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At home, the recent Democrat victory in the Congressional elections has emboldened the anti-war lobby. Now the Democrats want U.S. troops out sooner rather than later. Bush wants the same, but has a different timetable. The rest of the world is crying out for the prevention of the looming civil war.
No amount of additional military muscle will force peace. The Sunni - Shiite divide is too deep to be healed by outside intervention or a victory of one side over the other. Hence, if the United States packs its bags and leaves, as it did in Vietnam, civil war will follow. It will make previous Middle East wars over the last 1,400 years pale. The net result will be a dismembered Iraq.
If the United States decides to stay, it will be there for security and humanitarian reasons only. Right now, ordinary people in the market squares and in the streets are being blown to pieces by the hundreds. Each side of the religious divide is avenging previous attacks, with no end in sight. The United States would be forced to redirect its muscle from occupation to peacekeeping.
Al-Qaida and the Baaths have an unlimited supply of guerilla fighters. Saddam Hussein's disbanded army personnel are available in abundance. They are fully trained and capable of undertaking any anti-American or anti-Shiite activities with relish. Alas that Americans did not realize this early on! They demobilized and disbanded Saddam Hussein's army, and these army men are now the backbone of the Sunni insurgency.
In the same way, Shiites have obtained all kinds of help from Iran. They are well armed and ready to defend their hard-won position as a dominant force in Iraq. The U.S.-installed government in Iraq is also Shiite dominated; hence they indirectly support the Shiite insurgency cause. The hanging of Saddam Hussein is one example of Shiite domination. Had he lived, he could have been instrumental in establishing peace with the Baath Party and the army. Now he is dead, there is no credible leader left to govern.
Only recently, the Saudi Arabian king asked the Americans to leave. He was concerned about the possible capture of Iraq by Iranian interests. The Sunnis next door could not allow that to happen -- hence they want the Americans out. A U.S. departure would allow them to come to the rescue of their Sunni brethren. The current Shiite government's siding with Shiite interests has created a law-and-order disaster. The U.S. dilemma now is how to lessen the growing Shiite influence. They are finding it difficult to control either side of the divide. The result: chaos and more chaos.
Bush's recent announced build-up of troops in Iraq is to grab the initiative back from the Sunnis and Shiites. The build-up is almost complete, but it is highly unlikely that American forces can restore peace. Morale is low and they are homesick. The troops will continue to obey orders from their political masters, but have no heart to attain victory.
So, where does this leave the Americans? Despite what they are saying for public consumption at home, they are on the verge of defeat. This defeat is not a military one but a political one. After that, like the Crusaders 800 years ago, the Americans will leave Iraq and lose most of their influence in the Middle East. Oil supplies will suffer and prices will escalate far beyond what any nation could pay without suffering economic consequences. This is a disaster unfolding for the rest of the world.
Democrats in America have sensed the upcoming political upheaval and are using legislative tactics to bring the troops home. Somehow the Bush administration is not waking up to the reality. They are still dreaming of victory and the expulsion of Iran and al-Qaida from Iraq. It will not happen.
The Americans can either set a timetable to leave, or they may decide to fight on and suffer higher causalities. If they leave now they will salvage some prestige. The situation in Iraq is broken far beyond repair.
As the Americans leave, the 60 percent of the Iraqi population -- the Shiites -- that suffered under Sunni rule will opt for independence and friendly relations with Iran. Remember, the Iraqi Shiites are not from the same ethnic stock as the Shiites of Iran. The former are Arabs and the latter are Aryans. The Iraqi Shiites do not want another master -- they wish to be their own master with cultural and religious ties with Iran. Hence they may decide for complete independence.
The Sunnis of Iraq -- 30 percent of the population -- will grudgingly gain independence and stay friendly with neighboring Arab states. The net beneficiary will be the Kurds in the north, a different ethnic people, who are Sunnis but not Arabs. They will gain their long sought independence. They may start another fight in the neighborhood to grab a part of Iranian and Turkish territory, where Kurds live. But that will come later.
The sticking point will be the oil wealth of present-day Iraq. Much of it is in areas controlled by Shiites and Kurds, and the Sunnis will not give this up easily. Fighting will continue until a settlement is reached to share the oil wealth.
Historically, the British created the present-day Iraq after World War I, but did not factor in the future Shiite-Sunni divide. Thanks to the American machinations of the past 20 years, this divide has come to the forefront. Now the balkanization of Iraq is in the offing. Iraq will become three mini states, divided just like Yugoslavia 10 years back.
If a formula could be found to divide the oil proceeds of Iraq, an end to today's conflict could be hastened. This formula is unlikely to emerge without a fight, and the fight will continue with American presence or without American presence. It is inevitable.
The United States will have learned a valuable lesson for the future -- American values and the American system is not welcome elsewhere in the world. Also, the rest of the world may feel the pain of US$100 per barrel oil. That will hasten the search for an alternative form of energy. It is most likely that nuclear energy will emerge as the winner.
In short, it is the Americans who broke Iraq -- they are the ones who have to come up with a rescue plan. Military might is not an option. Pre-1990 Iraq is no longer feasible. Balkanization, along with a formula to share the oil proceeds, will ultimately be the solution. The monster of civil strife, which has been created by the Americans, will take a long time to control. Newly emerging Shiite power in the Middle East will keep Sunnis and Shiites busy between themselves. But this is bad news for the other issues that plague the Middle East, such as the fight between the Arabs and the Israelis.
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(Hari Sud is a retired vice president of C-I-L Inc., a former investment strategies analyst and international relations manager. A graduate of Punjab University and the University of Missouri, he has lived in Canada for the past 34 years. ©Copyright Hari Sud.)
