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On the other hand, the assassination of former Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto in Pakistan shows how violence can suddenly change the political landscape and add to a chaotic situation, from which it is going to be difficult to emerge.
Top government leaders have been asserting that the war with the LTTE could be over in a matter of a few months, less than a year. They are confident that the big powers of the world are behind them on account of the much bigger U.S.-led war against terrorism.
Although the United States has restricted its direct military assistance to Sri Lanka on account of human rights abuses, its allies such as Pakistan stand ready to fill any military vacuum. Indirect Indian blessings to the government may be seen on account of the forthcoming visit to Sri Lanka of Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh as the chief guest at the country's 60th anniversary of independence.
As a result of their confidence the government does not appear to be interested in the slightest in trying to revive the peace process. Instead, Defense Secretary Gotabhaya Rajapaksa has said that the government can make a fresh start to address Tamil grievances by banning the LTTE and abolishing the ceasefire agreement, which he said has become a joke. New proposals for a political solution would be put forward by the government after this was done, he said, although it is not clear why those proposals cannot be put forward before such actions are taken, which would be the better course.
There is a serious danger that the government may be miscalculating the LTTE's tenacity as a guerilla force and the Tamil people's own commitment to a federal political solution, which the present government leadership has repeatedly said is impossible to offer. Although the LTTE stands severely discredited in the eyes of most of the world, and justifiably so, it still continues to be a formidable fighting machine. The LTTE has shown itself still capable of mobilizing its cadres for suicide attacks. As an independent state of Tamil Eelam appears out of sight, the suffering and discrimination suffered by the Tamil people is likely to be the continuing motivating factor.
Before the hubris of military victories clouds the judgment of the government leadership, there is a need to recall that even greater defeats inflicted on the LTTE in the past did not end the war. In 1995, the government under President Chandrika Kumaratunga's leadership recaptured Jaffna city which had been under LTTE control and been made its administrative capital for close on five years. There was much jubilation in the government and the people were made to believe that the war would end soon.
But it did not. On the contrary, after the capture of Jaffna the country was to experience the most costly phase of the war with the fall of major military bases, such as Mullaitivu, at the cost of thousands of lives and the loss of long-range artillery guns and tanks. As the government forces spread thin to physically occupy more territory, their ability to defend themselves and government property against guerilla attack diminished.
The country may be heading for a similar situation today, even though the LTTE has been broken up in the east and the government has access to superior surveillance and bunker-busting bombs unlike in the past. The LTTE attack on the Anuradhapura air force base two months ago was a harsh reminder of the cost of war both in terms of the lives lost and the aircraft destroyed.
The government appears to be glossing over these lessons from the past also on account of its dependence on its nationalist allies. Significantly, Defense Secretary Rajapaksa's pronouncements on banning the LTTE and abrogating the ceasefire agreement conform to two of the demands of the Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna, or People's Liberation Front, made prior to the budget vote and made a condition for their support. When the JVP initially made these demands the government resisted them, perhaps on account of its unwillingness to displease the international community by so clearly shutting the door to any prospect of a negotiated political settlement with the LTTE. However, it now appears that the government is ready to make the call of the JVP its own.
Therefore it appears that the government is being compelled, by its own choices and the pressures exerted on it by its allies, to base its political future on the hope of a military victory. Any failure to make a military breakthrough in the next several months will mean that the government will find itself in a politically unsustainable position, with the economy in a downward spiral.
The danger inherent in the government's position, especially in the event of a total rejection of the past peace process with the LTTE, is that it is paving the way for a fight to the finish where the costs can be terribly high, success is not guaranteed, and no fallback position will be available.
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(Dr. Jehan Perera is executive director of the National Peace Council of Sri Lanka, an independent advocacy organization. He studied economics at Harvard College and holds a doctorate in law from Harvard Law School. ©Copyright Jehan Perera.)
