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Also, in a Jan. 5 radio address he had said that U.S. security depends at least in part on solving the ancient enmity in the Holy Land. Yet his trip did little or nothing toward creating lasting peace in the Middle East, where conflicts and wars have lasted for centuries.
The tremendous challenges facing Bush must have struck him as he traveled from Israel and the West Bank to the Arabian Peninsula and Egypt. The long-term stability of the governments that are allied with the United States -- Iraq, Afghanistan, and Pakistan -- remains uncertain. Efforts by France and the Arab League to broker a solution to a constitutional crisis in Lebanon also remain fragile, and major dissident actors like Hamas, Hezbollah, and al-Qaida will strain every muscle to prevent diplomatic success on Bush's watch.
The harassment of U.S. Navy ships by five Iranian speedboats in the Strait of Hormuz on Jan. 6, two days before Bush's trip, sent a signal that his attempts to drum up support in the region would not go unchallenged.
Not only the United States, but many players in the Middle East are concerned about Iran's rising influence. That is the reason, analysts say, that some 15 countries from the region attended the Middle East peace conference in Annapolis, Maryland last November. Some say the purpose of the conference was aimed less at advancing the peace process between Palestine and Israel than at establishing a coalition to contain Iran. Iran was not invited to attend, while its allies, such as Syria, were invited in hopes of further isolating Iran.
In the United Arab Emirates, Bush called on the nations of the region to unite against Iran and al-Qaida. In Saudi Arabia he backed up the proposal by announcing a US$20 billion weapons sale to the country.
If Iran seeks to revive its historical influence in the Middle East, it can change the geopolitics and disrupt the U.S. strategy of reconstructing the region into a bastion of democratic and pro-U.S. nations.
Iraq is clearly too weak to compete with Iran, its old opponent, with whom it fought an eight-year war from 1980-1988. If U.S. troops withdraw from Iraq the country will be further weakened, and with the help of Shiite forces inside the country that are sympathetic to Iran, Tehran could further destabilize the country.
Iran's rise is not welcomed by Egypt or Kuwait, either. For them Iran is a potential competitor for power in regional affairs, and also a potential source of domestic instability in rallying their people to a vision of Islamic leadership.
Iran's rise is most substantially a threat to Israel, as Tehran has made it clear that it does not intend to peacefully co-exist with Israel. There is no foreseeable solution to the conflict between Israel and the Arab states, especially if an increasingly powerful Iran insists on enmity with Israel as a condition for relations with Tehran.
A U.S. strategy consisting of threats and efforts to disengage or contain Iran might not be the best way to handle the country's rise, however. Instead, the United States should attempt to use "soft power" in dealing with Iran in an effort to get it to engage with the international community. The United States should also encourage other major countries like Russia, China, India and the European countries to engage with Iran rather than isolate it.
Rome was not built in a day. Solving the enmities in the Middle East will require a long-term, consistent and constructive engagement with the region. Bush has promised to stay engaged, but it is doubtful that his remaining year in office will be time enough to resolve centuries of conflict in the world's most volatile region.
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(Zhang Quanyi is an associate professor at the Zhejiang Wanli University in Ningbo, China, and a Ph.D. candidate at Shanghai International Studies University, studying policy making and collective identity. His research interests focus on conflict management and identity construction. He can be contacted at qyzhangupi@gmail.com. ©Copyright Zhang Quanyi.)
