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Musharraf's comments in European capitals last week were aimed at shoring up support for his vision of a democratic Pakistan -- factoring in his and the military's hand on the levers -- and assuring the world that the nuclear arsenals are held close to his chest in a multilayered embrace.
Large promises of transparent, free and fair elections on Feb. 18, however, do not rouse the supporting voices of the two major Pakistani political parties, civil society or the people. Politicians, civil society and most Pakistanis also do not buy the government's -- and now the U.S. Central Intelligence Agency's -- version of Benazir Bhutto's assassination.
Is the United States then taking Musharraf's word against that of Pakistan's civil society and political parties, thinking he is the one with whom they can do business? Musharraf's logic -- saying he will step down when he is convinced the people do not want him -- does not hold water with civil society.
Civil society would be the bedrock of any possible democratic set-up in feudal Pakistan. Civil society wants Musharraf to step down.
Musharraf must be hoping for a Republican Party victory in the next U.S. presidential election, which would somewhat maintain the status quo, while preparing for a Democratic Party win by hard-selling his case in Europe. Former U.S. President Bill Clinton's personal equation with former ousted Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif would seal his fate if Hilary comes to power. Barack Obama has talked of sending U.S. troops into Pakistan during his presidency if hideouts of the al-Qaida leadership are discovered there.
While U.S. commanders on the ground in Afghanistan talk of the Taliban and al-Qaida militants, Musharraf talks of battling only the Taliban, not al-Qaida. The Taliban has now become more important, while going after al-Qaida is not. But the United States is in Afghanistan to defeat a resurgent Taliban and flush out the al-Qaida masterminds of 9/11.
A New York Times article recently blew the whistle on the involvement of the Pakistani army and intelligence agency in nurturing the Taliban, then dumping and gunning for them when the U.S. stepped up the heat after 9/11. Taliban factions have turned against the Pakistani army, and al-Qaida sleeper cells operate in Pakistani occupied Kashmir and even in Bangladesh, under the Harkat-ul-Jehad-al-Islami.
Pakistan's side of the fight in the U.S. war on terror was all about double standards. Some terror groups were kept as stock-in-trade to carry on a proxy war within India with the support of the Inter-Services Intelligence. Musharraf has sustained his U.S. alliance without jeopardizing the traditional agenda of the military and ISI.
Musharraf is now banking on an icon-less Pakistan People's Party coasting to victory on a wave of sympathy for the slain Benazir Bhutto. Having earlier lifted corruption charges and freed Bhutto's husband, Asif Zardari, Musharraf hopes his hold on the party will remain intact. This arrangement would suit U.S. interests too. But with other dissenting voices coming to the fore and possible fissures within the PPP, the plan may be deranged.
Musharraf's open offer to exhume Bhutto's body to assist in an investigation was stonewalled by Zardari, who had earlier ruled out exhumation but now says he will allow it only if the united Nations steps in. But the United Nations cannot step in, since the death did not involve more than one nation -- and Musharraf doesn't want it to.
When NATO arms supplies through Pakistan get ambushed -- despite Musharraf's claim that he has the finest fighting force in the world -- recent calls to bolster U.S. military assistance to Pakistan to fight militants and secure its nuclear arsenal may lead to the presence of troops on the ground, with disastrous consequences.
Pakistan's ISI and military are stewing in their own juice, and support for Musharraf, embedded in the psyche of U.S. policy in the region, is ebbing away. The military may be the strongest institution, but it has the least popular support. It would not risk a coup.
Musharraf, who has trampled on the judiciary, gagged the press and imprisoned protestors, is hardly a showcase U.S. ally who will allow democracy to reign.
To salvage U.S. credibility among democracy-loving Pakistanis, Musharraf is not indispensable, but civil society is. The U.S. priority should be the training of Pakistani troops, maybe in the mainland United States, rather than sending troops to Pakistan.
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(Susenjit Guha is a freelance writer living in Kolkata, India. ©Copyright Susenjit Guha. )
