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Two Russian bombers have already arrived in Venezuela, and Russian officials have confirmed that Russian naval ships, including the nuclear-powered guided-missile cruiser Peter the Great and the anti-submarine ship Chabanenko, will take part in joint military exercises. Venezuela’s chief of naval intelligence, Salvatore Cammarata Bastidas, said the exercises were aimed at strengthening military ties – a taboo phrase from the U.S. point of view.
According to media reports, four warships with as many as 1,000 sailors from Russia's Pacific Fleet could take part in the November training exercise off Venezuela's coast.
In a sign that it is paying attention to Russia’s military moves with Venezuela, the United States has sent navy ships and bombers along the Latin American coastline to keep an eye on developments there. Washington has indicated it will do everything necessary to protect its national interest in this area.
Russia has denied that the military exercises are intended to confront the United States, but most analysts see them as a response to the U.S. presence in the Black Sea following the Georgia crisis, as well as plans to expand NATO and set up missile defense systems in Poland and the Czech Republic, areas considered Russia’s backyard.
When NATO and U.S. ships appeared in the Black Sea – including a U.S. ship delivering humanitarian aid to Georgia at the Black Sea port of Poti – Russian President Dmitri Medvedev suggested that the United States was encroaching on territory within his country’s sphere of influence.
The growing intimacy between Russia and Venezuela is a thorn in the side of the United States – to some degree resembling the situation with Cuba leading up to the 1962 Cuban missile crisis. That year, noting that U.S. nuclear warheads deployed in Turkey could easily wipe out Kiev, Minsk and Moscow in a matter of minutes, Soviet leader Nikita Khrushchev decided to install missiles in Cuba, which like Venezuela now was antagonistic to the United States.
The Americans, determined to keep Soviet missiles out of Cuba, launched a naval blockade of Soviet ships and prepared for an invasion of Cuba.
A deal was soon reached in which the Soviet missiles and launchers were dismantled and removed from Cuba, in return for U.S. guarantees that it would not invade Cuba and would withdraw its missiles from Turkey. While it seemed a win-win result, the popular belief held that the Cuban crisis was a disgrace to Moscow.
Learning from history, the United States has cause for worry. Will Russia resume its old tactics in creating another crisis? Given current tensions between the United States and Venezuela, Washington has enough reason to be concerned. Hugo Chavez, the Venezuelan president, has called for a strategic relationship with Russia to counter aggression from the United States.
A key U.S. concern is that Russian aggression may generate more opposition to the United States, with other Latin American countries following Venezuela and Cuba, reducing the strength of U.S. democratic allies in the region.
Even if such U.S. fears do not prove true, Russia’s military moves may complicate international relations in terms of political, economic, regional and even cultural interests. Countries including China, Japan, South Korea and even India are unlikely to feel comfortable with Russia’s assertive actions. These countries have long-embedded interests in Latin America.
Particularly in terms of energy supplies, Venezuela is the fifth biggest oil-exporting country in the world, and a member of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, with rich reserves of crude oil. According to government figures, the state oil company Petroleos de Venezuela SA (PDVSA) produces 3.3 million barrels a day. The company, South America’s biggest, has opened many representative offices in Asia.
In May, China National Petroleum Corp. (CNPC), China's largest oil producer, and Venezuela's PDVSA agreed to establish a joint venture to develop and refine heavy oil in Venezuela, with an annual production capacity of 20 million tons. PDVSA will hold a 60-percent stake in the company and CNPC will hold 40 percent.
Japan has extensive trade dealings with the continent, exporting machinery and automobiles and importing resources including aluminum, steel and cacao.
Of course, Spain and Portugal have deep historical relations with Latin American countries, sharing language and cultural as well as trade ties. Other European countries like Germany, France and the United Kingdom have industrial investments in the continent.
Russia’s assertive military policies will definitely cause anxiety among countries that have strong ties with Latin America. Increased military influence from Russia in this area will not be welcome.
Time has moved on since the Cold War; in this era of globalization countries are more interdependent than in the past. The big and powerful countries should be aware of the worldwide impact of their actions. Military confrontation may not be the best way to promote their national interest. From this viewpoint, Russia should be cautious in taking military initiatives.
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(Dr. Zhang Quanyi is associate professor at Zhejiang Wanli University in Ningbo, China, and a guest researcher at the Center for the Study of Non-traditional Security and Peaceful Development at Zhejiang University in Hangzhou. His research interest revolves around the creation of a world state. He can be contacted at qyzhangupi@gmail.com. ©Copyright Zhang Quanyi)
