Font size: 
It is not Omar's wish that the Pashtuns across the eastern border rise up in arms immediately. Instead, he wishes to slowly weaken the Pakistani hold in these areas and then snatch them away. Unknown to him, the local Taliban commanders have become too restive and have decided to win their independence immediately. This has upset Mullah Omar's plans for a fight in Afghanistan first.
Omar's strategy has a deep background. The British in 1893 created the Durand Line, which demarcates Pakistan from Afghanistan. Britain found it convenient to divide the Pashtuns in order to maintain peace. They continuously bribed tribal chiefs on the eastern side of the Durand Line to cooperate with them. Pashtuns on the other side of the border were continuously aroused to prevent a Russian takeover during much of the 19th century. This strategy worked until the 1978 Russian invasion.
Prior to that, Pashtuns in Afghanistan tried in 1957-58 to help their brethren on the Pakistani side with an armed revolt, but it was militarily crushed. The Soviet occupation of Afghanistan from 1978 to 1987 allowed Pashtuns on both sides to cooperate.
The United States used Pakistan's good offices to build a support structure and supply line to ultimately force the Soviets out. This was the beginning of the rise of Pashtun cross-border cooperation – which has created a hell for the U.S. and NATO forces in Afghanistan today.
There are about 37 million Pashtuns in Afghanistan and Pakistan. About 17 million live on the Pakistani side in the FATA and NWFP. The remaining 20 million live in southern Afghanistan. The Durand Line passes through the middle of this mass of humanity.
Pashtuns have never accepted a foreign power's control over them. First they fought the British, then the Soviets and now the U.S. and NATO forces. Latest to enter the fight are the Pakistani forces. On top of fighting the foreigners they fight between themselves when there is no enemy in sight. Tribal peace is a rare commodity in this part of the world.
A gun culture rules the Durand Line area. Disputes are settled either by the elders or by shooting down the offending party. It never ends. Other members of the same tribe throw their weight behind each other, hence disputes can go on for generations.
Excessive government interference is resented. Hence the Pakistani government on its side of the Durand Line often invites tribal elders to meetings, called "Jirga," to settle differences. The Afghan government on the other side also does the same.
FATA is run along the same lines as when the British left it 60 years ago -- through a centrally appointed administrator who stays as far away from local trouble as possible. The NWFP, on the other hand, is one of the provinces of Pakistan. It is run with a governor, senate, and assembly and holds elections like other provinces.
The FATA area is the most inhospitable area of the Pashtun homeland. It has a population of about 3 million and is divided into North and South Waziristan. The Wazirs are the main group among the Pashtun tribes who make this area their home. The Mehsud are a sub-tribe of the Wazirs, who live in the southern part of Waziristan.
The NWFP has a population of 14 million and is home to the Afridi, Mohamand, Saki, and Orakazai, Bhittani and other tribes. Peshawar is the provincial capital.
With this complex local administrative structure, it is always considered wise not to interfere in tribal matters. Hence the Pakistani government does not intervene. Local tribes in large numbers migrate to cities in Pakistan in summer for trade and work. The port of Karachi is home of the largest Pashtun population outside the Durand Line area.
After a lapse of 100 years of relative quiet, from 1880 to 1978, order in the area was disturbed when the Soviets invaded Afghanistan, and the United States with Pakistan's help sought to eject the Soviets. This effort did more harm than good, however.
After the Soviets left, tribal elders felt ignored in the face of a new religious cum political movement called the Taliban who, with Pakistani support, became the rulers of Afghanistan. They invited all the roughnecks of the world to make Afghanistan their home. This is how Osama Bin Laden arrived with his ragtag supporters.
The Pashtun homeland question was pushed far away as the Taliban remained dependent on Pakistan's support. But peace eluded the area. After 9/11 when the United States entered Afghanistan, the Taliban found escape to the Pakistani side of the Durand Line much easier. There they regrouped and took on U.S. and NATO forces, in a repeat of what they had done only 20 years back to eject the Soviets and 100 years back to eject the British.
This fight is far from settled. But in this massive confusion, young radicals on the Pakistani side of the Durand Line began to get ideas, to dream of ejecting the Pakistani forces from their homeland. They were angry about Pakistan's collaboration with the United States to hunt for the al-Qaida and Taliban leadership.
Omar, the Taliban chieftain, liked the idea of taking on the Pakistanis but wished the action postponed. The young radicals in the FATA and NWFP were not eager to wait, however.
A series of errors in judgment exercised by the Pakistani government made the situation go from bad to worse. First Pakistan threw in its lot with the United States to hunt Osama Bin Laden and Mullah Omar, which irritated the general population of the area. Second, religious extremists in Pakistan supported by Bin Ladin and Omar helped them to evade arrest. Third, Pakistan's preoccupation with Kashmir had sapped its energy on the Indian front and caused it to ignore the western border areas, where people were angry about a lack of development.
Fourth and most important was the Pakistani attack on Lal Masjid, or the Red Mosque, in Islamabad in the summer of 2007. This was the last straw in the complete alienation of the Pashtun population in the border region. Most of the students who died in that attack were sons and daughters of Pashtun tribal people.
Soon thereafter trouble in the FATA and NWFP began. Pakistan began to rush Frontier Constabulary to the area. They were beaten back in Swat, in South Waziristan and other areas including the Kohat Tunnel by a ragtag band of young Pashtun fighting men lead by Mullahs who owed their allegiance to Mullah Omar. Toward the end of 2007, Pakistan was forced to withdraw some of its better-trained professional soldiers from the Indian border and send them to the area.
This fighting did not please the Taliban chief Omar. He is the brainchild of the Pakistani intelligence services, hence would do nothing to upset the Pakistanis. Uppermost in his mind is expelling the United States from Afghanistan. Liberating the Pashtun areas in Pakistan is in the background. Once the U.S. troops are gone, then he will consider action to liberate the Pashtun areas in Pakistan.
Omar has been disciplining all the men fighting the Pakistani army. Recently he has managed the impossible -- forcing a ceasefire in South Waziristan. It may work or may collapse as earlier ceasefires have done, with the Pashtun populace up in arms against both the United States and their ally Pakistan.
Sooner rather than later, the fight for the Pashtun homeland will begin. This is no different from the Kurds' fight of over 40 years in Iraq, Turkey and Iran. Difficult terrain makes the success of guerilla action by the Pashtuns a possibility.
Any withdrawal of forces by Pakistan from the Indian border in order to secure the Durand Line will be considered a failure of its Kashmir policy. All of this is the result of Pakistan's India-centric policy of confrontation. Focused on this, Pakistan has ignored other problems, including Pashtun backwardness.
--
(Hari Sud is a retired vice president of C-I-L Inc., a former investment strategies analyst and international relations manager. A graduate of Punjab University and the University of Missouri, he has lived in Canada for the past 34 years. ©Copyright Hari Sud.)
