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Even the rest of the world seems to appreciate his candidacy and possible elevation to the U.S. White House. Obama – with his mixed-race roots, rhetoric of “change” and broad, youthful smile – captivated the Democratic Party. Hillary had everything going for her until last January, when her clever opponent’s campaign began to question her record, and her husband’s, while portraying Obama as a fresh wind of change.
This is all nice and good for Obama. But if you look a bit deeper, here is a young American barely learning how to survive in the U.S. congressional jungle, with no more experience in administration, domestic politicking, international affairs or the economy than any other young 45-year-old law graduate. His broad smile, his sometimes witty remarks and his insistence that he will change U.S. politics are captivating, but are they enough to lead a nation as large as United States with such a complex economy?
John McCain is the experienced old man of U.S. politics. He has been around Washington for 20 years or more. In earlier attempts, he dropped out of the presidential race when he did not find enough support for his candidacy. This year, most of the capable candidates either did not throw their hats in the ring or withdrew early, leaving the field open.
The Iraq War and failing economy are the biggest hurdles for any Republican Party candidate. McCain will find it hard to portray himself as a reformer, because he is part of the problem.
McCain touts himself as a war hero and sites his family’s long connections to U.S. wars abroad. His war record is not worth mentioning. He was neither an ace pilot nor a top war strategist, but simply a fighter pilot who got himself shot down over North Vietnam and became a prisoner of war. Hundreds of other U.S. pilots met a similar fate. There is nothing to be proud of in this record. But Americans still want to believe that they won the Vietnam War and McCain is their hero of that war.
By associating himself with the present Republican administration, McCain has already painted himself into a corner, however. He supports the Iraq War, supports rich people’s tax breaks and would continue to irritate Russia by expanding further into Eastern Europe. He has no idea how to deal with the Pakistani Army, which has been protecting the 9/11 terrorists, or Iranians, who are developing a nuclear bomb. He simply tows the official Bush administration line. Economically his opinions are below par. He is somewhat evasive on how to deal with rising oil prices or cheap Chinese imports or the sinking U.S. dollar.
At least we can credit Obama for making the right noises – that the United States should leave Iraq, repeal the wealthy people’s tax breaks, talk to Iran face to face and not proceed with a missile defense system in Eastern Europe. Whether these are his own views or his advisors are leading him down the garden path, we don’t know.
If he abandons the fire in the American attitude toward erring nations, however, the United States will become a laughing stock. It happened during President Jimmy Carter’s administration. His not-so firm attitude invited the Soviets into Afghanistan and Iranians captured and kept American diplomats as hostages. People heaved a sigh of relief when Ronald Reagan defeated him.
Obama has a major public relations job to undertake to wipe out his “Muslim madrassa” image. Most young voters, who in fact are his main supporters, do not care much about his heritage. Hillary Clinton did not press this issue much during the primaries; only the media brought it up often. But when the contest shifts to Republican versus Democrat, the Republicans will exploit this issue to the hilt.
Already there are signs and newer opinion polls suggesting that 27 percent of Hillary’s supporters will not vote for Obama. These supporters include women who wanted to see Hillary in the White House and white Anglo-Saxon males who believe in the supremacy of the white race. They will not vote for a half black, half white man. This is a big problem for Obama. Hence, behind the scenes, efforts are underway to get Hillary to become Obama’s running mate to prevent Hillary’s voter bank from moving to McCain.
It was distinctly noticeable during the Hillary-versus-Obama primaries that media began to introduce black reporters, political strategists and analysts to the public. This is the first time ever in the presidential context that so many black media personalities appeared on TV on a daily basis. Mostly they were expressing support for Obama, but also offering opinions about how black America will vote. Diehard Anglo-Saxon whites have not reacted positively to the sudden elevation of so many black personalities.
The upcoming presidential campaign is likely to be very rough. Republicans know they are being set up to lose, and hope to limit their losses to the presidential race only and not extend it to a major shift in the congressional power balance. Hence, they will play the race card to the hilt. The early years of Obama’s life will become the centerpiece of the rhetoric. Some will say he is a secret Muslim and others will say he is Christian. His middle name being “Hussein” will not help.
The issues in this election are now limited to the failing economy and the war in Iraq. As the Republicans have failed on both fronts, the advantage belongs to the Democrats. The Republicans have two points to counter the Democrats: Obama’s lack of experience and his early background. Young voters will vote Obama and give him the benefit of the doubt on both these issues. They will not pardon the Republicans for getting the United States involved in Iraq at a US$1 trillion expense. Still worse, they hate the Republicans for creating the current mortgage and housing mess.
Other lesser issues may make or break a few congressional or senatorial seats, but will not impact the presidential race. Hillary Clinton had made healthcare the centerpiece of her run for the nomination. Immigration, gun control, gay rights and other issues can neither be solved nor dealt with one way or the other. These issues will be around for a long time after this presidential contest is over.
Let us hope that the best candidate makes it to the White House, and that he finds the best and brightest people to advise him. We do not have to guess too much about McCain’s administration. Most of those holding jobs now, or associated with previous Republican administrations, will be recycled back.
Let us hope that George Bush and Dick Cheney in their last few months do not leave behind another problem for the new administration. They are inching toward an attack on Iran, but crippling Iran would prove deadly to world peace. If the Iranians replied in kind they would make a U.S. presence in the Persian Gulf almost impossible, and hurt already bloated oil prices.
The present U.S. presidential election is hardly a contest of equals. Obama, unless he makes a big error, will win hands down. Republicans have little hope in McCain. They are merely hoping to prevent an outright Democratic win in the U.S. Congress. A big Democratic majority in both houses would be detrimental to everybody’s interests.
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(Hari Sud is a retired vice president of C-I-L Inc., a former investment strategies analyst and international relations manager. A graduate of Punjab University and the University of Missouri, he has lived in Canada for the past 34 years. ©Copyright Hari Sud.)
