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Canada warming up to India

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Toronto, ON, Canada, — With the visit to India last week of Canadian Prime Minister Stephen Harper, Canada-India relations have been given an important boost. In the past, thanks to political obstructions, Canada failed to realize India’s importance, and Canadian businessmen had no access to India’s market of 1billion people.

Now the two countries have many reasons to draw closer together. Over half a million Indians have migrated to Canada and made it their home. Canada has become a center of high technology, which India desperately needs. Canada’s backing has already helped India in the international arena.

The late former Canadian Prime Minister Pierre Trudeau’s brand of international diplomacy had cast a long and unpleasant shadow on Canada-India relations. Trudeau, as prime minister from 1968 to 1984 with a short absence in 1980, had set a hard-line tone with India.

After India conducted a minor nuclear test in 1974, Trudeau broke off nuclear cooperation with India. He ignored the fact that a belligerent China on India’s border had been conducting nuclear tests since 1964. As a result, Canada-India relations were left to freeze in cold storage.

Canada caused considerable trouble to India in withdrawing from nuclear cooperation. Having built one unit, it left a second 220-megawatt unit at the Canadian-designed nuclear power plant in Rajasthan unfinished. It took India seven long years to complete the unfinished Unit 2 in 1981. Two more units were completed in 2000. Unit 5 of the project attained criticality this week and will be in operation next month; Unit 6 will follow in another month’s time.

Trudeau – out of pique with India and sympathy for Sikhs supposedly oppressed there – unwittingly allowed Sikh terrorists to set up shop in Canada in the late 1970s. This resulted in one of the worst commercial air disasters in 1985, when a bomb planted on an Air India flight from Montreal to Mumbai exploded over Irish airspace, killing all 329 passengers on board.

A lax government and conniving security agencies did not realize the impending danger until too late. Later, Canada was unable to successfully prosecute the perpetrators, although their identities were well established. India could not forget this disaster, and relations thereafter remained lukewarm.

Current Canadian Prime Minister Stephen Harper is trying to re-establish dialogue and reset Canada-India relations. Canada took the first step toward India last year when, as a member of the Nuclear Suppliers Group, it voted for a waiver of the ban on nuclear trade with India, in relation to the Indo-U.S. nuclear deal.

Harper’s visit to India from Nov. 15-18 was another step in the right direction. His visit is expected to boost future trade and business relations that have been below par so far. Canada-India trade now stands at a mere US$4 billion, but there is room to triple it within the next five years.

Today India, a US$3.2 trillion economy and a center for information technology and business process outsourcing, is poised for big times ahead. Canada does not wish to be left behind.

India needs Canadian-designed Candu reactors and uranium to generate nuclear energy, which can help India achieve its targets for lower carbon emissions. Canada could sell two to three major power plants to India and keep its nuclear industry humming for two decades. The supply of uranium can relieve India of the shortage it faces and help diversify its energy sources.

Additional technology from Canada can make India a hub for auto parts, pharmaceuticals and food processing. In return, Canada can source a lot of specialized products in India, which are high-priced in Canada.

Unfortunately, although agreements on these issues had been negotiated and were ready to be signed during Harper’s India visit, this did not happen. They may be signed sometime next year when Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh visits Canada. The stumbling block is the changed attitude of the United States under U.S. President Barack Obama’s administration.

A few other stumbling blocks remain. Sikh terrorists who found Canada hospitable in the 1970s and its security lax could create another incident in the coming years. They have lain low following the shame of blowing up 329 innocent Canadian passengers on a civilian airliner, but from time to time they show their face when newspaper editors or local citizens wish them out of their midst.

Now, reformed security agencies are on top of these terror threats. Also political attitudes toward India have changed. There will be no sympathetic Canadian politicians at fundraisers organized by terrorists in civilian garb.

