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The point is that the world’s population will continue to grow unless there is a conscious effort by mankind to limit its growth, or if nature imposes some kind of control like the recent earthquake in China or the cyclones and tsunamis in South and Southeast Asia.
In 1798 an English economist, Thomas Malthus, gained fame by arguing that population grows at a geometric rate while food output grows at an arithmetic rate, making food scarcity inevitable. His theory was dismissed for promoting pessimism on the grounds that it failed to consider technological advances in agriculture and food production.
While high population growth is a burden on poor countries, shrinking population in some developed countries is a concern and citizens are encouraged to raise families in order to avert labor shortages in the future.
However, the situation in developing countries is quite the opposite since unemployment rates are extremely high – in some cases as high as 60 percent – and there are inadequate resources to provide citizens with even the bare necessities of food, clothing and shelter. For India with a population of 1.15 billion, this means preparing dinner for an extra 50,000 people every single night of the year. For an impoverished nation like Ethiopia with a per capita GDP of only US$800 per year and a population growth rate of 2.23 percent, it means feeding over 4,700 additional mouths every day.
A key factor in population growth is education. The higher the level of education, the lower the population growth. An educated person is likely to delay marriage or having a child until a steady income has been secured. Studies have shown that where the education levels in affluent societies are high, growth rates are low.
Although population growth rates among educated people in developing countries has declined, the same rates within the underprivileged class, who constitute a majority, remains high. Since the poor have no steady income – some living a hand to mouth existence – they want more children as security and support in their old age. So, they usually get married at an early age and produce children whom they cannot educate or support. The irony is that the children raised in such circumstances tend to follow the same path. Due to this, the reduction in population growth among educated people in developing countries is compensated by the increase among the underprivileged.
Bangladesh, the seventh largest country by population, has made improvements in education, healthcare, and has achieved a respectable economic growth rate of 5 percent annually, on average, in recent years. Yet, the country’s poverty level has not declined but rather increased. In addition to the massive corruption in the country, the high growth rate among its underprivileged population is a major contributor to the high levels of poverty. The country adds about 3 million to its population every year and at the current growth rate of 2.02 percent, per the World Factbook (a lower growth rate is quoted in other reports) the country’s population of 150 million is likely to double in 35 years. This would be similar to the current U.S. population living within the confines of the state of Wisconsin, which is the size of Bangladesh.
As sea levels rise due to the possible effects of global warming, half the landmass of Bangladesh is expected to submerge into the sea within the next 50 years. This would cause a massive humanitarian tragedy for heavily populated countries like Bangladesh whose low lying land mass merges with the sea.
The World Bank’s report on the supply of food predicts massive starvation in developing countries with a highly dense population, unless developed countries make a concerted effort to increase food production.
Thus, the challenge of population growth is real for developing countries. In fact, the prospect of their achieving meaningful economic expansion seems to hinge greatly on their ability to limit population growth, especially among the underprivileged. Realizing this fact, China has taken the most drastic measure – restricting the number of children per family to one. China is in a unique situation to adopt such a policy, as its Communist Party continues to exercise total control over government policy. As a result, the country is expected to slip to second place in population after India.
However, social scientists worry that China’s one-child policy could create a serious population imbalance between men and women since most parents prefer a male child over a female, which is a common phenomenon in developing countries. Currently 119 boys are born in China for every 100 girls. Much of this is the result of the one-child policy and the availability of technology that enables the determination of the sex of the fetus and the availability of selective abortion. China apparently has 18 million more males of marriageable age than females.
Nevertheless, for populous and conservative societies like Bangladesh, India, Indonesia and Pakistan where neither a viable social security system nor a strong authoritarian government exists, the Chinese policy of one child per family would be hard to implement. The biggest hurdle these countries face is the wrath of religious fundamentalists. Less educated people are easily manipulated in the name of religion. The argument that children are the gift of God and are cared for by God is still embraced by many underprivileged people whose attitudes are hard to change.
India, in the past, tried to restrict its population growth through legislation, but had to abandon the policy under tremendous pressure. Yet, some countries are now openly discussing and weighing the policy that China has adopted – one child per family. In a recent meeting of the Bangladesh Population Council, local experts recommended precisely such a policy.
Population growth in developing countries can be restricted by establishing some kind of social security system for the elderly, mandating a minimum age for marriage, discouraging people from getting married or having a child in the absence of a steady income, and requiring women to attend a prescribed class on sexuality, health, hygiene, childbearing, family planning and birth control before marriage.
Educating women on family matters is the best way to achieve the desired goal of population stabilization as well as providing basic healthcare, which most developing countries are struggling to achieve. Considering the consequences, developing countries can ill afford not to confront population problems head on.
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(Mahfuz R. Chowdhury is a professor of economics at C.W. Post Campus of Long Island University, New York. ©Mahfuz R. Chowdury)
