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The second point of agreement is that none of this has impacted the popularity of President Mahinda Rajapaksa, especially in the rural heartland of the south. The president's confident image in the media, especially the government-controlled media, and the happy images of people surrounding him are in accord with that impression. However, in keeping with the truism that everything that is worldly is subject to change, there are indications that even the popularity of the president is not immune to the ravages of reality.
Six months ago, in December 2006, the government appeared to be at the height of popularity. It had vanquished the LTTE in the east and was dealing body blows to the opposition, taking away its stalwarts and adorning its own ranks with them. At that time I took part in a seminar in the southern capital of Galle with a group of provincial opinion leaders. Southern Province has a strong sense of regional identity, due to its predominantly Sinhalese population and to its historical role as the launching pad of resistance to ancient invasions from India. In the presidential election of November 2005 the electorate in the Southern Province voted overwhelmingly for its native son, Mahinda Rajapaksa.
The community leaders at the seminar had gone through several peace and conflict resolution training sessions, and gone on exposure visits to the north and east with the National Peace Council, with which I work. They were relatively well versed in issues related to the country's ethnic conflict, to international efforts to resolve the conflict and to the failure of previous government attempts to find a military solution.
Notable at that seminar was the community leaders' significant change in attitude following the advent of the Rajapaksa government. The overwhelming persuasive power of charismatic government leaders, with access to the state's instruments of propaganda, became evident in the discussions among those Southern Province community leaders. Their sentiments had hardened. Their ethnic and regional affinity for President Rajapaksa strengthened their belief that his government was on the road to that elusive and decisive military success against the LTTE.
On the other hand, this month when I attended a follow-up seminar with that same group of provincial leaders there appeared to be an equally significant change back to a more moderate opinion. The confidence many of them had expressed six months ago in the viability of the government's military campaign against the LTTE had given way to a more sober appreciation of realities. Not one of the more than 60 community leaders argued that the ongoing military campaign was a winning government strategy to uplift the country and resolve its problems. This was in sharp contrast to the militant sentiments that had been expressed six months ago.
Outside the seminar sessions, several leaders shared with me their concerns about the direction the government was taking. The fact that they lacked confidence to speak up publicly suggests that this rethinking of the government's strategy is a recent phenomenon. They may have worried that public expression of their negative sentiments would bring them trouble from the forces of intolerant nationalism that currently seem to be dominating the government. Uppermost among their concerns were the economic hardships they were facing due to increased living costs without a compensating expansion of employment opportunities.
The government's trump card -- its military success against the LTTE -- was also beginning to be questioned. The repeated demonstrations of the LTTE's ability to penetrate government defenses to attack Colombo have begun to shake public confidence. The supplementing of the LTTE's regular methods of remote-controlled bombs and suicide bombers with air power has eroded the people's growing faith in the possibility of a military solution. Euphoria over military victories in the east more than six months ago has been replaced by the realization that the country is back to the regular ebb and flow of military successes and defeats that existed in previous decades.
In this changed context, people's willingness to excuse the rising cost of living and human rights abuses now appears to be wearing thin. President Rajapaksa must take stock of the situation, take decisive action to restore the popularity of his government and truly take the country in the direction of peace and prosperity. Being consistent in word and deed and thereby generating trust, being prepared to share power and privileges with others, and valuing life as the supreme value above all others, would be some of the ingredients of that new vision for the country.
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(Jehan Perera is executive director of the National Peace Council of Sri Lanka, an independent advocacy organization. He studied economics at Harvard College and holds a doctorate in law from Harvard Law School.)
