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This ore contains between 0.03 to 0.2 percent of triuranium octoxide, or U3O8 – an impure mixture of uranium oxides obtained in the processing of uranium ore – as U-238, which is the non-fissionable isotope found in natural uranium. International mines have anywhere from 2 to 14 percent.

Four mines in the Singhbhum district of Bihar state produce only 220 tons of uranium concentrate. In addition, 120 tons come from byproducts like tailings from phosphate, zinc and copper mines.

India’s 17 operating reactors require 500 to 600 tons of uranium concentrate annually. Additional amounts are needed for its weapons program. Two more mines in Meghalaya and Karnataka state may begin operations in the next four years, boosting output to about 600 tons. This might be enough to feed the existing nuclear reactors, but not enough for the ambitious nuclear power program the government wants to implement.

Generating 470,000 megawatts of nuclear energy by 2050, as envisaged by Prime Minister Manmohan Singh, will require huge amounts of uranium. This was a key reason for India to negotiate the Indo-U.S. nuclear deal and seek a waiver from the Nuclear Suppliers Group on the ban it faces on nuclear trade. Although the deal is settled, India still has to go through the international minefield of uranium-producing countries, which have a few hang-ups before they part with the ore.

A major initiative by India’s Department of Atomic Energy is also in progress to locate new ore bodies in India. Miners will go as deep as 1,000 meters to mine the ore. If successful, this may save India valuable time in negotiating agreements and deals with foreign suppliers.

As much as 100,000 tons of new ore is needed by India, but the chances of finding it in the country are slim. Therefore, it has to look at suppliers elsewhere.

Australia has 24 percent of the world’s known uranium reserves of 5.5 million tons. It is followed by Kazakhstan with 17 percent, Russia and Canada with 10 percent each, South Africa and the United States with 7 percent each, Namibia, Brazil and Niger with 5 percent each, and 1 percent each for India, China, Mongolia and Tajikistan. The NSG tightly controls these supplies, to restrict unauthorized trade of this vital and dangerous commodity.

Mined ore must be made into yellow cake, using sophisticated technology, with 80 percent U3O8 content. Then the yellow cake is made into pallets to be fed into the reactor core. To make nuclear weapons, uranium must be converted to gas and then diffused into the concentrated U-235 isotope.

So high-grade uranium ore is highly valued, and India has been scrambling for a year to locate and ensure its supply. Prior to the NSG’s blanket approval, India was facing a shortfall of 50 percent.

Without uranium the country’s 17 nuclear reactors were running at half capacity of 4,000 megawatts. The NSG’s timely clearance brought quick supplies from France and Russia.

India is now looking for uranium in the unexplored areas of Mongolia, Kazakhstan, Niger, Tajikistan and Namibia. Australia is not an option; it sells uranium to China, but continues to deny it to India because it has not signed the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty and the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty.

China has also cornered the bulk of Kazakhstan’s uranium by offering it trade and other economic incentives in the last 10 years. But India achieved a major breakthrough when Kazakh Foreign Minister Marat Tazhin visited India in January and signed a host of nuclear, space exploration and energy agreements. These agreements, including economic tie-ups, will enhance cooperation and ensure continuous uranium supplies to India. In return, India will help the Kazakhs with information technology.

In the last few months a slew of agreements with other producers like Namibia, Tajikistan, Kazakhstan, Mongolia and Niger have been signed to ensure future uranium supplies to India. Also, reactors built by France, Russia and the United States will supply uranium through a tripartite agreement.

Thus, uranium from Kazakhstan could end up in a reactor sold by Russia or uranium from Niger in a reactor supplied by France. The United States and Canada would supply uranium from their own sources.

Thanks to these high-powered efforts, India’s uranium supply is fairly well guaranteed. But suppliers could still hold up orders citing minor excuses so, as a precautionary measure, India needs a stockpile of three to five years’ supply.

Anticipating high demand from India and China, and with the United States possibly opening up for additional nuclear energy, the price of yellow cake shot up to US$95 in 2007. The current prices, at US$40 to $45 per pound of U3O8, are three times higher than those from 1996 to 2004. From 1994 to 2004 prices were low due to the availability of uranium from decommissioned U.S. and Russian weapons. But prices took off when these supplies ran dry.

Although India has very little uranium , it has an abundance of thorium, which is another nuclear reactor feedstock. India’s first 300-megawatt reactor using thorium is under construction, designed by the Bhabha Atomic Research Center. The process will burn mostly thorium and a bit of plutonium. If the test design is successful, it will pave the way for replacing uranium with thorium, which is four times more abundant.

Singh has envisaged a three-pronged strategy for India to generate nuclear power. Stage 1 is the current technology of pressurized heavy-water reactors, which are under construction or on order.

Stage 2 will introduce fast breeder reactors that use plutonium from stage 1 and thorium in the reactor core. By 2020 India may be building more stage 2 reactors of indigenous design than the current heavy-water reactors.

Stage 3 is the most ambitious. It will use U-233 from stage 2 and thorium. If India perfects the thorium – U-233 core design and a matching reactor, it will achieve a major technological breakthrough. Construction of this type of reactors is 20 years away.

So India needs the Indo-U.S. nuclear deal for stage 1 nuclear power generation, after which it will be self-sufficient. It may still import specialized equipment that falls under the purview of the deal as well as NSG review, but it will dictate terms. During stage 1 it may still need to import uranium, which will put India again under the NSG scanner.

Nevertheless, India’s current uranium shortage has been addressed. Imports are the way to go until the fast breeder reactor technology is perfected.

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(Hari Sud is a retired vice president of C-I-L Inc., a former investment strategies analyst and international relations manager. A graduate of Punjab University and the University of Missouri, he has lived in Canada for the past 34 years. ©Copyright Hari Sud.)