop on ISI activities.

India must retaliate sooner rather than later. First the full identity of the terror group that carried out the attacks should be established. Then their organization and leaders should be identified, followed by their military and political masters. India should involve U.S. and British agencies to investigate, and any connections to Pakistan should be revealed.

Pakistan’s civilian government will deny responsibility on one hand, and on the other, flash their nuclear prowess to scare India and the West into inaction. This tactic worked in 2001 when a similar attack was carried out by Pakistani terrorists on the Indian Parliament. Atal Bihari Vajpayee, India’s prime minister, ordered troops to get the perpetrators from Pakistan. Only after the West intervened did Vajpayee cancel the punishing raid into Pakistan, although that confrontation resulted in numerous deaths and untold destruction in India by extremist outfits over the past 10 years.

Now India faces a choice again – to either let Pakistan off the hook or go after it in a punishing way. Critical to this endeavor will be the U.S. position. It could play peacemaker and ask Pakistan to capture the perpetrators and hand them over to India before it is too late. Failing that could result in India mounting a punishing raid on Pakistan’s intelligence infrastructure.

This could cause a dilemma for the United States. Pakistan’s withdrawal of troops from its FATA region to fight India would be a gain for the Taliban and al-Qaida, while U.S. economic and military pressure could result in Pakistan’s refusal to cooperate, which in turn could encourage the Taliban to attack U.S. interests in Afghanistan.

This fight, however, cannot be made hostage to U.S. interests. The attacks in Mumbai are comparable in scope, size and planning to the 9/11 attacks in the United States. The United States retaliated by mounting attacks on al-Qaida and the Taliban in Afghanistan; India too has the same right.

Pakistan has no capability to resist India’s military pressure. A single naval raid on the port city of Karachi could cripple Pakistan for six months, while resistance by the navy would result in terrible loss of life. Air attacks by Pakistan’s Air Force would be mincemeat for India’s Sukhoi fighter jets. Besides, India’s forces on the ground are capable of advancing on several fronts. Pakistan would end up fighting a defensive war and would even risk losing control of Pakistani-occupied Kashmir.

So where does wisdom lie? Pakistan’s political leadership should dismantle the ISI and wash its hands of all terror groups. All terror-related organizations formed by the ISI should be disbanded and their leaders handed over to India, Britain, the United States and Israel.

It is in India’s interest to act forcefully now, and it is time for the United States to tackle Pakistan. Pakistan’s ISI will never hand Osama bin Laden over to the United States, as the two are allies. It is time to tame Pakistan in order to tame terror in the world.

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(Hari Sud is a retired vice president of C-I-L Inc., a former investment strategies analyst and international relations manager. A graduate of Punjab University and the University of Missouri, he has lived in Canada for the past 34 years. ©Copyright Hari Sud.)