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This is already an old issue. The recording was originally released to the public two years ago, which astounded everyone who couldn't believe that the president actually ordered an election officer to ensure her a 1 million lead over her closest rival in the presidential race.
The scandalous recording, which came to be known as the "Hello Garci" CD, triggered mass demonstrations, two impeachment complaints and military unrest. It undermined the credibility of the Arroyo administration and polarized Philippine institutions and society in general.
The president's allies in Congress succeeded in blocking any attempt to dig deeper on the issue. Cabinet members and military personnel were barred from testifying in the Senate without the approval of the president. Police and soldiers were ordered to disperse peaceful rallies to prevent another "people power" scenario in the streets.
The president was able to marshal the support of a majority of local governments by dangling the charter change initiative, which would have extended the terms of office of incumbent politicians. Some scholars believe that because of the "Hello Garci" scandal, the military was able to assert more influence in the unpopular Arroyo government which was desperately looking for a solution to the political crisis unleashed by the controversial recording.
In short, Arroyo survived the "Hello Garci" controversy but the issue remained unresolved.
Then here comes the retired intelligence officer who expressed willingness to testify in the Senate to renew an investigation of the case. As a private citizen, he is no longer covered by the executive directive which requires public officials to seek the president's permission before appearing in Congress.
The opposition-dominated Senate may have initiated the first blow against the administration but the president's allies seem poised to strike another legal victory. Administration senators agreed to open the case but succeeded in leading the probe away from the issue of electoral cheating. Instead, the Senate will focus on the breach of national security pertaining to bugging the phone of the president, who is the commander-in-chief of the armed forces.
It is uncertain whether the whole content of the "Hello Garci" CD will be played, as some senators have questioned the legality of airing the illegally wiretapped conversation in the Supreme Court.
The president's response to all this has been to boast of the robust performance of the economy. She appealed to the people to support her economic projects. As expected, administration politicians downplayed the revival of the probe. But surprisingly, there are no street rallies. Two years ago, the "Hello Garci" issue sparked nationwide protests calling for the president's resignation. Today, protest rallies are missing. Even some members of the opposition seemed lukewarm to the testimony of the former intelligence officer.
Perhaps fresh evidence is needed. The perceived lack of credibility of the witness should be addressed. And the Senate should not allow the probe to be another circus dominated by politicians and lawyers which would definitely douse public interest.
The political conditions are also different today. Administration politicians accused opposition senators of reviving the "Hello Garci" case to bolster their chances in the 2010 presidential elections.
But the elections can also be the reason why some opposition politicians are not actively participating in the probe. Reviving the issue could potentially unseat the president. If that happens, the vice president will assume the presidency. He will then have the upper hand in the presidential race three years from now. Opposition politicians with big ambitions cannot allow that scenario to happen.
The left, which provided the warm bodies in the nationwide rallies two years ago, does not seem eager to join the "Hello Garci" investigation. Its attention is focused on tackling the summary killings, forced disappearances, harassment and other human rights violations perpetrated by state agents.
The left probably does not want the government to launch another crackdown on leftist leaders like it did more than a year ago. The military exposed the alleged rightist-leftist plot to destabilize the government last year but it was the left which bore the brunt of government attacks. Leftist leaders were jailed while opposition politicians were not arrested.
There are also speculations that the camp of former President Joseph Estrada is using the "Hello Garci" issue to pressure the government in connection to the plunder case of the former president.
The "Hello Garci" controversy will always be associated with Arroyo, Commissioner Garcillano and the massive cheating during the 2004 elections. But it is highly improbable that this embarrassing issue will again fuel social unrest as it did two years ago. The issue has been used and will continue to be invoked to undermine the legitimacy of the sitting president. But the administration can always fight back by implementing repressive and politically untenable measures like the charter change, a calibrated preemptive response or declaring a state of national emergency.
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(Mong Palatino is a Filipino youth activist, correspondent for Global Voices and news editor of Yehey!, a Philippine-based Web portal. He can be reached at mongpalatino@gmail.com. His website is www.mongpalatino.motime.com. ©Copyright Mong Palatino.)
