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Former Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi made considerable progress down this path. His successor, Shinzo Abe, was expected to continue and upgrade Koizumi's policies. However, as Abe persisted in stressing ideological and nationalist issues, failing to address the aftermath of Koizumi's liberalization reform, public support for his Liberal Democratic Party swiftly declined. As a result, he led the party to its worst defeat to the opposition Democratic Japan Party in the Upper House election in July.
This destabilized the vision of a return to "normal state" status -- implying the build-up of the country's military -- and transferred political initiative to the party that opposes this idea.
Even though Koizumi's liberalization reform efforts were successful and put the overall economy in good shape, they caused some serious problems including social division, a budget deficit and a high level of youth unemployment. Unfortunately Abe did not address these issues, resulting in public frustration.
Abe's major mistake was first exposed by his party's defeat to the opposition in the general election. It turned out that Abe's misplaced priorities had eroded his party's strong, long-standing support base: farmers in rural areas.
Abe had focused on revising the Constitution to allow Japan to participate in military actions related to "collective security" -- meaning authorized by the U.N. Security Council. Opposition leader Ichiro Ozawa, however, argued for the protection of agriculture and pension reforms, addressing the growing desperation in rural areas for remedies to income inequality produced by structural reform.
The problem was not that voters disagreed with Abe, but that they considered his main issues to be less urgent than the problems confronting them in their real lives.
Abe's other miscalculation occurred when the government revealed it had lost the records for 50 million pension premium payments. Although the scandal preceded his term in office, he failed to address the deepening public frustration over economic instability. Rather than taking responsibility for solving the problem he claimed he was not to blame.
Although these failures did not prove Abe's policy direction wrong, they indicated the weakness of his ideological and nationalistic slogans in the face of more basic issues at the heart of the Japanese people's frustration. He unexpectedly announced his resignation on Sept. 12, leaving his successor, Yasuo Fukuda, to shoulder very serious political burdens.
Fukuda had to soothe public dissatisfaction despite the fact that the DJP controlled the Upper House and was in a position to undermine the LDP's domestic policy initiatives. This was even more critical on international issues, as it was likely to put Japan's alliance with the United States at risk.
Domestically, Fukuda's administration must struggle with the budget deficit because the opposition party, with the next Lower House election in mind, will not easily cooperate on the 2008 budget bill. Failure to resolve this could encourage the Japanese people to consider the DJP as a true political alternative rather than just an avenue to express their discontent -- even though the economic problems would have been made worse by the DJP's recalcitrance.
Fukuda attempted to resolve this discord by proposing a grand coalition of the two major parties, but this was not accepted by the DJP, meaning the two will face another battle over the Lower House election. If public support shifts toward the DJP in the election, this could cause the reversal of the so-far smooth moves toward the normal state.
The normal state concept emerged first with regard to the U.S.-Japan alliance and then led to the proposed revision of the Constitution. The strategic significance of the alliance between Tokyo and Washington has grown further in the face of the growth of China. With the boost supplied by this alliance, Japan has sought to achieve the status of a normal state. However, the alliance faced the grave risk of falling into a stalemate due to Japan's de facto non-cooperation, brought about by the failure of domestic politics.
The Fukuda administration failed to provide the United States with necessary military cooperation after the DJP blocked the extension of the Anti-terrorism Special Measures Law, which had permitted Japan to play a role in refueling operations for coalition ships in the Indian Ocean.
Ozawa of the DJP basically considers all such operations in support of the U.S. anti-terror campaign, overseas deployment of Japanese armed forces, and any other military action beyond the purpose of the security of Japan without U.N. authorization, to be in violation of the Constitution. The DJP has objected to any revision of the Constitution with a view to expanding Japan's military operations. Therefore, if the DJP achieves another victory in the Lower House election next year, it could damage the prospects of achieving normal state status.
Another emerging factor that might weaken progress toward normal state status is the argument in favor of putting some distance between Japan and the United States. Advocates of this position are upset over a recent U.S. Congressional resolution asking Japan to accept responsibility for its wartime "comfort women," and also by the United States' warming relations with North Korea. Support for this position has come from the center right of both the LDP and the DJP.
It is possible that Fukuda's LDP can overcome the current obstacles in domestic politics as it prepares for the general election and the subsequent political process. Yet, if Japan hopes to become a significant political player in the world, there is one more thing it must do. That is to address Japan's past wrongdoing related to comfort women and its military invasions.
Japan should not seek to cover up these issues any more. If Japan believes it can still ignore these issues, as painfully demonstrated in the defeat in the general election this year, this passive attitude could bring political defeat again, especially in the international arena.
Most recently, the European Union joined the United States in adopting a resolution to criticize Japan over the comfort women issue. This reflects the growing concern around the world over Japan's unsatisfactory attitude in these matters. Does Japan really want to see what comes next?
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(Lee Jae Young is a freelance writer and citizen reporter for Ohmynews International. He has a master's degree from Cornell University Law School in Ithaca, New York. ©Copyright Lee Jae Young.)
