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One day earlier Pyongyang had submitted the long-awaited declaration of its nuclear materials and plants to the Chinese government – as promised during the last meeting of the six-party group last September. Almost simultaneously, U.S. President George W. Bush announced that Washington would remove North Korea from the U.S. list of state sponsors of terrorism within 45 days, and issued a proclamation lifting some sanctions under the Trading with the Enemy Act.
On Sunday, a ship full of food aid from the United States arrived in a North Korean port.
Evidently U.S.-North Korean relations are suddenly warming up. The recent spate of developments has roused speculation that this bilateral diplomacy may become the most important development on the Korean peninsula, leaving the other countries involved in the region – China, Japan, Russia and even South Korea – to play only minor roles.
Will this closer relationship between Washington and Pyongyang last? Will the U.S. engagement policy prevail in the future? It is too optimistic to expect a positive outcome from the demolition of one tower and the removal of a country’s name from one list.
A number of geopolitical interests are still very much in play in northeast Asia. Whether it chooses to admit it or not in its current game plan, North Korea is still a close ally of China, as it has been since an agreement was signed between the two neighbors in 1961. China has a commitment and responsibility to protect North Korea, which it will not abandon, particularly if it feels its interests are threatened in any way.
In recent years North Korea has been largely dependent on China for food, oil and other goods. It is also ideologically tied to China. Even it wants to adopt a market system, it will most likely have to follow China’s road to prosperity, particularly in managing the political upheavals that could accompany systemic changes.
North Korea is also strategically important to Russia. After World War II it was the Soviet Union that took control of the Japanese surrender north of the 38th parallel, while the United States took control in the South. This line remains as the border between the communist North and the democratic South, signifying that the Cold War has still not ended in Asia.
Japan also has an interest in North Korea. The U.S. action to remove North Korea from its list of terrorism-sponsoring nations disregarded Japan’s wishes. Tokyo is not pleased that the United States unilaterally made this decision, as it wanted the United States to hold off on the delisting until North Korea took action on locating Japanese citizens abducted to the North in the 1970s and 1980s.
As for South Korea, as the North warms up toward the United States, it is turning a cold shoulder to its southern neighbor. One reason is the change from the Pyongyang-friendly government of former President Roh Moo-hyun to the more conservative leadership of President Lee Myung-bak.
Lee has refused to give food or other aid to the North without certain reciprocal concessions from Pyongyang, such as admitting to the kidnapping of South Korean citizens and agreeing to visits between separated family members. In response, North Korea has hinted it might disrupt the joint commercial projects started under the previous South Korean regime, which have symbolized North-South cooperation.
North Korean media has taken to calling Lee a traitor and accusing him of breaking the agreement made at a North-South summit last year. The official newspaper Rodong Sinmun said in a commentary, "The Lee regime will be held fully accountable for the irrevocable catastrophic consequences to be entailed by the freezing of inter-Korean relations and the disturbance of peace and stability on the Korean Peninsula due to its sycophancy towards the U.S. and its moves for confrontation with the north."
Last but not least, the U.S. leadership has its own interests to be served by its engagement with North Korea. The sudden switch in the Bush administration’s antagonistic policy toward North Korea has given the impression that he wants a diplomatic achievement to boost the popularity of his Republican Party in the upcoming U.S. presidential elections.
In fact, the previous U.S. administration under Democrat Bill Clinton had been carrying out a policy of engagement with North Korea, but it was disrupted by Bush when he became president. There is therefore no guarantee that the next president will continue this engagement policy, since North Korea is still a communist country and largely mistrusted by the American people.
On the other hand, it is still too early to tell if North Korea has actually determined to abandon the development of its nuclear weapons. Pyongyang’s moves may be merely a tactic to boost its miserable economic situation. If its economy recovers through engagement with the United States and other nations, will North Korea continue its non-nuclear policy?
If its relations with South Korea deteriorate further, for example, the North might possibly decide to resume its programs. North Korea has learned from experience that nuclear weapons – or the threat of developing nuclear weapons – are its best bargaining chip.
Destroying its nuclear cooling tower was a simple task for North Korea. Building another tower is also a rather easy task. And, as South Korean experts have pointed out, the demolition, although dramatic, did not answer key questions such as how many weapons North Korea has built or whether it has exported its nuclear technology to countries like Syria.
“It’s symbolic. But in real terms, demolishing a cooling tower that has already been disabled doesn’t make much difference,” said Lee Ji-sue, a North Korea expert at Seoul’s Myongji University.
The North Korean nuclear issue is not a problem that can be resolved only through negotiations between Washington and Pyongyang. Without taking into account the other players in the region, stability on the peninsula will remain fragile.
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(Dr. Zhang Quanyi is associate professor of political science at Zhejiang Wanli University. He has a doctorate degree in law from Shanghai International Studies University, and a master's degree from the School of Political Science and International Studies at the University of Birmingham in Britain. Dr. Zhang has published numerous articles on international relations and political psychology. His research interest revolves around generation of a world state. He can be contacted at qyzhangupi@gmail.com. ©Copyright Zhang Quanyi)
