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Prime Minister Shaukat Aziz also made a recent admission to the press that the option of proclaiming a state of emergency was under consideration. It's a constitutional mandate that the president has to act on the advice of the prime minister.
Pakistan has witnessed the imposition of military rule and states of emergency several times. This is despite the fact that the Constitution of 1973 provides for imposing a state of emergency only if the president is satisfied that a grave emergency threatens the security of Pakistan or any part thereof by war, external aggression or internal disturbances beyond the control of the provincial government. However, none of these three preconditions exist at present.
The second kind of emergency is the breakdown of the constitutional machinery in a state (Article 235) and the last is a financial emergency. In the past, whenever an emergency was imposed, it was always a debatable question. Except during the three wars with India, such actions were always taken to bring political gain for the rulers.
Now, all avenues are being considered to seek the continuation of Musharraf's rule as president as well as chief of the army. These efforts include underhanded deals with the leading political parties, reelection by the outgoing assembly, and the imposition of a state of emergency.
This is similar to the situation in 1970-71 when Gen. Yahya Khan -- despite a clear majority win by the Awami League in East Pakistan (now Bangladesh) as a result of the first ever free and fair elections held in Pakistan -- refused to transfer power to the elected representatives. Khan was subsequently declared by the Supreme Court as a "usurper" in the case of Asma Jilani, who contested his action in court. In the 1990's once again the Supreme Court of Pakistan considered declaring an emergency in two different cases, and ruled in favor of limiting its scope.
If a proclamation of emergency is issued, it is likely that the Supreme Court will receive petitions challenging the order, and once again the political battle will shift from the streets and Parliament to the corridors of the Supreme Court. It is likely that government lawyers may plead lack of jurisdiction before the Supreme Court in case fundamental rights are also suspended as a result of the emergency proclamation.
To Musharraf, the advantage of imposing an emergency is the hope that he could be re-elected in uniform before the election of new assemblies, as he appears to be uncertain about backing from the PML(Q), the party which, he has admitted in his book, was formed by him.
This month Musharraf passed the age of 65; the retirement age for federal services is 62 and the maximum age for a Supreme Court judge is 65. It is very strange to note that Musharraf is extending his tenure every year through different means, in clear breach of the Constitution, following in the footsteps of his predecessor Gen. Zia-ul-Haq.
On Aug. 23 a seven-member bench of the Supreme Court headed by the chief justice ruled that former Prime Minister Mian Nawaz Sharif and his brother Shahbaz Sharif could return from exile and take part in elections. At the same time, provincial and federal governments and all other agencies were directed not to prevent the Sharif brothers from returning to Pakistan.
The previous decision of the Supreme Court under former Chief Justice Nazim Hussain Siddiqui on the petition of Shahbaz Sharif now stands overruled. If the Sharif brothers do return to Pakistan it will create further difficulties for the ruling party. According to reasonable estimates, the political party of the Sharif brothers is more popular than the Pakistan People's Party and the PML(Q). However, if the arrival of Nawaz Sharif causes any disturbance of law and order, the government may exploit the situation as a pretext for imposing a state of emergency.
It is very fortunate for the ruling party that cracks have begun to appear in the alliance of opposition political parties. Unlike lawyers and representatives of the bar, the opposition parties are unlikely to align themselves on a common agenda. All the opposition parties have opposed the emergency proposal -- some in vehement opposition, some in order to save face.
Benazir Bhutto's PPP is supporting military operations in Wana and Waziristan, but these are opposed by the Muttahida Majlis-e-Amal and the Pakistan Muslim League (N). The province of Punjab, which has the most seats in Parliament, would be the battleground for the two main opposition parties, the PPP and PML(N), while the MMA would try to retain its majority in the Northwest Frontier Province and in some parts of Baluchistan. The recent increase in the popularity of opposition parties is not appreciated by the ruling party, which is pressing Musharraf to impose a state of emergency.
Be that as it may, it is not likely that elections could be held in October or November, as the voter list has not yet been completed. Benazir Bhutto has challenged the exclusion of some 20 million voters from the proposed list before the Supreme Court, which has directed the Election Commission to include the names of those voters and to remove the condition that they must have National Identity Cards. This is likely to take three to four months.
There is another rumor in political circles that U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice has intervened -- that she called Musharraf at a late hour and asked him not to impose a state of emergency. The present rulers are unpredictable, however, and the next few months will be very crucial for the nation.
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(Rasheed A. Razvi is a lawyer who served as a judge in the Sindh High Court until 2000, when he declined to renew his oath. He has served as president of the Karachi Bar Association and vice chairman of the Sindh Bar Council. He is a member of the Executive Committee of the Pakistan Bar Council and was elected its vice chairman in 2002. ©Copyright Rasheed A. Razvi.)
