Font size: 
Unlike previous U.S. presidential election campaigns, China was not much of an issue in the lead-up to the Nov. 4 election. The experts attributed this largely to the fact that Sino-U.S. bilateral relations have been quite stable. Accordingly neither Obama nor his rival, John McCain, took a strong position on China, or used his opponent’s position on China as a point of attack. This was a shift from previous election campaigns, especially that of 1992 when former President Bill Clinton won against incumbent President George H.W. Bush.
China-related issues did arise in the 2008 campaign, including security, human rights and trade, but they were not key issues affecting the voters’ choice of candidate. This might be attributed to the fact that there were many more pressing issues, especially energy and the financial crisis, as well as the historical factor in Obama’s campaign as the first black American presidential candidate. Yet it is also because the relationship between China and the United States has matured into one of interdependence and cooperation rather than confrontation.
The two countries’ relations are now based on a stable framework, the experts said. Although U.S. presidents Clinton and Bush used different terms to describe the Sino-U.S. relationship, both acknowledged that a partnership was necessary for the benefit of both. The two have accepted each other as “stakeholders” in a global system.
Also, after many years of contact, the two countries have become aware of each other’s key concerns and learned to walk softly with regard to certain issues. For China, the issues of Taiwan, Tibet, and internal matters that China considers potentially destabilizing, must be handled with care. For the United States, its trade deficit with China, China’s pursuit of energy resources around the world and its military cooperation with countries unfavorable to the United States are issues that incite anti-China sentiments, particularly within the U.S. Congress and among certain interest groups.
To get around these sensitive issues, both sides have adopted policies and principles that allow continued positive interaction despite their disagreements. This arrangement is exemplified by their frequent summit meetings – although these are sometimes more symbolic than substantive – and also other contacts, dialogues and debates that take place through many different channels to build confidence between the two sides.
When a high-profile issue comes to the fore, threatening to derail normal relations, both sides tend to downplay the problem and activate their multiple channels of contact, to reduce or resolve the conflict.
As for the current global financial crisis, although it began in the United States it is definitely affecting China, and both countries have committed to working together to contain its impact. To some extent U.S. leadership is still required because of the country’s dominant economic and political position in the world. Still, even the United States has realized that it must get other countries on board to resolve the current problem, and its willingness to treat other players, including China, as stakeholders is an important step forward in global governance.
On the other hand, issues of trade, transparency, human rights, and even the quality of Chinese exports will provide challenges to Obama’s China policy team. It is still too early to tell whether Obama’s mindset or strategy toward China will differ from his predecessor’s. Yet analysts expect that on key issues such as trade and Taiwan he is likely to stay the course followed by both the Clinton and Bush administrations.
Some uncertainties remain, especially whether Obama’s frontline foreign policy officials will adhere strictly to his roadmap or strike out on their own. If Hillary Clinton becomes secretary of state, for example, it is not clear whether she will prove to be an iron lady, or take a more soft approach. In addition, the U.S. Congress, the military industrial complex and other interest groups will all seek to exert influence on Obama’s China policy.
One scholar from a Chinese think tank voiced the opinion that Sino-U.S. relations could improve under the new U.S. administration. He warned that 2009 would be a sensitive year, however, as it is the anniversary of a number of important events, and suggested that the United States should avoid stirring up delicate issues.
Among other things, next year will be the 30th anniversary of the establishment of Sino-U.S. diplomatic relations. The anniversary offers a good opportunity for both sides to focus on the positive and stable factors in the relationship, the Chinese expert suggested. He pointed out that political stability and economic development in China will benefit the United States; therefore it is in the interests of both sides to keep the relationship on a steady, constructive track.
The former U.S. consul general in Shanghai, Kenneth Jarrett, expressed confidence that Sino-U.S. relations will continue to prosper after Obama moves into the White House. “U.S.-China relations rest on a solid foundation and that won’t change under an Obama administration,” he said. “There is a growing consensus in the United States regarding the importance of U.S.-China relations. Thus, we should expect to see policy continuity and further development of the bilateral relationship.”
--
(Dr. Zhang Quanyi is associate professor at Zhejiang Wanli University in Ningbo, China, and a guest researcher at the Center for the Study of Non-traditional Security and Peaceful Development at Zhejiang University in Hangzhou. His research interest revolves around the creation of a world state. He can be contacted at qyzhangupi@gmail.com. ©Copyright Zhang Quanyi)
