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Even though the United Nations rejected its application and most members of the international community opposed Taiwan's action, leaders of the Democratic Progressive Party have claimed they will take further steps, such as suing the United Nations in the International Court. They also intend to hold a referendum on the issue, which is related to Taiwan's identity and future.
Taiwan's moves have raised serious concerns from China. Top Chinese leaders have on different occasions voiced strong warnings to DPP leader Chen Shui-bian to stop his pro-independence actions or take responsibility for the consequences.
Both of Taiwan's two main parties, the DPP and the Kuomintang, must be aware that any bid to join the United Nations or to seek independence for the island will not yield practicable results. As many analysts and media have pointed out, their real intention is simply to win votes in the 2008 election. After being elected, whichever party wins will seek a peaceful landing for the pro-independence campaign. Both are likely to seek serious negotiations with the Chinese Communist Party in Beijing.
Especially if the KMT wins the election, it is likely to initiate a policy of flexibility and reconciliation with the Communist Party. KMT candidate Ma Ying-jeou has declared that his party would be willing to sign a 50-year truce to guarantee peace across the Taiwan Strait.
However, the international community must realize that Taiwan's ongoing moves toward independence have created the possibility of a military response from China. If provocative actions continue they will bring an inevitable response. This could be a small-scale attack, yet even the smallest of battles can escalate to a regional or global war, as history shows -- even though no one wants to see this outcome.
Even though the United Nations has rejected Taiwan's application to join the world body, even though major countries including the United States and Japan have expressed disapproval over Taiwan's steps toward independence, the DPP seems to remain blind to the emerging risk. The party seems determined to hold a referendum over Taiwan's future; it seems determined to push its strategy toward "legal independence." The party leaders seem to think this is a good time for them to take steps toward establishing a "Taiwan Republic."
Their opportunistic deductions basically lie in their analysis of China's present situation. For Beijing, domestic affairs seem to be more important than Taiwan's actions at this time. Many presume that the upcoming 17th Communist Party Congress will focus on narrowing the economic gap between the developed east and the less developed west of the country. China also has other pending issues to deal with, such as curbing bribery and corruption and improving the management of state-owned enterprises. The CCP has declared its intent to create social harmony. The DPP may interpret this to mean the CCP will not engage in an additional conflict.
Also, Chinese leaders must concentrate on arrangements for the 2008 Olympic Games to be held next summer in Beijing. They have other troubles with the international community as well, including quality issues over products made in China, software pirating, information hacking and even human rights concerns. If war were to break out across the Taiwan Strait, foreign investments could be withdrawn, diplomatic ties could be cut, and other crises could occur. China could once again be isolated by the international community.
Such guesswork might be partly true. However, on Beijing's part, the issue of sovereignty is more salient than other issues. Beijing is concerned that Taiwan's actions could create a domino effect. If Taiwan were to become independent, Tibet, Xinjiang, Inner Mongolia and even other provinces could follow suit, thereby resulting in the collapse of central China and the CCP itself. China could return to a chaotic collection of warlord states -- which no one in China wants to see.
The strong warnings Beijing has issued to Taiwan are not merely symbolic. If Taiwan's provocative actions are not halted, war may be inevitable. For Beijing, Taiwan can make any move except a bid for sovereignty.
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(Zhang Quanyi is an associate professor at the Zhejiang Wanli University in Ningbo, China, and a PhD candidate at Shanghai International Studies University, studying policy making and collective identity. He is currently a research fellow at the School of International Studies at Yonsei University in Seoul, Korea, under a grant by the Korea Foundation. He can be contacted at qyzhangupi@yahoo.com. ©Copyright Zhang Quanyi.)