There is also much to be gained from a conjoined Canada-India policy in Asia. A key example is Canada’s military involvement and India’s civilian aid to Afghanistan. For the past 20 years Afghanistan has been under the influence of Pakistan, where the likes of Osama bin Laden have been allowed to set up shop to undertake terror activities.

Canada chose to help the United States in its war on terror in Afghanistan while India has provided more than US$1 billion worth of developmental aid to Afghanistan to build roads, schools and other basic infrastructure. These two policies complement each other and need to be pursued to the end.

India and Canada are also in a position to thwart moves by China and Russia to undermine the U.S. currency during bad financial times. China dropped a hint of its intentions to raise its financial influence during the G-20 summit in Pittsburgh last September.

The United States cannot stand up to the China, as it has borrowed too much money from it. As a debtor, it is letting China run its foreign policy. This effort must be thwarted. The U.S. currency and its economy will soon recover, but until then the combined influence of nations who are not China’s debtors is required to guard the world economic order.

India in the next seven years will be an economic powerhouse. Its gross national product will double to US$6-7 trillion. Canadians should not lose out on this bonanza. They have already made a big mistake by importing US$40 billion of consumer goods from China, and selling next to nothing back. If unchecked, China will soon be dictating terms to Canada like it does to the United States. It is in Canada’s interest to diversify its imports of goods and services.

The Canada-India re-engagement should not be allowed to slow down. Although it took 35 years, the current momentum should be sustained.

All issues on civilian nuclear re-engagement should be overcome and all possible trade avenues must be explored. Canada’s move to open trade offices in the Indian cities of Kolkata and Hyderabad are steps in the right direction.

--

(Hari Sud is a retired vice president of C-I-L Inc., a former investment strategies analyst and international relations manager. A graduate of Punjab University and the University of Missouri, he has lived in Canada for the past 34 years. ©Copyright Hari Sud.)



[ Flag ]
Prakash @ December 12, 2009 08:29AM HKT
India should not buy Candu reactors, they are a failure. Do google for Candu reactors and see the data on this.

They are not safe (due to tritium emissions) and do not have good output. In fact, Canada has sold only 6 reactors in 30 years and India must be very careful about buying such stuff. Canada is the world's biggest producer of Uranium, which is useful for India. It should stop there.

[ Flag ]
harisuck @ December 2, 2009 03:22PM HKT
Why would a wire service such as UPI produce so much anti-chinese junk from such a chinese hater.

[ Flag ]
Louis @ December 1, 2009 04:52AM HKT

If you refer to Wiki, IMF whatsoever sources, it all not say what Enam says.
Whole Western world knows Indian loves to TALK BIG.
If India can achieve what Enam says, I will give Hari Sud a candy.
If not achieve, I will give Enam a candy for TALKING BIG.

[ Flag ]
Coolhead @ November 30, 2009 11:48AM HKT
slope,

"not the eastern china only"? Read this Time mag report:

time.com /time/magazine/article/0,9171,1940552,00.html

BofA Merrill Lynch Global Research calculates that the GDP of China's western provinces grew 9.3% in the first half of 2009, compared with 6.5% in the east. This trend is likely to continue. "Growth is shifting to the interior," says Ting Lu, a BofA Merrill Lynch economist.
...
BofA Merrill Lynch estimates that retail sales in the western provinces rose 19.2% in the first half of 2009, 3 percentage points more than in the east. "Xi'an has reached a very important development stage," explains Chen, Xi'an's mayor. "Incomes are just at the first point when people can buy homes and cars."



[ Flag ]
Coolhead @ November 30, 2009 11:35AM HKT
slope,

No one in China predicted that China will grow at 12% in the next 5 years, unlike some Indian hotheads predicting a wishful-thinking 12% growth rate for their own economy, which never happened before and will never happen in the foreseeable future.

[ Flag ]
Coolhead @ November 30, 2009 11:25AM HKT
slope,

Whether China ever reached 12% or not does not matter, what matters is that China has been growing much faster than India in past decades. Some people are so jealous that China has so much money that it is the largest holder of the US debt, aren't they? India simply does not have that much money.

