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Hakeem was a Cabinet minister in the government as late as last December, when his need for security was deemed to merit 23 security personnel. Given the power of the government to award patronage to its supporters in a variety of forms, including both financial largesse and personal security, joining the government has become an attractive proposition. By the same token, to leave a government and join the opposition requires considerable political courage. It is not only the power they wield when they hold elected office that earns politicians the respect of people; it is also the risks that they take.
Hakeem has already paid a heavy price for his unwillingness to stay with the government. When he left the government his security detail was reduced to a mere five, and it required an appeal to the judiciary to get this number increased to eight. Now, following his decision to resign his parliamentary seat and contest the Provincial Council elections, the government is trying again to reduce his security. The attorney general has petitioned the judiciary to reduce Hakeem's security to that of a contestant in the Provincial Council elections.
On the other hand, as leader of the Sri Lanka Muslim Congress, which is one of the most important political parties in the country and which represents a major ethnic community, Hakeem is one of the most important leaders in the country. His importance is magnified by the fact that Sri Lanka is today a country wracked by war and terrorism. The assassination of his former Cabinet colleague Jeyaraj Fenandopulle by a suspected LTTE suicide bomber underscores the vulnerability of the country's top political leadership to acts of terrorism. In these circumstances, the attempts on the part of the government to reduce Hakeem's security can only be seen as an unacceptable act of political retaliation.
It is evident that the government is taking the challenge posed by the Eastern Provincial Council election very seriously. Apart from seeking to punish Hakeem and intimidate him so that he cannot campaign effectively in the east, the government has decided to deploy its ministers in each of the eastern electorates to ensure its victory. A defeat at those elections could set in motion a downward spiral, where the loss of confidence in the government's political future could grow. At the present time the government is being hard pressed on multiple fronts, which include the economy, possible international sanctions and destabilization by the LTTE.
A further consequence of a poor electoral performance in the Eastern elections would be to undercut the government's democratic rationale for the war. Through its propaganda machine the government has been making it known that the people of the east are extremely happy with what the government has been doing in that part of the country. The one-horse race that occurred during the Batticaloa local government elections, and which saw the government and its ally the TMVP romp home to easy victory, may turn out to be an ephemeral one.
It would be ironic, but not too surprising, if the people of the Eastern Province, whom the government recently liberated from the LTTE's undemocratic rule, should vote against the government when an alternative is available. The presence of Hakeem in the provincial polls will ensure that a quality alternative is available. If the government should suffer an electoral defeat in the Eastern Province, it would make it more difficult for it to justify the continuing high cost of the war. It would suggest that the multiethnic population of the east has felt that the cost of war is too great. It would also suggest that from the people's perspective, replacing the tyranny of the LTTE's armed rule with that of the TMVP's armed rule is not the people's choice, notwithstanding the TMVP being in partnership with the government.
On the other hand, the willingness of a politician of Hakeem's stature to resign his parliamentary seat and contest for a position in the Eastern Provincial Council will do much to bolster the image of the provincial council system. So far the system has been a stepping stone for provincial politicians to get into Parliament. The emergence of Hakeem as a leader in the Eastern Provincial Council could ensure that there will be a formidable political figure who will be championing the cause of the provincial council system. It holds out the hope that a political leader of his caliber will become a driving force in obtaining for the Eastern Province in particular, and for the entire provincial council system in general, an adequate amount of power and resources. If this should happen an important part of the solution to the ethnic conflict would have been found.
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(Dr. Jehan Perera is executive director of the National Peace Council of Sri Lanka, an independent advocacy organization. He studied economics at Harvard College and holds a doctorate in law from Harvard Law School. ©Copyright Jehan Perera.)
