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Analysts have noted Medvedev’s choice to travel east rather than west like his predecessor Vladimir Putin, whose first trip abroad was to England when he took office in 2000. The choice is seen as a strong indication of the new president’s foreign policy orientation.
During his visit Medvedev met President Hu Jintao, and the two leaders promised to push forward their “strategic partnership of cooperation.”
In a speech at Tsinghua University in Beijing, Medvedev said that China-Russia relations were important in maintaining stability in the modern world. He told the students that cooperation between China and Russia was “aimed at maintaining a global balance."
Since 1989, China and Russia have enjoyed a normal and stable relationship, initiated by former President Boris Yeltsin and continued by Putin. Since the demise of the Cold War, Russian leaders have cultivated good relations with their biggest neighbor, setting aside nearly two decades of hostility.
The former Soviet Union was China’s biggest ally throughout the 1950s. China regarded the Soviet Union as an “elder brother,” and the two countries enjoyed a honeymoon period in the early years after the 1949 victory of the Chinese Communist Party in China’s civil war. Chinese industrialization in the 1950s benefited much from the support of the Soviet Union.
However, toward the end of the 1950s an ideological conflict broke out between the two communist states, which later extended to a state conflict. In 1969, war nearly broke out when the two confronted each other on Zhenbao Island in the Ussuri River on China’s northern border. Since that time China took a stand against “Soviet revisionism,” a term expressing China’s view that the Soviets had deviated from Marxist-Leninism.
Chilly relations lasted until 1989, when former Soviet leader Mikhail Gorbachev visited China and the two countries decided to normalize their relations. They did not go so far as to become allies, however, and maintained a careful sensitivity in avoiding interference in each other’s internal affairs. This was exemplified when the Tiananmen incident broke out in China in June, 1989, and during the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991.
Throughout the 1990s, China and Russia could be said to enjoy fair relations. The two positioned their relationship as a “strategic partnership of cooperation.” Both were involved in regional construction in Central Asia, and they coordinated their policies on certain issues including the Middle East and nuclear issues in North Korea and Iran.
Putin sought a slowdown in relations during his first term as president, over concerns that Chinese exports were making too many inroads into Russian markets and Chinese industries were taking up too much of Russia’s energy supplies. However, in his second term he somewhat reversed his policy in trying to keep a balance between the West and the East.
It is likely that Medvedev will abide by Putin’s diplomatic policy for the present, but on the other hand, he will definitely put his personal mark on policy in the future. His choice of China for his first visit abroad gives a clue to his thinking regarding diplomatic strategy.
Medvedev first wants to secure China’s support as a balance to Russia’s relations with the West. This strategy was already apparent in Putin’s final term. In the last few years Russia’s economy got a big boost due to rising energy prices, which largely derived from the effects of the Iraq war initiated by the United States.
Russia was able to take advantage of instability in the international oil market, and open up large oil reserves in its territory. But will this situation last? If the next U.S. president withdraws troops from overseas and turns the nation’s attention to domestic affairs, Russia might meet challenges from the United States.
Medvedev’s second consideration will be extending Russia’s heavy industry to China. Since the two have initiated a strategic constructive relationship, they must put some practical content into the agreement. In terms of mining, chemicals, agriculture, financial services and even military and space cooperation, there is great potential for a win-win relationship.
Russia must pay attention to China; otherwise Japan, Australia and other states might take priority in China’s foreign policy development. China’s big market and cheap labor can be useful to Russia. During his China visit, Medvedev said he wished to expand annual trade volume between the two countries to US$60 billion, then to US$70 billion. His economic aspirations played a major role on his China trip.
Medvedev’s third consideration is his hope of resolving outstanding issues between Russia and China. By 2007, according to Russian figures, China’s foreign direct investment in Russia had reached US$1.37 billion, while Russian investment in China was about US$60 million. Other issues including a trade imbalance, immigration problems, tariffs, financial credibility, pollution of border rivers, security for investment and individuals, the construction of an oil pipeline and providing oil supplies to China, have put a strain on the relationship.
The recent earthquake in China’s Sichuan province provided Medvedev a chance to strengthen relations with China through his show of friendship. A Russian rescue team was among the first overseas teams allowed to come to China. In an interview with Chinese media Medvedev specially used the communist term “Chinese comrades.”
All these efforts and factors indicate that Medvedev will do his best to keep China-Russia relations on a smooth track during his term. Most importantly, he shares with Chinese leaders a concern over the need to maintain a balance of power in what is often seen as a unipolar world.
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(Zhang Quanyi is an associate professor at the Zhejiang Wanli University in Ningbo, China, and a Ph.D. candidate at Shanghai International Studies University, studying policy making and collective identity. His research interests focus on conflict management and identity construction. He can be contacted at qyzhangupi@gmail.com. ©Copyright Zhang Quanyi.)