[ Flag ]
Coolhead @ November 30, 2009 11:15AM HKT

HariSud,

So your 12% prediction is actually from Enam Securities, not from IMF. Why did you say "as per IMF" earlier? Conveniently hiding the fact that it is from an Indian brokerage firm, Enam? It's no surprise that an Indian firm like Enam will certainly exaggerate India economy size prediction.

[ Flag ]
Louis @ November 30, 2009 03:32AM HKT

Slope,If not mistaken, China ever reach 13%.
Dun underestimate them. Objective facts favor them.

[ Flag ]
slope @ November 30, 2009 02:24AM HKT
hey coolhead!!!
when did china have 12% growth rate? not according to independent sources. china doctors the figures to deceive the world. if someone from with in blows the whistle in china, he gets canned or even killed (preferably killed so that his organs can be sold out at a hefty profit). Its time that you sit down that you sit down with chinese dissidents and get the feel of an "overall china" not the eastern china only.
louis, you gotta go back to school to find the diff between PPP,GNP, and GDP rather than posting your unwise comments

[ Flag ]
HariSud @ November 30, 2009 01:08AM HKT

The "Economic Times title is as follows:

India to be $2 trillion economy by 2014-15: Enam

Dated Nov 17th.

Reference for overspending by the Chinese is as follows:

Chinese bank loans reach 27 per cent of 2009 GDP

Dated Nov 27th.

It is in b.domain

Cheers


Hari

[ Flag ]
Louis @ November 29, 2009 07:11PM HKT
That's why Hari Sud, to clear our doubt and improve accuracy of your article scientifically, pls provide the titles of your reference. Thanks

[ Flag ]
Coolhead @ November 29, 2009 01:07PM HKT

HariSud wrote:"Indian economy as per IMF will double by 2014-15 at the rate of 12% per year."

India's growth rate to accelerate to 6.5 per cent in 2010: IMF
29 Oct 2009, 2058 hrs IST, PTI

When was last time India had growth rate of 12% per year? Never happened. You must be dreaming.

[ Flag ]
Louis @ November 28, 2009 11:42PM HKT
HariSud

If you pls, can you just provide the mentioned The Economic times' article title (not address).


[ Flag ]
HariSud @ November 28, 2009 11:02PM HKT

The economy figures - Goods and services do not change whether expressed in nominal or PPP basis. Although two numbers could be different. Since the Chines love the larger number hence on a comparable terms Indian data is also given on the same basis.

Indian economy as per IMF will double by 2014-15 at the rate of 12% per year. The Economic times is the basis. (The website does not allow web addresses).

Chinese are about hit dirt, because Chinese government has forced banks to lend $1.4 trillion to failing real estate and factories in 2008-09 alone. Some of this money will go bad as it happened in Dubai four days back. Then the Chinese people would want their savings money back otherwise start a new revolution.

Cheers


Hari

[ Flag ]
Coolhead @ November 28, 2009 12:15PM HKT
For India, HariSud is using PPP GNP, which always shows the highest value, though he never misses a chance to point out "your China GDP is PPP" as if he never used PPP. Regardless of GDP/GNP/PPP/Nominal, two things from the IMF data:
1. IMF says by 2014, Indian economy will grow a total of about 60%, not double.
2. IMF says by 2014, Indian economy will be about 23% of Chinese economy.

[ Flag ]
Louis @ November 28, 2009 12:19AM HKT
"India in the next seven years will be an economic powerhouse. Its gross national product will double to US$6-7 trillion. "

I wish India all the best to achieve its GDP of US$6-7 trillion in the next seven years, though IMF projects next five years for India will be US$1.908 trillion (year 2014) and China of US$8.28 trillion.
A wealthy and peaceful India is good to the world. Hope India really do good to its people and be more modest but confident.








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