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The short-sightedness of Philippine politicians is reflected in the quality of policies, laws, and programs of the government. Projects are designed to last only until the next election. The main criterion in crafting policies is to improve the winning chances of politicians. Sustainable development is alien to the vocabulary of politicians. When leaders think long-term, they refer to the years it would take them to become president of the republic.
In the past six months, politicians who are eligible to run in the 2010 presidential elections have been very visible and noisy in mainstream media. Potential candidates have been named already and are in fact not hiding their intention to run in 2010.
It is doubtful that the TV ads placed by administration politicians can really be considered public service broadcasts. They are more like publicity gimmicks to win over the electorate. Surveys commissioned by the opposition, showing the negative public perceptions of President Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo, can also be described as part of the pre-2010 election mudslinging activities.
Public interest takes a backseat as the behavior of politicians is now influenced by the motive to win in the 2010 polls. Well-financed lobby groups are already courting candidates with big chances of succeeding in 2010.
Most analysts agree that the opposition has more popular candidates which it could field in 2010. The opposition stands to benefit from the public dissatisfaction with Arroyo and her government. Besides, there seems to be no strong contender from the administration coalition.
But being a famous candidate is not enough to win in the polls. The 2004 elections proved that even the most popular candidate can still lose if he or she does not enjoy the backing of a solid political machinery. More than a political platform, a candidate needs resources and professional election operators to win in Philippine elections.
Indeed, the opposition has very popular candidates in its roster. But it remains highly factionalized. Its grassroots machinery is weak. Local politics is still dominated by the administration. And if division persists until 2010, it is unlikely that the opposition can field a single candidate.
After scoring a symbolic victory in the midterm polls last year, the opposition should have endeavored to strengthen its machinery. Political and personal differences within the opposition ranks should have been resolved by now if they really want to dominate the 2010 polls. Personal ambitions should be sacrificed in order to come up with a single strong candidate who can challenge the administration bet.
But it seems fated that the opposition should remain disorganized. All of the opposition senators want to become president of the country. This was the same reason why the opposition failed to capture the leadership of the Senate even if they are the majority in the upper chamber of Congress.
Looking back, the failure of the opposition to unite in 2004 made it easy for the administration to justify the dubious victory of Arroyo over her popular rival. Will history repeat itself in 2010?
Perhaps sensing the need to have a unity ticket in the next election, former President Joseph Estrada offered himself as the possible candidate of the opposition. This remains the explosive news of the New Year which has energized debates in various political circles.
Assuming that Estrada is eligible to run again as president, this does not necessarily mean an easy victory for the opposition. It is likely that an Estrada candidacy will further divide the opposition and middle-class forces. It is true that Arroyo is not popular among the poor; but Estrada remains a despised political figure among many civil society groups and educated segments of the population.
The fact that the opposition is contemplating to field Estrada as the standard bearer in the 2010 polls is indicative of the failure of opposition politicians to frame the 2010 elections as a broader campaign of the people to render judgement against the Arroyo presidency.
Yes, the administration's chances of dominating the 2010 polls are dim. Yes, the administration does not have popular candidates on its bench. But it has money, logistical resources, party machinery and the loyalty of local officials. The administration has the expertise to magically influence election results. In short, it is more organized than the opposition.
In analyzing the political fortune of the administration, it is important to consider the role of Arroyo. She is both the greatest source of strength and weakness of the administration party. Far from being a lame duck president, Arroyo will continue to be a major political player until the 2010 elections.
It is Arroyo who will appoint the new officers of the Commission on Elections. This is very crucial in determining the poll results in 2010. Arroyo commands the loyalty of military generals and most of the political dynasties in the country. As long as there is money to give, Arroyo will continue to enjoy the allegiance of local politicians.
If all else fails, Arroyo and her cronies can tinker with the Constitution. This was unsuccessfully attempted in 2006, but they can still renew this proposal this year. They can extend the terms of elected officials, cancel the 2010 elections, and institute a federal parliamentary form of government.
If Arroyo's strong leadership is the administration's key to success, it may also spell an electoral defeat in 2010. Arroyo is perceived by the people to be the most corrupt Philippine president. She is accused of abetting human rights violations in the country. Her economic policies are praised by economists and big business while more people have become poorer and prone to hunger.
The 2010 elections will either end a decade of Arroyo's power or lead to the ascendancy of one of Arroyo's cronies. This makes it imperative for the opposition to organize its ranks and present a formidable line-up of candidates.
Meanwhile, as politicians from both the opposition and administration parties are keenly eyeing the presidency in 2010, this is also the time to search for alternative candidates with the potential to win and change Philippine politics for the better.
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(Mong Palatino is a Filipino youth activist, news editor of Yehey!, a Philippine-based web portal, and a Global Voices correspondent. His Web site is www.mongpalatino.motime.com, and he can be reached at mongpalatino@gmail.com. ©Copyright Mong Palatino.)
