Font size: 
The famine forced the communist leadership to swallow its much-touted pride of "juche," or self-reliance, to appeal for international handouts to feed its people. The country slowly recovered from the famine thanks to food and fertilizer aid from South Korea and other countries, but it could face another famine, as summer floods again destroyed this year's grain harvest.
Kwon Tae-jin, a senior researcher at the Korea Rural Economic Institute in Seoul, estimates the floods have cut the North's autumn agricultural output by as much as 500,000 tons, nearly a tenth of the country's minimum demand for grains. He estimates damage to the farming sector at more than US$275 million, or 1 percent of the country's gross domestic product.
North Korea needs at least 5.2 million tons of food until autumn next year, but its grain production this year is expected to be no more than 3.8 million. "North Korea is facing a shortfall of 1.4 million metric tons of food over the year," Kwon said. The North produced 4.5 million tons of grain last year. "The North's food inventory has almost hit the bottom, so there would be a situation next year similar to the late 1990s without special measures," he said.
According to a Seoul-based aid group, an increasing number of North Koreans in remote regions have already been dying from starvation or hunger-related diseases. Kwon and other analysts have said the North is likely to wage another "painful march under trial" to overcome the acute food shortages.
The North launched its first "painful march" campaign after the abrupt death in 1994 of the country's national founder Kim Il Sung and subsequent famine, which caused a sharp rise in refugees leaving the country. The country announced an end to the painful march in late 1997 and instead launched a new campaign to turn the country into a "Kangsong Taeguk," or a powerful and prosperous country -- which was followed by the test firing of a long-range Taepodong missile in 1998.
But Kwon said the devastated farming sector could lead to another economic crisis and political instability, because agriculture accounts for 26.7 percent of the country's GNP, much higher than that of South Korea, which stands at 3.7 percent.
Agricultural workers number 8.5 million, or some 37 percent of the North's total population. "Given that the North runs its industry at under 30 percent of its capacity due to energy shortages, agriculture is essential to the country's economic growth and social stability," he said.
But defectors from the North have said widespread famine is unlikely in their communist homeland, thanks to fledgling market mechanisms from the grassroots and a brisk border trade with China. Kim Min-se, who defected to Seoul in 2005, said the 3.8 million tons of annual grain output plus outside aid is enough to feed its 23 million people.
"The North has rationed 550 grams of food to each adult per day and 300 grams to each elderly person or child," he said. The North has some 7-8 million people aged over 64 and children under 15, which means that some 4 million tons of food is enough to feed the whole population, Kim said. The North has been given some 400,000 tons of rice aid from the South every year in addition to shipments from its only remaining communist ally, China.
South Korea's civic aid agency Good Friends said food prices remain stable in the North, ruling out famine and massive deaths from hunger. "North Koreans no longer entirely depend on state food rationing, which has been irregular. They get their food and basic necessities in the markets," Kim said.
Under economic reforms introduced in 2002, North Koreans are allowed to trade vegetables, meats and other foodstuff in local markets across the country. The reform measures, called "July 1 Economic Management Improvement Measures," permit individuals and corporations to run for-profit operations in the country.
"If food prices go up, border traders import more food from China. The invisible hand of the market will prevent mass famine in the North," Kim said, stressing the marketization of the North Korean economy is the key to resolve the country's chronic food shortages.
