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The trump card of this group is restoring the judges that were previously fired by Musharraf. The chief justice and other judges, if restored, are likely to declare Musharraf’s presidential election null and void, removing him from power. If that happens it will be a great dilemma for U.S. policy toward Pakistan.
The United States has been working hard behind the scenes to keep Musharraf in power. Publicly they are for democracy in Pakistan; privately they have sounded the alarm on the possible exit of Musharraf. Two factions in Pakistan’s civilian government already show signs of splitting over this issue. A likely scenario is that one smaller faction will leave the government and another one or two factions, with Musharraf’s blessing, will join the coalition. The current bickering may end temporarily, but the question of Musharraf staying in office will still remain.
Musharraf since 9/11 has been the lynchpin of the U.S. War on Terror in Afghanistan for the wrong reasons. In exchange for money, he promised to help the United States catch the Taliban and al-Qaida top leadership. Yet this has not happened; only a few lower level leaders have been arrested. This bad management of the situation by both the United States and Pakistan has allowed al-Qaida and the Taliban to establish operational bases in Pakistan, with Pakistan watching helplessly and occasionally resisting.
The Taliban has used its Pashtun brotherhood on both sides of the Afghan border to establish itself and regroup. Al-Qaida uses the Taliban’s good offices to survive. Armed unmanned aerial vehicles flown out of Pakistan have been unable to locate and kill either the al-Qaida or Taliban leaders. The Pashtuns could not be bribed to betray their leaders. Hence no matter how much the United States searches for the al-Qaida and Taliban leaders their efforts will prove useless.
Somewhere in the caves on the Afghan-Pakistan borders the Taliban and al-Qaida have been enjoying the U.S. predicament. This stalemate has also made the Pashtun population a bit bold. Local mullahs have been fighting a running battle with government forces that were hastily sent to the area to quell the rebellion a year back. They have not succeeded – rather they have lost the fight and now wish for a peace deal.
The newly elected provincial government is seeking a peace deal to relieve pressure on the army and stop the bloodshed. This does not speak well of U.S. policy on Pakistan. All that money which has been spent to keep Musharraf and his men in power seems to have gone to waste.
This is the result of very careless U.S. diplomatic policy toward Pakistan. U.S. policy planners never learn from their mistakes. A similar U.S. blunder in supporting General Zia Ul Haq in the 1980s resulted in chaos when he suddenly died in a plane crash. If Musharraf is removed from power unceremoniously, the whole U.S. policy of appeasement of the armed forces will be dead. Whoever takes control may be unwilling to do the U.S. bidding. That could result in a well-armed Pakistan with religious leanings – a greater threat to the United States than any other time in history.
In the last 50 years, 60-70 percent of the aid the United States provided to Pakistan went to the military. Economic development and the welfare of the people were secondary. Hence the military became the premier institution at the expense of a backward and heavily under-educated populace. So they began educating themselves in madrassas run by mullahs. The net result was that the Taliban was created out of madrassa graduates. In addition, the people’s dislike for all things American has increased.
Take for example the last eight years of Musharraf’s rule. The United States provided roughly US$12 billion in aid. This aid was not tied to a specific purpose or project, it was a reward for good work, and Pakistan could use it any way it liked. Surprisingly, about $3 billion went to the economy and the rest was used to buy F-16 fighters, submarines and new weapons systems, including the recent acquisition of Saab AWAC planes from Sweden. Only $200 million was spent on education in the last 20 years.
The United States still believes that the new civilian leaders can be turned around if sufficient money is dangled in front of them. At the behest of the U.S. administration, the U.S. Congress, which is controlled by Democrats, is dangling a US$7 billion carrot in front of Pakistan. All they want in return is that Pakistan re-invigorates its war on the resurgent Taliban and al-Qaida in the frontier region of Pakistan.
Peace-minded Pakistani politicians are not about to swallow this bait, however. They were elected on an anti-Musharraf and anti-War on Terror platform. If they go back on these promises, they will loose the trust of the people. So this time around, bribery may be difficult.
That leaves the United States only one choice – to re-orient and reformulate its policy on Pakistan. It would be better if they withdrew their support from the Pakistani army and channeled the funds earmarked for the military to civilian use. Pakistan’s education system needs major improvements, industry and agriculture are in need of money to rebuild broken infrastructure, and some funds could be spent in the tribal areas to improve communications, build new schools and hospitals and generally cool down the tempers of the people. These moves would have a future value for the United States as well as Pakistan.
Osama bin Laden will not be caught, no matter how much the United States searches for him with UAVs or with spies. He will turn up somewhere in Pakistan or Afghanistan, old and infirm and without friends when he looses public support. This will happen when the benefits of U.S. money are felt all-round in the frontier region. It may take 10 years, maybe more, to accomplish this, but ultimately the locals will get tired of bin Laden and refuse to support him any more.
Continued U.S. support for the wrong people and the wrong causes will keep public opinion at a boil, and the people will keep supplying the mullahs with more and more jihadis to act as suicide bombers. The result will be a continued state of turmoil.
In summary, U.S. policy in Pakistan is a bunch of contradictions. It should be changed, and changed very soon. The Pentagon desk generals who have been driving this policy should be sidetracked. They have failed over the past seven years and they are unlikely to succeed in the next seven if the same policies are continued.
It is also high time that the Pakistani army is sidetracked. The United States should place civilian welfare at the top of the aid agenda. Education, industry, agriculture and social welfare should be the only institutions receiving aid.
Musharraf should be considered history. He has hoodwinked the United States enough; his removal should be welcomed.
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(Hari Sud is a retired vice president of C-I-L Inc., a former investment strategies analyst and international relations manager. A graduate of Punjab University and the University of Missouri, he has lived in Canada for the past 34 years. ©Copyright Hari Sud.)
