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The government says that the LTTE initiated the battle while the LTTE says it was the government that launched the attack. The government claims to have killed hundreds of LTTE cadres while the LTTE claims to have done the same to the government troops. The government also claims to have advanced 500 meters and taken control of frontline LTTE bunkers, while the LTTE has posted photographs on its Web sites showing dead soldiers in trenches.
This is the third successive occasion within the space of 18 months that the government has sought to break through the LTTE's forward defense lines in Muhamalai. On the two previous occasions, the government lost large numbers of soldiers who stepped on minefields and were hit by artillery fire as soon as they left the safety of their own front lines. It appears that this time also the casualties have been high, even though the government denies this.
The question is whether the high costs of the Muhamalai battle will translate into a change of approach on the part of the government and LTTE. Anyone in their proper senses who values human life above all other values would be inclined to seek another way to resolve the conflict after such a bloodbath. Casualty figures on both sides, both dead and injured, could be close to or even exceed the 1,000 mark. Unfortunately the immediate responses of both the government and the LTTE suggest that neither of them intends to change their confrontational and battlefield-centered approaches.
The LTTE's bombing of a crowded passenger bus in the vicinity of Colombo, killing 26 commuters and injuring 62 at the same time as it held the Sri Lankan army at bay in the north, would take the gloss off the government propaganda that the LTTE is weak and a speedy end to its resistance is in sight. On the contrary, the government's losses in the battlefields of the north, coupled with its inability to keep the south clear of terrorism, would raise the level of doubt in the minds of most reasonable people. They would wonder what actual progress the government has made in defeating the LTTE and ending the scourge of terrorism. They may now see a bleak future stretching indefinitely ahead.
The message put out by the LTTE is also very discouraging -- that it is ruthless in its efforts to undermine the government and is prepared to inflict any cost on civilians to get its way. The LTTE's willingness to target civilians demonstrates that it is unprepared to accommodate and respect human values that peace negotiations require if they are to be successful. The bombing of the bus would strengthen the position of those in the government who argue that the LTTE will not be prepared to negotiate for peace and therefore it has to be eliminated at all costs.
The government has shown no immediate sign that it is prepared to reconsider its strategy toward the LTTE. Its response to the high costs of the Muhamalai battle has been to claim that the LTTE has paid the higher price and to shift public attention to the recapture of the Madhu church in the north. The government's decision to give publicity to the recapture of the Madhu church would be to impress the general population that it is making steady progress in the north that wrests territory away from the LTTE, even if it has been slower than expected.
In these cruel circumstances, the hope for change will necessarily lie outside the realm of the government and LTTE as they are presently constituted. The electoral process is one method by which democratic societies provide for change to come about. The forthcoming provincial council election in the Eastern Province on May 10 provides an opportunity for the issue of a military or political solution to be canvassed among the people. As the Eastern Province is multi-ethnic and has experienced a war with a decisive military outcome, the verdict at this election could turn out to be a catalyst of change.
One of the more positive features of the present time has been the implementation of procedures to conduct the elections in the east. So far there has been relatively little open violence during the election campaign. There has also been a high degree of interest in the elections, with a record number of candidates seeking election to a provincial council. The verdict at this election could either strengthen the government's determination to continue with its military approach, or it could delegitimize it by showing that this is not what the people want.
The other source of hope must lie in civil and religious society that is independent, and is not co-opted by power politics, whether of the government, opposition or LTTE. These sectors of society are in a position to withdraw their support from the militarism of the government and the LTTE, and instead seek their transformation. Without the transformation of the government and the LTTE, and leadership for such transformation from civil and religious society, there can be neither peace nor justice in Sri Lanka.
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(Dr. Jehan Perera is executive director of the National Peace Council of Sri Lanka, an independent advocacy organization. He studied economics at Harvard College and holds a doctorate in law from Harvard Law School. ©Copyright Jehan Perera.)
