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Unless the power crisis is overcome, the overall national economic growth will end with a whimper, making India’s failure China’s gain, and causing China to become an even greater darling of the world. The Chinese do not mind polluting the world by using coal to generate electricity as the issue of greenhouse gasses has not yet sunk into their thinking process.
This has resulted in the U.S. offer to India to forgo stringent nuclear export regulations as well as to help India with international regulations, which prevent complications in nuclear exports. While these regulations did not deter Pakistan, North Korea, Libya, Iran and a few others in undertaking nuclear black market trade, it did prevent them from building large, commercially viable nuclear reactors to generate electricity. India, by contrast, does not have any history of black market trade in nuclear materials.
Against this background, the United States agreed that India should use less coal and more atomic power to generate electricity. To India, it was a gift which could not be refused. It is considered the beginning of the end of nuclear apartheid. Hence the Indo-U.S. nuclear deal was negotiated.
For all who live under the constant threat of load shedding – planned power outages – in India, it is a blessing. Many politicians, from both sides of the government, did not favor the deal: the Communists and their fellow travelers who support the government have vetoed the deal with their tough anti-American stance. The opposition Bharatiya Janata Party does not like the deal for its own reasons.
A political error was made by the ruling Congress Party in putting the deal on the parliamentary table for a vote. As per the Indian Constitution, the Cabinet, which is an elected body, has full power to approve and pass the deal. Since it is in Parliament now, it must follow the parliamentary approval process.
Most parliamentarians are also sick of the power shortages and will vote for the deal if given the opportunity. But the party leadership of a number of parties is dead set against the deal on ideological grounds, and hence will be forced to vote on party lines. There is no secret vote in the Indian parliamentary system except during emergency situations, which often results in the failure of well-negotiated deals.
The ruling party is in a fix. They have tried their level best to rally communist support, but they may be forced to adopt an indirect scheme.
One such scheme has been in the ruling party’s mind for quite some time. They know they cannot alienate the middle class but they also know that dumping a well-negotiated deal will disappoint the United States. Hence the upcoming election in India is a trump card, which the ruling party is willing to adopt.
Indian elections are due in May 2009, although the government can order elections anytime in the last year of its mandate. It is common practice for elections to be avoided during the rainy season of July-September.
U.S. elections are due in November this year. Hence there is a possibility that the two events, together and independently, could be made to work to get the deal through the system. India needs the deal and the outgoing U.S. administration needs this as a feather in its cap – hence the interests of both nations could be served if both operate in tandem to finalize the deal.
A curious visit to Washington by India’s heavyweight foreign minister was the key. He went in March to discuss India’s parliamentary predicament, but also to appraise the U.S. administration as to how the ruling Congress Party in India plans to hoodwink the parliamentary opposition. All the foreign minister wanted was additional time to make the scheme work. He told the United States to prepare for a last-minute rush to get the deal through the U.S. Congress before the November elections.
It would appear that the scheme is simple. All political parties in India are fully aware of the ruling party’s schemes. They are also aware that if they oppose the deal too strongly they are likely to alienate more than 300 million voters, which is unadvisable. But those who have opposed the deal for a year will look like fools if they suddenly turn around and support it. So they are in a fix. That is where the whole approval process is being formulated.
The ruling party’s scheme is to complete all formalities at the International Atomic Energy Commission and the Nuclear Suppliers Group in the July-September time frame. That will force the existing government into a minority status and new elections will be ordered for the November-January time frame.
The new Parliament would be in place in January 2009, and by then the deal would have passed all hurdles to become a law in the United States, the IAEC, the NSG and India. That will end all opposition in India. The new government in January 2009 would not dare alter anything in the completed deal. If the present government is re-elected, it can then attribute its victory to the middle-class votes.
The ruling Congress Party, however, is making no great sacrifice by moving the elections three months ahead. They know that a re-election is unlikely as inflation and losses in many provincial elections have made them unpopular. Thus, before departing they are likely to offer the Indo-U.S. nuclear deal as a gift to the nation. Their only hope is that the voters will return the favor through the elections.
In this debacle, the role of the BJP has been very curious and noteworthy. They are supportive of a friendship with the United States, and in fact initiated the rapprochement with the United States after India conducted nuclear tests in 1998. Yet while their technical experts and security advisors support the deal, many have been baffled by the overall party’s opposition to it.
The fact is that the 1998 nuclear tests were not as successful as India originally declared: a few of the tests were not even fully completed. Western observers have been saying that for the last decade. A revised design and concept of the weapons must be tested again.
Whereas the ruling party thinks that the failure was minor, the BJP considers this an important reason worthy of opposition. Still, much of the weapon design concept proved functional and scientists also believe that the failure of one or two tests out of five is not detrimental to India’s nuclear defense. Hence for retesting, India should wait until one or the other powers also begin testing.
If India retests, Pakistan will retest and so will China. Right now Pakistan and India are watching each other, not willing to take the initiative. China, however, is different. It has already tested 46 bombs, and as a consequence has perfected and miniaturized its bomb, which can be carried on a missile.
Pakistan borrowed the Chinese design and thus has bombs superior to India’s bombs. It is the Indian design which must be perfected. But is that worth the economic risk India may face if it unilaterally tests its weapons?
The BJP thinks India should retest, and as a result is vehemently opposing the deal.
In summary, the long wait on the Indo-U.S. nuclear deal may be over, and the next six months are crucial. The ruling Congress Party has a good scheme to overcome parliamentary opposition. It is quite possible that voters may look at their record more favorably.
The one sure thing is that the communists are in for a big surprise. As they put ideology ahead of the people’s welfare they will surely learn the people’s displeasure in a hard way in the coming elections.
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(Hari Sud is a retired vice president of C-I-L Inc., a former investment strategies analyst and international relations manager. A graduate of Punjab University and the University of Missouri, he has lived in Canada for the past 34 years. ©Copyright Hari Sud.)
