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The people of Bangladesh are used to confusing and contradictory announcements from the military-backed government, but these mixed messages make them wonder whether there will be any election at all in the upcoming months. However, the government and political parties both have a strong interest in making sure the elections take place.
In the past, whenever the armed forces took over government power in Bangladesh, the rulers put local elections as one of their first items of business, to show their "commitment" to the democratic process. It is recognized everywhere that local government institutions are the foundation of a democratic system -- even though this is a mockery in the context of Bangladeshi culture.
Elections provide a chance for individual politicians to show their power, popularity and prospects for advancement within their parties and localities, and for the parties to organize themselves and boost their supporters. Once their candidates are elected to positions, then that institution -- be it a union council, municipality or city corporation -- will be their own "property" for the next few years.
Each position creates money-making opportunities for the persons closely or politically affiliated with the person in the position, through the development work in that jurisdiction. Local politics and social life center on the elected person, bringing important changes in the person's political career and the party's prominence in the area.
The person in position starts his financial calculations right away -- it cost so much to win the election, so fifty times more must be earned in five years, and after ten years this much money should be in the bank. Such calculations are supplemented by the person's dreams for his future -- this five years as a chairman, the next five years as chairman plus a top party post, and after ten years contest for the parliamentary election.
On the other hand, for those who lose the election, life becomes a nightmare. They will likely face fabricated charges as a result of collaboration between the person in position and the local police. This way the opposition candidates are kept busy saving their lives rather than concentrating on promoting themselves to the voters ahead of the next election.
For the military government, holding elections are an equally lucrative business. In the past, they gave the rulers an opportunity to establish a neo-political support group consisting of the abandoned and hated persons of the community. Such people could win local government elections under two preconditions: the public must be discouraged from actually voting, and an environment must be created so that major political parties boycott the election.
Such elections have brought uncountable benefit to the rulers in Bangladesh. They have disheartened the major political parties by ensuring their absence in local elections, and the neo-political groups have been shaped into a new political party to ensure the prolonged existence of the ruling government, with power to win referendums or elections without mainstream voters.
Normally, the government holds local elections to ensure that its party representatives win them, which will keep local party activists busy with low-level positions that allow them to earn money by various means. There are many top leaders that don't want any new-generation leader to grow up, unless he is a relative. By keeping such people busy with low-profile positions, the top leaders keep them from challenging their own positions.
The political parties of Bangladesh do not practice democracy within their parties. They don't bother with the tiring process of nominating and voting for candidates for the general election, which requires elections in 300 constituencies. Instead of nominating candidates through any democratic process, the parties allow interested candidates to bid for nominations, and then select them according to their bid and their relationship with party decision-makers.
The political parties have many reasons to be worried about the upcoming parliamentary elections as well as those for local governments. If the government holds both together, it will be difficult for the parties to manage their candidates. If the local government candidates -- who would normally assist their party's candidates in the general elections -- remain busy with their own campaigns, it will affect the outcome of the general election.
Similarly, the military-backed government, which has been looking for a safe exit point and is worried about its fate after handing over power to an "elected government," is trying to create another neo-political group to protect itself.
The elections are a must-win gamble for both the government and the political parties. The common people of Bangladesh are caught between the ongoing calculations and machinations of the politicians.
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(Rater Zonaki is the pseudonym of a human rights defender based in Hong Kong, working at the Asian Human Rights Commission. He is a Bangladeshi national with a degree in literature from a university in Dhaka. He began his career as a journalist in 1990 and engaged in human rights activism at the grassroots level in his country for more than a decade. He also worked as an editor for publications on human rights and socio-cultural issues and contributed to other similar publications.)
