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Burma's referendum will stir civil unrest

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Bangkok, Thailand — U.N. special envoy Ibrahim Gambari is in Burma again, but the Burmese people have lost confidence in him. His mandate from the world body is not strong enough to handle the situation in the country.

Gambari urged the ruling junta on Feb. 28 to re-examine its draft Constitution, which will be subjected to a national referendum in May. He discussed the matter further with Burma's military leaders on Friday.

Gambari said earlier in an interview in Tokyo that the release of Nobel laureate Aung San Suu Kyi is imperative for the process of democratization in Burma. He said that the junta should take into account the contributions and opinions of her National League for Democracy in the new Constitution.

Gambari also urged the junta to release political prisoners, including Suu Kyi, and allow freedom of expression. One of his important messages is that the junta should allow the NLD to open offices throughout the country, as the party currently has an office only in Rangoon. These actions would improve the credibility of the junta's roadmap to democracy through events such as the referendum and general elections planned for 2010, Gambari said.

On Feb. 29 Christopher Hill, the U.S. Assistant Secretary of State for East Asian and Pacific Affairs, spoke out during a visit to Bangkok to condemn the military crackdown on protesters last September that left at least 31 people dead, according to U.N. figures.

"I think we all want to see Myanmar begin to improve its dialogue with its opposition, especially with the release of political prisoners including Aung San Suu Kyi," he said. "The process of ruling out those people has really left Burma in an isolated state and not a strong state for a country of such strategic importance and size," Hill told reporters.

Hopes for democratic change in Burma quickly faded, however, when the junta said the detained Suu Kyi could not run in the election, while her NLD party disapproved of the proposed Constitution.

On the same day, Feb. 29, British Secretary of State for Foreign and Commonwealth Affairs Meg Munn told reporters in Bangkok that the referendum in Burma must be an "indisputable process" rather than a "charade" to quash growing world pressure.

"The involvement of the NLD is essential and it needs to be a genuine process leading to democracy, not something that is just put in place to satisfy the pressure that is there from the international community for change," Munn said.

After a meeting with Thailand's Foreign Minister Noppadon Pattama, Munn urged Burma's neighbors to put pressure on the inflexible regime to take steps toward democracy. Thailand and Indonesia can be seen as role models for Burma, as those countries have changed from military control to democratic practices, she said.

The NLD has warned that the ruling military junta's constitutional referendum could spoil the process of national reconciliation. The NLD was responding to the government's declaration of a law outlining procedures for the referendum and setting up a 45-member commission to take charge of the vote. The referendum is expected in May, but the exact date has not been disclosed.

As the members of commission are hand-picked by the junta, the NLD statement noted, the process lacks the trust of the people and can only harm national reconciliation.

The regime is attempting to legalize the military dictatorship with a sham Constitution and multiparty elections. Most people see the junta's referendum to endorse its Constitution and the new elections as a challenge against the people of Burma.

The junta claims that it has achieved economic and social progress in many sectors and has restored peace and stability; this is publicized on state-run radio and television. So it is now time to change the military administration to a democratic, civil administrative system, as good fundamentals have been established, the junta's media said.

The New York-based Human Rights Watch has drawn attention to the fact that in the draft Constitution presented at the end of a national convention last September, the government is aiming to codify the military's position as the unrivaled power in the country. That draft reserves 25 percent of parliamentary seats for military appointees, gives power to the head of the military to intervene in national politics, and allocates key government ministries to serving military officers. The draft makes many basic freedoms conditional on the approval of the Burmese military.

At the same time, the junta continues to detain and imprison more than 1,800 political prisoners, including Nobel Peace Prize winner Aung San Suu Kyi, who has been under house arrest on and off since 1990, leaders of the '88 Generation Students such as Min Ko Naing, Ko Ko Gyi and Htay Kywe, political leaders such as Shan leader Hkun Htun Oo and U Win Tin, a prominent journalist and executive member of the NLD, who at 78 has been languishing in prison since July 4, 1989.

Many political prisoners are reportedly seriously ill and receive only rudimentary health care. The International Committee of the Red Cross has been denied free access to conduct confidential prison visits since December 2005. Arrests and intimidation of political activists and journalists in Burma have been going on for two decades.

The military junta has already put on trial around 20 pro-democracy activists under a security law that allows prison sentences of up to 20 years. The dissenters were in custody in connection with the September pro-democracy demonstrations.

According to a lawyer for the detained dissidents, his clients were earlier charged with violating the Printing and Publishing Act 17/20, for which they face a maximum seven years imprisonment. They include prominent activists Min Ko Naing, Ko Ko Gyi, Jimmy and Htay Kywe of the 88 Generation Students group, whose protest against economic hardship detonated the September Saffron Revolution. But the lawyer of the detainees has not yet been able to meet his clients. This is further evidence of the junta's human rights abuses.

Genuine reform would require the State Peace and Development Council to take concrete measures to improve human rights, Human Rights Watch said. The group called for the release of all political prisoners, an end to censorship, and freedom for political parties and civil society groups to meet and discuss politics.

The military elite have run Burma under a variety of disguises since 1962. The moves for a referendum and elections came amid growing international pressure on Burma over its bloody crackdown on the monks and activists in the September Saffron Revolution, the biggest challenge to the military leaders in nearly 20 years.

The draft Constitution is seen as a well thought-out scheme of the junta and average citizens have stated their uneasiness that there may not be space for public consultation. People also fear that the junta's Constitution will be publicized within a very short time, that voters will be forced to vote for it, and that the elections that follow will be fraudulent.

By contrast, Suu Kyi confidently stands on the 1990 election result, which she and the NLD won. The military junta asserts that the representatives of its national convention are true delegates of the nation, and stubbornly refuses to recognize the representatives elected in 1990. The fact is that the junta does not want to allow the NLD delegates to participate in the Constitution drafting committee.

On Jan. 30, during the fifth meeting with the Liaison Minister Aung Kyi, Suu Kyi repeated her call to include true representatives of ethnic groupings in the talks. She also articulated her dissatisfaction with the meetings with Aung Kyi and the lack of any time frame for the talks. Suu Kyi has spent a total of 12 years under house arrest at her lakeside home in Rangoon, allowed little contact with the outside world.

After the fifth meeting with the liaison minister, Suu Kyi met with eight of her colleagues, and warned them to be committed to the prolonged struggle. "Let's hope for the best and prepare for the worst," she told central executive committee members of the NLD.

Her prediction now seems to be true. The junta not only ignores its own promises to talk with Suu Kyi, but it also ignores the U.N.'s decisions and the role of the U.N. special envoy. The chief of the junta, Than Shwe, degrades the role of political parties and civil society in Burma. He disdains Suu Kyi's role as a representative of the majority of the people.

Therefore, it is clear that the junta will not take into account the people's political aspirations or the concerns of the international community.

Further political unrest may be unavoidable around the time of the referendum in May, due to the junta's unilateral insistence on legalizing its own military-privileged Constitution. When that happens, the United Nations, ASEAN and even China will lose face because of their failure to prevent the ugly actions of the Burmese junta.

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(Zin Linn is a freelance Burmese journalist in exile. He spent nine years in a Burmese prison as a prisoner of conscience. He now serves as information director of the National Coalition Government of the Union of Burma, and is vice-president of the Burma Media Association. ©Copyright Zin Linn.)











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